microstakes bankroll builder

Full Tilt purchase news, and Player Funds

2011-10-01T11:44:00.005+01:00

It seems finally FullTilt’s owners are beginning to understand that any deal is better than no deal, althoughI would imagine they have been “encouraged” to reach this conclusion, not by their caring for the outstanding player funds that they have refused to give back, but by their lawyers advising them that it may help their case. Hence it looks like there finally is a buyer, through the French investor Groupe Bernard Tapie.

No matter what happens I believe a deal with someone will happen, sometime. The DoJ understands that a lot of its young citizens have money tied up there, and it doesn’t want to bite its nose to spite its face . So a compromise will be found for the $1 billion in restitution for alleged bank fraud. Sensible profit orientated investors will see beyond the current mire and will see the long term profitability of the assets. I believe everyone will see their money at some time.

Post Black Friday it’s clear online poker is a still a fatted goat, and I for one would not rush to take my money of the site once it is reinstated and the site back online. And neither should you if you want to keep playing poker online and you’re not from the States.

Why?

First I don’t see them ever making a similar disgusting error again as the eyes of the community will be on them (never mind the authorities), and second, the Rush Poker format which I would imagine the patent ownership will go as a condition of the sale, is, quite simply, worth hundreds of millions in revenues in its own right.

Personally I hope Ferguson, Lederer and Ivy go to jail. Deal or no deal. I really do. Their silence on the issue over the past 6 months (notwithstanding Ivey’s nonsense, see my previous post), whether being advised by lawyers or not, makes me sick. They took the money for many years. They part-owned the company. They traded whilst being insolvent. They stole from us.

Thoughts on Fulltilt, Black Friday, Phil Ivey and Pure Greedy Rich Bastards

2011-06-15T11:15:00.007+01:00

I didn’t have much to say about the DOJ and poker’s “big three” after Black Friday (although I was worried by it, having $10k online at the time), but with Ivey entering the picture, the whole thing changes perspective once more, and I do have thoughts on that.

Taking the points in order, I think the complaints from the poker community fall into two areas

1) “the DOJ is evil and stupid, how dare they, etc etc” and “the USA sucks, casino conspiracy" etc etc
2) "I want my money back" etc etc

Regarding point 1, if we take the time to read the charges and the build up to them, I don't see much that the sites can say to defend themselves. Let's even ignore the long DoJ indictment, and talk about the context of Black Friday. They were repeatedly warned about illegal activity, it wasn't just a bolt out of the blue, which makes it all the more stupid, or maybe just plain greedy, given the billions that were still to be had, even without the fatted pig of the American market. And us, the humble grinders????.....C’mon, we all knew what they were doing was breaking the law.

Lets hear it from someone who knows, how about Bwin joint CEO Norbert Teufelberger. Now Bwin is only the world's largest publicly traded online gambling firm (owning among others, Party Poker). In 2006, not only did Bwin pull out of the US due to the UIGEA legislation, but in August 2010 Teufelberger warned that FTP and Stars were illegally transacting using fake processing and that they would be prosecuted. Hell, his comments were even published in various mainstream industry magazines. It was no secret that an impending prosecution was on the cards.

One could argue (somewhat coldly perhaps) that the only stupid people here were not the DOJ, but instead any dumb American grinder who thought his money might be safe on an illegal (in his state, at least) gaming site.

It's irrelevant whether one agrees with DOJ and the legislation behind it, who does in fact??, but it is the fucking law in the most powerful country in the world for chrissakes, and you just can't go around whining about laws that you think are unfair, and thus justifying your breaking them. There's a lot of dumb Christians out there who think homosexuals should be put down, and they are in no doubt about their ideas being above any law. Should we just let them wander around doing God's work and stoning all these sinners??

Regarding point 2, this is where it gets interesting and gives my motivation for posting. Mr Ivey comes in and sues. He’s got tonnes of money, so must have good people advising him, and he’s of course super intelligent (poker is a game of skill, and he’s the best after all…) And in doing so, sets back the resolution process catastrophically. Here's why.....

So his main claim seems to centre around two areas, him being mislead by FTP and the misusing of players funds by FTP by diverting them to investments with the profits not needing to be channeled back to FTP allegedly.... (in true Robert Maxwell style) leaving them with liquidity problems (ie not enough cash in bank) despite massive overall worth.

And this is where the colossal moronic stupidity of his claims lies. Lets even leave out the nonsense about him somehow not realising that the UIGEA laws were passed making online cash transactions illegal in the US, lets accept that as he continued to take a slice of their illicitly fattened profits unquestionably, Ivey just kinda uhhh.....shrugged.... at the many many gaming sites who didn’t challenge the big three’s monopoly in the US, cos they just……er……liked them or something??? (nothing to do with their being worried about being prosecuted by the DOJ, Phil?)

No, what really makes this arrogant git’s actions so utterly idiotic, is his Robin Hood claim to make a stand for “solidarity” as he puts it, for the ordinary players (ie you and me) to help them get their money back. What he has actually done, being the biggest name in pokerworld, is start a run on the bank.

Because this is what Fullltilt primarily is, a virtual bank, and which, tragically, the fuck-you-all owners of Fulltilt have allowed to become vulnerable to insolvency due to aforementioned alleged greedy misuse of liquidity. A frenzied withdrawal activity, which had died down from the non-Americans after Black Friday, rears up in even bigger form as panic ensues for all players everywhere after Ivey's high profile $150m lawsuit is made public. In light of the above, I would suggest its got nothing to do with “solidarity” and everything to do with greed and self-protection. As the main face of FTP and a part owner, the sanctimonious prick should be up there in the dock with the rest of them. Being a part owner in four companies myself, the notion that I don't make it my business to know what the fuck is going on each year in them (and thus absolve myself of any responsibility) is simply absurd.

The losers in this are the players, not only in the USA, but the world over, as the filthy rich on both sides of this lawsuit attack each other's greed in public, and through Fulltilt's inevitable counterclaim against Ivey, at the expense of this important poker site that definitely still had an essential role to play in the future of online poker and its regulation, regardless of the outcome of these indictments. If the run on the bank continues, insolvency is a very real possibility for FTP.

Thanks Phil.

Ego and Me

2011-05-29T17:23:00.003+01:00

Hell yeah, I have a problem with ego. It never used to bother me, in fact, I thought it was a positive thing. Helps with confidence, creativity and standing out in the crowd.

I like the way in life, through experience, you get to change your view.

Some of the best people I know have little ego, and it seems to help them making good decisions, and not be influenced by irrelevant factors. They also are almost always, universally liked by their peers.

I'm trying to address ego in me.

It's helping me in a number of ways, one of which is poker. A big ego can be the cause of many tilt issues, but one of the biggest is one's perception of entitlement. Playing less hands at the moment to continue to work on this.

Thoughts on Rush Poker and My Pokerstars Microstakes Bankroll Project

2011-04-14T11:47:00.006+01:00

I have been experimenting with various different games in the last few months, and one of these has been Full Tilt’s Rush Poker. One of the appeals to me is that you don’t need to bother with table selection, seat position, table breakups, and the main one, hands per hour is almost four times that of normal tables.

I started with 6 max, and I have to say that over 20k hands I just couldn’t get comfortable with it. I don’t know what it was, but I seemed to be getting raised off every flop, and whenever I shoved, I was crushed. I ran 5bi below equity over the small sample, which didn’t help, but I still never felt I had the control in many pots. There was tons of 5bet shoving in levelling wars with garbage like 89s in the bb versus the sb, for example. It felt far more aggressive than normal 6max, and I struggled with the lack of time to make decisions. I fired up some normal speed tables at same stakes, and I realised that was the problem. 6max is all about hand reading and selective aggression, bluffing is a big part of the game. I’m happy to accept I cannot do that without more time/reads/history to consider.

So I’m trying full ring. Here it’s a value-based game, where a more ABC style is fine, extracting the most from your strong hands and giving up more on your weaker ones, which means I don’t have to beat myself up about not being aggressive enough etc.

Turning now to Pokerstars, I am having a great time at the micro micros, trying to build up a bankroll there from $20, see my previous post on this here. I am just about to go up to $25nl as I am up to $700. I just stack 6 tables on my tiny laptop when I fancy a game.

Observations? $5nl is so straightforward I don’t think there is much to say, I played a very loose style, double barrelling a lot and seemingly picking up a ton of folds. I only ever 3 bet for value.
$10nl starts to see a bit of knowledgeable players, scattered between recreational and maniac players, who are either ubernits or aggro donks and its easy to adjust accordingly. Here a bit more selective agression, and try to avoid coin flips.

So I will keep going with it till I get to $50nl and then decide what I want to do, as I will then have decent bank rolls at both tilt and stars, and be able to make a judgement on which is the better site to play small stakes games 50nl up to 100nl.

Heres the graph so far, which is missing about the first 5k or so.

Folding KK Pre flop

2011-01-25T15:35:00.006Z

Our poker education is never ending, but I know there are many who think folding Kings pre is a complete joke.

At 6max it's harder to ever fold 1oobb deep (200+bb deep it's a different story), although when a nit running at 14/12 UTG raises and you 3bet in the SB, and he shoves, there is only 3 hands he can have. KK, AK and AA. KK performs 39% to that range, factoring in card elimation. We are crushed. He is never bluffing.

If we include a wider range of QQ, (where flatting is the norm) we are 54%. So calling a jam is so very very likely for us to be way behind. And we think we have an edge in the game???? So let the flip go.

When we get to full ring the fold is even easier, and when we get deep stacked, it's a no brainer. The following example shows how easy it could be 250bb deep to stack even "competent" players, who will never ever ever fold KK pre.

Poker Stars NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players

LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+2: 263.40 BB
MP1: 141.20 BB
MP2: 257 BB
CO: 48.80 BB
Hero (BTN): 250 BB
SB: 100.40 BB
BB: 107.60 BB
UTG: 51.80 BB
UTG+1: 258.40 BB

Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to 3BB, 3 folds, MP2 raises to 10BB, CO folds, Hero calls 10BB,
(utg is an unknown, 52bb deep, 3bettor is running 19/13 over 75 hands with no 3bets and 257bb deep. Its an easy cold call of the 3 bet. I want to keep in UTG assuming he is behind, and I do not want to fold out 3bettors hands I am ahead of.)

2 folds, UTG raises to 51.8BB and is All-In, MP2 raises to 257BB and is All-In, Hero folds
(I am certain at least one of these players, if not both, have AA.)

Flop: (115BB) 3 Q 3 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Turn: (115BB) Q (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: (115BB) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: 115BB Pot (5.6BB Rake)
MP2 mucked K K and LOST (-51.8BB NET)
UTG showed A A and WON 109.4BB (+57.6BB NET)

Had I had AA on the button, I was winning the entire stack of my deep stacked friend. I mean, how much more obvious does it need to be when UTG shoves after a 3bet and a cold call???

What about the LAGS, what about the retards.....blah blah. I think you need a very good reason to call an all in in this spot, and that would include reads on 4betting and shoves over 300+ hands. In absence of that info......

Thoughts on bluffing and "history"

2011-01-15T19:36:00.009Z

You have to bluff.

If you don't, its likely you can only be a break even player at the tables, unless you are consistently lucky, which I am not. Bluffing works best when you play deep stacked. 100bb deep or less, and they are usually OK about getting it in with TPGK. Most of you reading this will no doubt be content getting it all in pre flop with AK on a coin flip. I have blogged about this previously in detail if you care to look. I find it bizarre that everyone is delighted to be getting it in with 47% equity preflop, but nevertheless, that's the way it seems to be. Why not just play roulette and stick it all on red?

So making big bluffs at 100bb deep is risky, you are usually getting called.

Here I lose a big pot making a bluff 250bb deep, but bluffing at deep stacked poker carries investment value that can pay us off later on.

NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players

LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: 100 BB
UTG: 215.20 BB
Hero (CO): 263.20 BB
BTN: 101 BB
SB: 255.40 BB

Pre-Flop: 6 3 dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG raises to 4BB, Hero calls 4BB, 3 folds
UTG is a tight nit 17/14 who only cbets when he has something.

Flop: (9.4BB) 2 5 J (2 Players)
UTG bets 6BB, Hero raises to 19BB, UTG calls 13BB
With my gutshot, and such a dry board, with is both deep, I make my mind up to bluff. I am aiming to get AJ+ to fold by the river. I do have a tiny amount of implied odds should I hit my gutshot, plus a decent amount of fold equity from AK/AQ, and mid pocket pairs.

Turn: (47.4BB) 6 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets 32BB, UTG calls 32BB
One could check here, as the 6 hits my hand for showdown value, but I am still sure I am beat, and think a big barrel can get a fold. It's clear he has a single pair hand, as a set is not check calling that turn usually.

River: (111.4BB) 2 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets 92BB, UTG calls 92BB
In for a penny.......

Results: 295.4BB Pot (14.4BB Rake)
UTG showed Q Q and WON 281BB (+134BB NET)
Hero showed 6 3 and LOST (-147BB NET)
I know, I know, he's a station, but man, how can you call there with QQ, I scream at the screen. Deep down, though, I think I am just an idiot.

So that was the bluffing bit, now to the "history" bit........

NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: 125 BB
BB: 62.50 BB
UTG: 434.75 BB
Hero (CO): 319.50 BB
BTN: 317 BB

Pre-Flop: 8 6 dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG raises to 5BB, Hero calls 5BB, BTN calls 5BB, 2 folds
So same scenario as before, I float off the aforementioned Mr Nit calling stations dumb UTG over-raise, with a hand just right for such an occasion, cracking his big pairs and getting paid off with his handsome stack.

Flop: (16.75BB) 7 A 9 (3 Players)
UTG bets 11BB, Hero calls 11BB, BTN folds
I have 34% against his range here, plus the implied odds, which are huge, so an easy call.

Turn: (38.75BB) 2 (2 Players)
UTG bets 25.75BB, Hero calls 25.75BB
I pick up the flush draw, to give me 9 more outs, and I am up against at least AK, AQ, AAA, 999, 777. I have 30% against this range, so it's an ok call, but I am really only calling this bet, because of my image as a bluffer.

River: (90.25BB) T (2 Players)
UTG bets 60BB, Hero raises to 277.75BB and is All-In, UTG calls 217.75BB
Oh beautiful Ten, the nut card. Station bets 2/3 pot, and my bluffing from our previous encounter now pays dividends, as I overshove jam the pot in a pretty bluffy way, very much expecting a call from his second best hands.

Results: 645.75BB Pot (32BB Rake)
UTG showed K A and LOST (-319.5BB NET)
Hero showed 8 6 and WON 613.75BB (+294.25BB NET)
In the previous bluff, I lost 147bb repping a set which he was incable of believing, here I rep a straight, and he is equally as non believing, and I make win a 645bb pot, and make a profit from my bluffing investment of 176bb. On a side note, really scary that someone would pay a bet like that off. Guy called me a moron in the chat.

Guess I'm not an idiot after all.

Pokerstars Microstakes

2011-01-13T13:09:00.006Z

I transferred all my money off Pokerstars 18 months ago after a failed attempt at full ring mass tabling. Out of sheer boredom one evening before going to bed I had a look at the site and checked out some of the Isilder1 stuff. Then I noticed I have 30k of FPPs just sitting there. So I go and buy a $20 bonus token and fire up 2 tables of 200bb 6max 5nl tables.

I forgot just how great the software is there and had a blast playing these stakes for an hour. Crazy plays, 5 way pots, calling all-ins with bottom pairs v maniacs, all good.

So I think I will have some fun with this on my tiny laptop in front of the telly or whatever, and see if I can grind it up. I haven’t really blogged about stakes below 50nl but I think I can actually learn a lot there, which I hope to share here. I intend to use it for experimenting with different formats, providing I don’t busto. 20bi and I move up, if I get as far as 25nl I need 50bi, and anymore is wishful thinking. To make it worthwhile, I will only be playing the deep tables, preferable with antes, for 250bb.

Meanwhile I hope to get something organised where I can play my regular stakes at FTP within the next week or so. I really want to make a serious attempt at poker this year, and to do that, I need to get away from variance, and therefore I need to get closer to 50k months, and I am nowhere near that.

This year's poker, and is it getting harder?

2010-12-19T19:53:00.004Z

This is normally the time to be publishing my thoughts on my years poker, and putting up a nice graph. This is where I was last year, see here. I had really high ambitions this time last year for a successful year, and to move up stakes. I was playing between 30 to 40k hands minimum per month last year, but this year its been 3 or 4k!!! This has been due to becoming very busy in my own business, which in turn has stopped my ability to spend a couple of hours each day playing. So there really is no point in doing a review of my year because of that. It's been disappointing, as I really would have liked to take a shot. Maybe 2011?

This year I have read a lot of posts on others' blogs about how the games are getting harder. Lots of moaning from established players who maybe made a lot through the "party" years as they call it, when the online boom started, who say its all drying up, and everyone knows what they are doing at the tables now . ...Seems a lot of sour grapes to me. Some of these dudes think they have some kind of right to other peoples money. Maybe they are just average players after all.

I don't think the games are getting harder per say, but I do think they are getting stupidly aggressive. Like super stupid. Many competent players at 6max in blind v blind, or 3betting v button will now be content to get into raising wars and all in pre with just baby pocket pairs, and other such their stupid obsession with fold equity giving them no option but to call a shove once they have built up a large pot pre and the odds they are offered. Post flop there is just a ton of non believing going on, which is shifting down from higher stakes I guess. All of these things combined make it harder to dip in and out of the games, as the aggressive dynamic takes some getting used to. The alternative is to move down stakes. My own strategy has been to reduce my bluffing and increase my value betting, as well as just 3betting for value, and just forget about 3bet bluffing.

I just haven't played enough to know how I am doing myself, but one thing I have noticed at 100nl is how the many of the regular players seem utterly incapable of folding. There is definitely a time for making bluffs at these limits, but aside from the "stab-and-give-up-pots", you need to be prepared to barrel your whole stack by the river to get a fold, and it's not my favourite situation.

Here is a hand to sum up, which contains all of the points above, where I am playing a competent experienced player , and where so much value lies.

LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $252.10
Hero (BTN): $282.95
SB: $100.50
BB: $77.25

Pre-Flop: 8 8 dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2.50, SB raises to $9, BB folds, Hero calls $6.50
Standard Reg stats with 11% 3bet , most of it in the blinds. I would actually fold sometimes in this spot, but not against an 11% range and the now fashionable double barrelling stats, with me in position. I can play quite close to optimally with my position. (Folding to any broadway, bet folding all other flops, or check/calling/folding, depending on the usual stuff)

Flop: ($19) 8 5 4 (2 Players)
SB bets $10, Hero calls $10
I flop the set. All the decision making now is about how to extract his stack.

Turn: ($39) 6 (2 Players)
SB bets $22, Hero calls $22
Villian repping the overpair.

River: ($83) 3 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $241.95 and is All-In, SB calls $59.50 and is All-In
The only likely 7 he can have here is pocket 7s (I was going busto to 67s no matter what happened), so he either has a hand like AK which will check fold, or the overpair, which might call a shove, and will certainly call a smaller value bet. Having done the maths on how often you need to get a call on the river with an overbet to make it profitable, (the equation hinges on how often you think your opponent with call you ...X%...) the x% calling range has become so high now at 6max, that its a no contest to jam the pot here.
Results: $202 Pot ($2 Rake)
Hero showed 8 8 and WON $200 (+$99.50 NET)
SB mucked 9 9 and LOST (-$100 NET)

Table bullies, maths and baby pairs

2010-09-30T17:56:00.012+01:00

I normally just up-sticks and find another table when I have a non-spewy aggro donk (meaning, most likely one of the better 100nl players at 6max) seated on my left, but when there's some bad players at same table sitting to left, you just got to hang around sometimes.

That can lead to some interesting table dynamics, which in turn can lead to some high variance pots. As I have a pretty robust bankroll for these stakes, I don't have a problem with adjusting my play to their ranges and betting styles, and the history that develops between us through 100 or more hands, normally too small a sample to make anything clear pre or post based on stats alone.

Here I wake up with AQo in the cut off, and even before I raise, I am almost sure the Mr aggro on the button will 3bet. He has a 15% 3bet, but more importantly, over 283 hands, almost all of that has been against me. I have 4 betted him once, where he folded, but the other six or seven times in this session, I have folded. It's what I do I guess.

Here I 4bet to just under one sixth of my stack, as we are playing 140bb effective stacks. I have decided a while back, once we became deep, that there will be no 4bet bluffs from me against him, it's just too likely that he can outplay me if he decides to call or whatever. In other words, unless I am certain he has me crushed, I probably am going with the hand.

Instead of folding, or flatting my 25bb, he insta shoves, which really surprises me. I time bank and finally call all-in.

Pre-Flop: A Q dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, BTN raises to $10.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $25, BTN raises to $199 and is All-In, Hero calls $109.40 and is All-In

The first thing to note here is that hands like AA-QQ I don't believe would normally do that this deep, in position, from a good player. They would think about it first.....,and if including card reduction therefore I think its only around 15% of the time. I would have 24% in that scenario

That leaves AK or a bluff/crazy play with baby pair. He has folded to only one 4bet previously, out of 3 in total. I used to play deep stacks at full ring, and it was rare to see a shove from a good player with AK at 200bb. I would rarely do it. But AK is a possibility, say 15% likely. I would have 27% in that scenario.

So here is where the history comes in. I have set up a "3bet in position" stat on my hud, which showes how often a player 3bets in position. I am amazed to see that over the 200 or so hands we have played at the table, he 3bets my raise from any position a staggering 38%. To assign a proper range to that is difficult, but I think it will be pretty wide, as good aggro players understand fold equity very well against a positional player like me, and I also 4bet-fold too. I think he might do any pair 22-TT, suited connectors and gappers, some Axs hands, and a few random bluffs like JTo, 64o. This is a 13% range, wide because of our history as noted, and his aggodonkishness. I have 58% to this range, and I think its 70% certain he is playing like that based on the above.

our expected value might be something like this therefore:

$EV=15%(24%x270) x 15%(27%x270) x 70% (58% x270) = $130.48

I am getting actual pot odds of 40% to call all in (pot is 162bb, 110bb for me to call) , it costs me $11o and my $EV is $130.48. I think its profitable and a decent call, even though it's a situation I would normally try to avoid even arising.

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (CO): $134.40
BTN: $199
SB: $100
BB: $101.50
UTG: $73
MP: $26.75

Flop: ($270.30) Q T 7 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Turn: ($270.30) 6 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($270.30) J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $270.30 Pot ($3 Rake)

Hero showed A Q and WON $267.30 (+$132.90 NET)
BTN showed 9 9 and LOST (-$134.40 NET)

Let me know if you think I spewed, or if you think my maths is out, which it could well be. Of course I didn't do these sums at the time, but I do away from the tables, and therefore decisions like this do become easier with a 30 seconds of thinking.

Finally, and most importantly, let me emphasise that calling an all in with 110bb behind with only 25bb invested is, normally a terrible play, and an auto fold. With 75bb behind, without history, I'm still considering a fold, although my 4bet would have been smaller.

Bet your strong hands or lose money

2010-08-08T20:01:00.009+01:00

One of the very first books I read when I started out in poker suggested that everyone plays quads optimally, and there wasn't much point in talking about it therefore. I don’t think I agree.

Like all our flopped unbreakable nut hands (OK, there's still a str. flush there), we want to extract the maximum, and that’s all we need to focus on, as we cannot lose the hand. Extracting the maximum involves reading the board, and relating it to your opponents possible range of cards.

In this hand I raise 77 and flop the nuts against an aggressive and tricky opponent playing 25/21 who never likes to fold to cbets (0 out of 5 times), and by the turn, I have him drawing dead. The crucial thing of this post is that I opt not to slow play on the drawing stages of the board, which is the mistake I see so often at small stakes (the flop and turn).

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $121.70
MP: $98.50
CO: $110.90
BTN: $108.90
Hero (SB): $110.40
BB: $167.20

Pre-Flop: 7 7 dealt to Hero (SB)
4 folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2
pretty standard

Flop: ($6) 7 7 6 (2 Players)
Hero bets $4, BB calls $4
Fantastic flop for me. Yes I have flopped the monster, but even better, against a good player with him in position on a super wet board. That means he will be aware that his perceived range (his actual cards are irrelevant) in the small blind has hit this flop and will hopefully play accordingly. Perceived ranged (what he thinks I think he has) will consist of mid cards such as 45ss, 78ss, 78o, 89ss, 89o, any 7, pocket 6s, gut shots with overs, any pocket pair, slow played preflop monsters v sb, a floated Ace high with overkicker and any spade draw. The fact that the majority of his hands will in fact have missed is irrelevant. This guy likes to take pots down in position, and he will love to bluff when his perceived range hits. To slow play here would thus be a huge mistake. To check raise here would be an even bigger mistake. (You would fold out his air bluffs)
His perceived range is a massive 25% that could float this flop
AA,JJ-22,A2s+,KQs,K7s,Q7s,J7s,T7s+,97s+,87s,73s+,64s+,A7o,K7o,Q7o,J7o,T7o+,97o+,87o,74o+
WE SIMPLY HAVE TO BET....

Turn: ($14) 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $9, BB calls $9
No change from the above, although by now it looks like he does actually have a draw or is slow playing an unlikely monster like 66. 45o and 45ss got there too. We now also have gutshots with a pair which were called with the 6 on the flop (eg 64)

River: ($32) K (2 Players)
Here is where we have to change tack. River is a huge brick, none of the draws got there. We need to check to let all the busted draws bet, let any K bet, and any of his floated air bluffs bet.

Hero checks, BB bets $15, Hero raises to $32, BB raises to $151.20 and is All-In, Hero calls $62.40 and is All-In
So we opt for a small CR to rep something like AK that is Raise/Folding with plenty fold equity to open the door for his bluff shove repping the 7 and the 66, which he kindly does for us, as he out-levels himself.

Results: $220.80 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed 7 7 and WON $217.80 (+$107.90 NET)
BB showed 9 8 and LOST (-$109.40 NET)

Whilst there is a case for occasional slow play of these juicy monster flops, (super dry boards where its pretty clear he/you has missed might be one, playing against certain maniacs OOP is another) in general you need to be doing all you can to enable all the money to go in, which involves betting the correct amounts and thinking of ranges.

The fact that they will be folding much of the time is no reason to slow play. I hope this example shows why.

The Poker Blueprint review

2010-06-15T00:08:00.002+01:00

Before I start, I should say, I don’t know anything much about the either of the authors of The Poker BluePrint. Aaron Davies asked me to review the book through this blog. I have never studied the popular, but pricey e-books such as “Let There Be Range” and “Exploiting Regulars” which this book sort of relates to, in that Tri Nguyen was involved in those .

Initially, I struggled to figure out whether “The Poker Blueprint” was for an online beginner, an intermediate player still down at the 10nl to25nl stakes, or aiming at the 100nl grinder trying to make a go of 200nl to 400nl . I think it is aimed at the 100 to 200nl area, but really, I couldn’t be sure. It’s important because we play differently at different stakes. For example, I would never 3 bet bluff below a certain level, and I would change my isolating raises too, depending on stakes.

The authors introduce us to the concept of aspiration of the Learner as opposed to the Grinder. I would have liked to see some more explanation of this, (through card examples eg a “learners” approach to AK versus the auto all-in grinder), as it’s an important point for players, giving an experimentation aspect which is essential to progress, and which few are able/prepared to do.

We then go on to moving up stakes. Aaron and Tri talk about taking shots at 30buyins, taking shots to learn from better players, moving down when losing 3 buyins and Risk v Reward. Whilst I don’t think there is a science to taking shots, I do believe that luck plays a big part in how we end up a “reg” at a certain stake. However, what isn’t discussed, and therefore which renders the argument a little hollow, is that of variance versus volume. It’s frankly the most important topic for shot taking, as it has a significant effect on both bankroll and psychology.

We are then onto Maths and Hand Ranges – with a simplified introduction, probability and odds including the concept of implied odds, I don’t get the point of wasting words on this, given every poker book on the planet goes over it, Harrington style. More should have been spent on hand range analysis, as that is where micro players struggle.

Fold Equity is a concept rarely discussed in books, and it’s a big shame this is not elaborated further, as its one of the most important things in 3 and 4 bet pots, but more importantly, in post flop 6max games in particular. Odds charts are shown, and again, I personally never quite get that in a book that is looking beyond a beginners audience, we all know it already.

Expected value is discussed, and ranges become all important here. Revising ranges based on betting patterns on later streets is not discussed.

A reasonable preflop 3 betting strategy is discussed along with a positional adjustment, and balancing our big hands, with our speculative ones. The preflop opening range is better, as the writer uses poker stove to illustrate ranges and percentages, which is a more advanced and original format for exampling preflop strategy, as we get some logic behind the suggested play.

Postflop strategy is where I feel this text does show some excellent strategy for an aspiring player, where the cbet, paired flops, and checking behind are all usefully illustrated.

No tilt discussion, which again is critical for plays moving from 10nl recreation and upwards. It must be discussed, surely??? This, and the aforementioned variance, are the 2 most important factors in becoming successful at online play in my view, more important in fact than poker skills themselves, which can be learned and honed at one’s own pace. But not with tilt issues, or negative variance, which ultimately translate into the bad beat jackpot mentality which can destroy an otherwise promising player.

Would I recommend it? Well the fact is, there simply isn’t anything much else out there at the moment in a consolidated volume for the aspiring microstakes online player. Ed Millars E-book is the obvious comparison, but it’s coming from a different perspective (primarily from a live low stakes player), and a slightly different era. It’s $37.00 as far as I know , easy to read and interesting.

Formula @6max = Being Humble!

2010-04-27T20:52:00.005+01:00

I am not sure if there is an easy formula for beating the low stakes online game, but it is true there is a lot to be made if you follow one path in particular. If we can avoid Fancy Play Syndrome, and stay disciplined, and most importantly......we avoid being bothered about being bluffed. I would call this being humble, where you take the ego out of the situation (but not the player, as I think ego is important in poker). I don’t see how you can make at least modest money out of the game at these stakes following this mantra. And perhaps that is the formula.

I played a pot the other day which I thought illustrated just how even supposedly knowledgeable players sometimes just cannot bring themselves to fold in big pots (in small pots, often they will give up, that’s why stabbing at the pot is so profitable if you know which ones to go for) . The thought of being bluffed, even semi bluffed, where they even probably know deep down they are either crushed, or flipping a coin for the remainder of their stacks, is just too much for them. It's important to note these players, as these are the ones where the very over-rated concept of implied odds actually does come into play. And they exist in abundance at 100nl.

Here we have an UTG raiser who I have a note as to being a bit of a regfish, who offers good implied odds when he has a hand such as Aces, and he runs at 17/14 with 73% cont bet.

Mr Rock calls in mid position, running at 14/12 with a 5% 3bet. Probably set mining….

My trash K4s suddenly starts to offer great odds, as we think about how easy it is to play post flop with this, and yet how well concealed it is against these two.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details
BTN: $132.20 (132.2 bb)
Hero (SB): $122.85 (122.9 bb)
BB: $101.25 (101.3 bb)
UTG: $123.65 (123.7 bb)
MP: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $103.95 (104 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 3 K
UTG raises to $3, MP folds, CO calls $3, BTN calls $3, Hero calls $2.50, BB calls $2

Flop: ($15) 9 J 3 (5 players)

Flop comes down giving me a pair and a flush draw. I am not in love with getting it in with these type of hands, but when Mr rock calls the continuation bet, I don’t think he has a set. Looks to me like some kind of draw, or maybe a weak Jack, say JTs. I think if I can rep a set here, I can get 2 folds much of the time, and if not at least heads up with Mr UTG holding at least a big pair where I have 47% EV.

Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $10, CO calls $10, BTN folds, Hero raises to $55, BB folds, UTG raises to $120.65 and is all-in, CO calls $90.95 and is all-in, Hero calls $64.85 and is all-in.

I make a small mistake, however.....my check raise is too big, thanks to Full Tilt's Pot button, as I nearly time out from playing other tables and press it quickly.

Then...BANG..... first one, then the next shoves all in, and with 25% equity versus what I presume are their likely sets, or 1 set/overpair and 1 nut flush draw, with pot odds of 18%, I have no choice but to call off the remainder of my stack.

Turn: ($355.65) 3 (3 players, 3 are all-in)
River: ($355.65) K (3 players, 3 are all-in)
Results: $355.65 pot ($3.00 rake)
Final Board: 9 J 3 3 K
Hero showed 3 K (a full house, Threes full of Kings) and won $352.65 ($229.80 net)
UTG showed K J (two pairs, Kings and Jacks) and lost (-$122.85 net)
CO showed Q T (a straight, Nine to King) and lost (-$103.95 net)

And here is the point of my post. What we see when the cards turn over on the flop is my actually having a huge 44% equity against some retarded plays. The lack of discipline that sees players who clearly know the game, and yet continue to shove their money in with terrible equity on the tiny premise that they might be being bluffed (although I have to question sanity of the QTs rock overcaller who must realise he has at best only 6 outs with the diamond draw on the flop) makes these games entirely beatable…… provided you maintain discipline when you are put in the same spots.

If you can mentally calculate your equity in these bigger pots, you just cannot go wrong.

Forthcoming book review and…. Don’t Tilt because I’m coming after you if you do…

2010-03-21T23:14:00.006Z

First off, I am just finishing off the latest from Aaron Davis, "The Poker Blueprint" which is a rare book in that it includes thoughts about microstakes online cash poker, and I will post shortly my review of it on this blog.

2nd , and I make no apologies for stating the complete and utter obvious, and because it’s such a huuuuuuuge big thing, please please avoid tilting if you possibly can. I tend to avoid prescriptive advice in this blog, (happy to leave that to others) and keep any advice here more as descriptive.. Except for tilt.

Because tilt, it’s the biggest killer of bankrolls, even more destructive than plain ole baaaad play for all but the very worst players, so a) don’t do it, and b) so I’m gonna talk about it a bit more.

Tilt is like an addiction….no matter how bad it is, no matter how bad you know you have it, no matter what people tell you, you can only fix it if you actually want to do it yourself. Until you make that step, doom will ensue. Tilt isn’t like not being able to fold AA on a 678 non rainbow 4 way flop facing a reraise. After a certain amount of hands, a little bit of reading, and a smidgeon of common sense, only the aforementioned uber baaad players continue to get it in with that.

No...Tilt is a red mist that affects otherwise talented and knowledgeable players, and raises its head at you as you think you begin to realise all the injustices of the universe, and how they point themselves toward your sorry little poker world. Your boat was cracked by quads 1 time too many matey, and now its time to fucking whine. And since no one can hear this whining, its time to do it through the bad beat jackpot scenario of simply proving your own thesis by example (eg 3 betting any two cards). The illogic of it is irrelevant, because you are gorging on the drug of tiiiiiiilt. And with one bad beat after another, the pure fix of it spurs you on to more and more horrendous plays, pronounced even more in the unforgiving NL environment that we play.

Now I have said before here, and I will repeat, no one can help you with this addiction, so forget about watching fancy vids, finding some formulaic book or whining in the forums. Just like any self-abuse, therapy begins with your own secret soul, the place where no one else goes, and thus only you can fix. That first step, the hardest, the most intimate, the least understood, only your solitary naked self, without your mum, your friends, or doctor, can make it with you.

Now the purpose of my post is not to help you manage your crappy tilt problems, because, as I said above, I CANT DO THAT, ONLY YOU CAN.

No, the purpose of this post, and the beauty of the mercenary, selfish, cruel world of poker, is to help you to take advantage of others’ tilt, and thus take their money.

Example of tilt coming up. 1st hand I am just observing, having folded, but mister big time nit playing 12/9 over 200 hands gets had by a loose fish who calls his 3bet with AJ and sucks out v said ubernit's AK….loose fish proceeds to leave the table to a torrent of abuse by stacked ubernit. We were only 3 handed and now we are heads up, me and the angry ubernit. Seems like someone might want to do some chip donating....

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
Hero (BTN): $134.15 (134.2 bb)
BB: $94.55 (94.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 6 K
I am raising any 2 against this guy.
Hero raises to $3, BB raises to $10, Hero calls $7

Ubernit insta 3bets. Its only the second time he's done it in 87 hands. It's got tilt written all over it and I know he wants to extract revenge on me, the git that's been stealing his small blind for 15 orbits. K6o would be thrown away quickly v an uberbit even with my button, and heads up. Normally I would let his likely AK have it and carry on stealing. But it looks like he is tilted, probably with a weaker holding, and frankly, my cards no longer matter, but my being in position after the flop is everything.

Flop: ($20) J 7 8 (2 players)
BB bets $15, Hero raises to $124.15 and is all-in, BB folds

Great flop for me. No broadway cards.Tilted nit insta bets, no pause, no thought, just click. But I think his range is in fact any 2 cards from his timing tell. And facing an all in bet, there are only 3 hands he can have in my view that he can continue with, AJ, QQ, KK and AA. Even tilted nits don't make spite all-in calls with bottom or middle pair in 3 bet pots, and my shove is going to show a nice profit in the long run against an opponent cursing in the chat box about his terrible opponents.

Results: $50 pot ($0.50 rake)
Final Board: J 7 8
Hero mucked 6 K (high card King) and won $49.50 ($24.50 net)
Happy days..

Reconstructing my game, and "calling to re-evaluate"

2010-03-09T20:46:00.006Z

These last few weeks I have not wanted to grind at poker. I have hardly played at all. One of my resolutions as I went into the new year was to try to re-structure some things (read leaks) in my game in preparation of moving up a level. That has been my current motivation, and firing up 6 tables everyday just hasn't been there. When I have done it, things haven't gone well, and all my own fault, which is not cool.

One of the things I have been looking at is making a decision on a hand, based on reads and sticking with that. The dreaded “Calling to re-evaluate” to be avoided at all costs.

So when facing a raise on the flop after cbetting with a strong hand, if you are going to call, and the inevitable scare card comes on the turn, you should already know what you are going to do in said scenario.

Here I raise with 88 and a decent aggro reg (33/27/18%3bet) floats my raise on the button. Now its worth noting here that mr aggro reg 3bets a massive 28% from the button over 296 hands. And he calls a raise on the button with 20% of his hands. So thats 48%......half his hands ,he plays from the button. That is simply spewtastic and we can begin to think about his range there. Any ace, any broadway with a king, and suited connectors and gappers are a 3bet I think. Why did I choose that range, and not, say, pocket pairs? Maybe you can guess yourself.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

BTN: $116.20 (116.2 bb)
SB: $117.40 (117.4 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $71.35 (71.4 bb)
Hero (MP): $106.25 (106.3 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with 8 8
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, CO folds, BTN calls $3.50, SB folds, BB folds

Flop: ($8.50) 2 7 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN raises to $14, Hero calls $9

Now I am raised on a drawy flop when I hit my set. I need to decide now whether I think he has the FD or a set, or some combo, or just a pure bluff. Do I shove with the current nuts, or call, or what???..............Well..........Ax of spades I think would 3bet preflop 100pc of the time based on my read. So I need to decide if this guy would raise a naked draw here, there being straight and flush possibilities on board, and one which he wouldn’t have 3bet on his button. And I can’t see it. I just can’t.

Turn: ($36.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $20, Hero raises to $88.75 and is all-in, BTN folds

So when the nasty 3rd spade comes, I have already decided what to do, because I still believe I have the near nuts to his range. So my check is for value - to induce his bet, and the check raise all in is to eliminate him sucking out with any silly flush on the river.

Results: $76.50 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 2 7 8 5
Hero mucked 8 8 (three of a kind, Eights) and won $73.50 ($36 net)

And finally, sure my read could sometimes be wrong (actually you should be able to deduce from my thinking he actually has a very narrow range), but I still have 23% EV on the turn against any flush which got there, plus a decent amount of fold equity against a straight and a thinking player.

Full tilt changing player types

2010-02-16T09:36:00.004Z

I think one of the changes as a result of full tilts responding to the 20bb shortstacker, by increasing the buy in, has been the slight increase of 100bb reg type players. This could be fixed limit players moving over to NL, and players from other sites coming to Full tilt. I have no stats to back this up, but am guessing that its likely.

As a result of this, today I sat at a table with 4 aggro players, levelling each other and getting into some serious Fancy Play Syndrome. Generally I try to avoid these alpha male type battles, as they tend to be high variance and probable neutral EV in the long term.

But I couldn't help myself, as virtually every pot was 3bet preflop or CR'd post flop, and I wanted to see some action.

Here I raise with AQs and get called by a poor player with 9% 3bet over 150 hands.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

UTG: $100 (100 bb)
MP: $160.25 (160.3 bb)
Hero (CO): $101.50 (101.5 bb)
BTN: $117.15 (117.2 bb)
SB: $112.75 (112.8 bb)
BB: $388.80 (388.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with Q A
UTG folds, MP folds, Hero raises to $3, BTN folds, SB calls $2.50, BB folds

Flop: ($7) K 7 3 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $5, SB raises to $18, Hero calls $13

When he check raises here to such a big amount, you just have to think what he has that he could be doing that with. The only hand I can think of logically is As3s, which has 42% equity v AK, KQ, KJ, being holdings which I could easily have. I think this guy is 3betting his small and medium pocket pairs, but even a set is not CRing to such a large amount I think. I think he is bluffing or semi bluffing more than half the time......as it just doesn't add up.

Turn: ($43) 4 (2 players)
SB bets $24, Hero raises to $80.50 and is all-in, SB folds
The blank on the turn allows me to shove over his half pot bet, where even a hand like KT or KJ will struggle to call. But I am pretty confident he had complete air on this board.

Results: $91 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: K 7 3 4

Making these plays isn't that easy, as it involves confidence in your hand reading and putting your stack on the line, but you do have to adjust against aggro regs, and it can be very profitable.

Don't play if you can't pull the trigger

2010-02-11T21:29:00.006Z

As you may have gathered I haven’t posted in a while. The reason for that is 2 fold. First because I haven’t had much of interest to say, but also because I haven’t had much time to play poker.

As a consequence of the latter, I have not been in my usual mode of raising any 2 from the button. In order to play this style, at my limits anyhow, you need to be in the groove. And, I haven’t been in the groove, due to lack of volume.

Ordinarily I would say, if I were you reading this, so what, you donk! Stop wasting my fucking time.

But I realised if you are indeed in that non-groove mode in poker, you need to batten up the hatches and seriously play solid straightforward poker. Anything else is just going to lose you money by putting you in difficult spots (i.e. a reluctance to play for stacks with 40% EV but counting on Fold Equity to get you toward 60% v villains range). If you’re still reading, thank you, I will try to finally get to the point of this horrendous post with an example.

Villain is a 36/32 spewtard with a 13% 3 bet over 100 hands. I have seen him get it all in pre with 99 full stacks (sucking out v AA), raising 72o and showing down v AK with a 2 on the flop, and all in with 88 v KK in 4 bet pot for 300bb pot on low flop with him in the blinds. Looking him up, he always plays heads up and he is applying those strategies here in true spewtard fashion. It’s even worse than a 6max donk trying to run over a FR table.

Anyway, I have already busted him for his full stack once, and I am ready to leave the tables, when I look down at 78s. I raise, and with him in the blinds, a little voice inside me tells me he will be 3-betting me from the BB.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

SB: $116.55 (116.6 bb)
BB: $116.10 (116.1 bb)
UTG: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (MP): $234.90 (234.9 bb)
CO: $151.35 (151.4 bb)
BTN: $205.35 (205.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with 7 8
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, BB raises to $11, Hero calls $8

Sure enough he 3bets. His range is wide enough that in position I think 78s in position can show a profit, given that he had shown a propensity to give up on the turn.

Flop: ($22.50) 2 4 J (2 players)
BB bets $14, Hero calls $14

Big big mistake by me. If you call in position with a speculative holding, the whole point, the whole absolute point, against this particular player, is to shove all in with at least 44% EV v his range. It is such a horrible flop for him. He is folding so much of the time, but even if he does call, it just isn't that bad. My calling is simply horrendous, and shows such weakness (or absolute nut strength) that we could never win anything much further from the hand.

Turn: ($50.50) T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
compounding the horrendous play even more by checking.

River: ($50.50) K (2 players)
BB bets $36, Hero folds
It's so bad I can't speak.

Results: $50.50 pot ($2.50 rake)
Final Board: 2 4 J T K
BB mucked and won $48 ($23 net)
Uggh, I play sooo bad.

Calling in position in 3bet pots is something you should do only if you are in the groove so to speak, being prepared to play for stacks on semi draws and even stone bluffs, even against superdonks and spewtards. Otherwise let it go and play fit fold, which is profitable in itself and no shame.

Sorry I have nothing interesting to say about Rush poker though.......

Playing AK, or is that Ace-King?

2010-01-21T21:47:00.005Z

One of the things that never ceases to amaze me is just how unsure people seem to be when playing AK. At 6max, players seem positively desperate to get all their money in with it. I don’t get it.

In this post I will talk about having AK and facing a raise preflop.

AK is 47% against a range of all pocket pairs, AQ and the medium suited connectors up to JTs. You hear that…….47%!!!!!!

Therefore the skill with AK is in either making everyone else fold (who wants a call with AK..), or make weaker aces call. That’s making weaker aces call!!!!

Lets discuss making people fold, or fold equity first. Making people fold is a skill. Shoving isn’t. Understanding fold equity is about reads and betting patterns. It’s complex and requires experience of player types and board textures. Pre-flop, knowing whether your AK shove is going to show a profit is entirely down to player reads, and is therefore much more about guesswork due to the lack of information available. And guessing in poker means –EV generally. Especially as most who play the micros lack experience and should therefore avoid tough spots. In my experience, 99+ will call a 3bet almost always from almost all 100nl regfish. They just can’t bring themselves to fold. But after 3betting your AK, and then your automatic cont bet when called (and almost certainly behind) of usually around 18bb puts you in a horrible spot. Yet you miss the flop 60% of the time. Now you don’t need me to do the maths here for you I hope to show how horrible this is for you.

Lets look at it from the other point of view.

How do you make weaker aces call? Lets think…..ummm….by floating. But what do almost all TAGS and LAGS do at the micros? They 3bet. Regardless of the position and history of the other guy, it’s an automatic 3bet. But thinking for oneself just doesn’t seem to be the way it’s at just now in no limit, probably due to the massive amount of information out there that says auto 3bet AK. Very simple really. Everyone 3bets because……well…. just because. Do you think about it? Do you?

Successful cash poker is about extracting value from weaker hands. Not throwing your pile in the middle with 47% equity, as noted above, because that’s the range that’s calling your shove in 4bet pots. Extracting value entails not blowing dominated hands like KQ, KJ and any ace out of the water preflop.

If you can’t understand this premise, you won’t progress.

Finally lets illustrate this idea of extracting value by showing how to play AK in pos against a 20/15 villain with a 100% fold to 3bet. Villain steals 25%.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

MP: $193.05 (193.1 bb)
CO: $101.50 (101.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $174.25 (174.3 bb)
SB: $107.50 (107.5 bb)
BB: $60.60 (60.6 bb)
UTG: $100 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with K A
UTG folds, MP folds, CO raises to $3, Hero calls $3, SB folds, BB calls $2
We avoid 3betting here in position, and conceal the strength of our hand.

Flop: ($9.50) 3 K Q (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero bets $7, BB folds, CO calls $7
KQ and 33 beat us. JT will bet, as will AQ, KT, JQ etc etc. standard to call here to maximise value due to concealing hand.

Turn: ($23.50) Q (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $13, CO raises to $26, Hero calls $13
My feeling is a full house and trips against a standard player here continues betting. I am not in love with the check raise but it seems a bit fishy.

River: ($75.50) 6 (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

Results: $75.50 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 3 K Q Q 6
CO showed 9 K (two pairs, Kings and Queens) and lost (-$36 net)
Hero showed K A (two pairs, Kings and Queens) and won $72.50 ($36.50 net)

I hope you see that if I had 3 bet AK preflop, I would have won a paltry 4.5bb as he was pushing the fold button quicker than light, whereas I ended up winning nearly 10 times that, by maximising value and being prepared to play a bit of poker.

Moving down when running bad? Not me….

2010-01-14T13:06:00.002Z

Bankroll management is the key to winning in the long run in poker. Strategy comes a close second. Edges are so slim nowadays that if you get your buy in level wrong, you can go broke and it can be very difficult to get back to where you were.

Part of that, and rarely disagreed with, is the link between physcology, a downswing, and the idea of moving down limits whilst you steady the ship.

I strongly disagree with this notion.

Let’s assume you are a small winner at a given limit, say 1ptbb/100 before rakeback, over say 150k hands.

Then lets say you go on a 10buy in downswing over 5k hands and lets assume you continue to play solid poker, as you were when you were averaging 1ptbb. Common thinking is to move down a limit or 2. But I don’t get that. That means you have to double your win rate to get back to where you were. Or play twice as many hands at the same win rate but at the lower level. What I do agree with is that variance evens itself out over the long run. Which means that, provided you are adequately bankrolled and still playing your best game, it will even out, and therefore, without, changing anything, you will naturally “catch up”.

All this may seem obvious, but it surprises me just how low the perceived bankroll limits are in the forums, and therefore isn’t obvious at all if you are actually in the middle of a downswing. Many talk about 20 buy ins before shot taking. I can, on a good month, win 20 buy ins within 15k hands. Does that mean I am ready to shot take at, say, 400nl. No. I would get owned. I have lost 14 buyins in one day before, in 2000 hands. Imagine if that was the day after I took a successful shot at 400nl.. Maybe at 10nl and below that’s fine, but in order to cope with the swings, you need to have 100 buy ins. Taking shots is fine, but if you want to avoid tilting when the bad variance kicks in, and I am talking a downswing of 10-15 buy ins over a few sessions, and it inevitably will, you need to have this factored in to your bank roll.

So, after your downswing, when your EV line evens out , as the maths dictates, and having moved down to a lower limit, as you had to do because you were not adequately bankrolled with your paltry 20 to 30 buy ins, then you are effectively cutting your dollar win rate (as opposed to your BB win rate) by half.

So when you have the inevitable doomswitch, don’t move down, grind through it. Just don’t be at a level that you cannot cope with 10-15 buy in down swing.

suckout? Me? I don't think so

2010-01-08T21:14:00.004Z

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker! The WBCOOP is a free online Poker tournament open to all Bloggers, so register on WBCOOP to play.

Registration code: 904254

An interesting hand came up where many may feel I sucked out and/or played it bad, including the other players at my table at the time, judging by the comments. But I don't think so. What do you think?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

Hero (BB): $138.10 (138.1 bb)
UTG: $127.60 (127.6 bb)
MP: $103.65 (103.7 bb)
CO: $151.30 (151.3 bb)
BTN: $140.25 (140.3 bb)
SB: $95 (95 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with T T
2 folds, CO raises to $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $15.50, CO calls $12, BTN calls $12

I squeeze TT, sometimes I just flat, it just depends. But, after my 3bet, when I get a caller and an overcaller, then their ranges (both standard regs who are capable of folding, and of making semi-bluffs) become quite polarised to 99-QQ type pocket pairs to the original raiser and speculative hands like JTs and baby pairs to the overcaller.

Flop: ($47) 2 6 5 (3 players)
Hero bets $41,
I have to represent AA here and I need to do this with a very big bet, which will fold out JJ-QQ.

CO folds, BTN raises to $124.75 and is all-in, Hero calls $81.60 and is all-in

Original raiser folds, but overcaller shoves his full stack, which is a further 120bb. So he has a set....

But does he?
Would you just shove a set against a guy who clearly has a lot behind and likely overpair? My guess is a thinking player wouldn't.

Believe me I tanked this for a while, but finally decided to call. I will give the full analysis of why after the result below.

Turn: ($292.20) Q (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($292.20) 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $292.20 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 2 6 5 Q 2

Hero showed T T (two pairs, Tens and Twos) and won $289.20 ($151.10 net)
BTN showed 5 6 (two pairs, Sixes and Fives) and lost (-$138.10 net)

Why did I decide to call? Well the pot was laying me 28% due to the large amount of money that had gone in. Even ignoring an unlikely but possible (say 10%) total bluff, given his overcalling range with the possiblity of so many semi-bluff type combo draws, I reckon my equity is actually around 52%. I also have a club to take away one of those possible combo outs. And even if you just go by what he actually had, (2pair) I still had 30% equity so was about the right price (just..) for a call.

Gritting your teeth and calling is not great, but as long as you use your precious timebank seconds to think through what he could be doing that with, rather than blind hope, logic can really help you.

In this case therefore, I don't think i sucked out, in fact I actually made a good call. And most importantly, before you criticise the size of my bet on the flop, note that in the chat box after, as my TT was shown down, the original raiser who timed down, but finally folded to my pot cbet, on the flop, did indeed have JJ, and I achieved what I was setting out to do, by repping AA.

Charitable Poker

2010-01-06T20:33:00.005Z

It never fails to surprise me when I see some of the card combos people are prepared to play online, especially when you realise it's all for real money. I just wonder how some of these droolers actually manage to dress themselves in the morning, never mind them being able to figure out the process of how to deposit money on a poker site. Some seem positively determined to just give their money to you, and it makes me wonder if they wouldn't get a little more satisfaction by donating this cash to some kind of charity or worthwhile cause, even going up to a random person in the street and handing them $100 would get a startled and happy reaction from them, which is surely superior to donating within the faceless environment of an online poker room.

As an example I illustrate with this hand. The worrying thing is, this type of thing isn't that unusual.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details
CO: $160.50 (160.5 bb)
BTN: $30.20 (30.2 bb)
SB: $204 (204 bb)
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
MP: $80.10 (80.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with A A
MP calls $1, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $7, MP calls $6

Flop: ($14.50) Q T 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $10, MP calls $10

Turn: ($34.50) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $16, MP calls $16

River: ($66.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $54, MP calls $47.10 and is all-in

Results: $160.70 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: Q T 9 Q 7
Hero showed A A (two pairs, Aces and Queens) and won $157.70 ($77.60 net)
MP mucked 5 A (a pair of Queens) and lost (-$80.10 net)

He called the flop, turn and all-in on river with no pair and no draw, giving his stack to the BankofMBB, which I can assure you, is not a charity.

Looking forward...2010 and 2009 graph

2010-01-02T13:11:00.006Z

One of my first posts here shows what my aims for 2009 were. I think I managed to just about get there.

I looked into the Pokerstars VPP thing, but in order to take advantage of it fully, you need to have a lot of volume. After a bit of experimenting with multi-tabling and AHK, I realised I still had so much to learn in just playing the game, so went back to playing 4-6 tables on a rakeback site where volume and rakeback are not related.

The big question we all ask ourselves is whether we are good enough to make a living from the game. As you can see from the graph below, there is no doubt I can beat the game just now, up to 100nl, as the majority of that sample is 100nl, both full ring and 6 max. I currently play around 15 hours a week at poker, seeing 20k hands per month. Some could actually live on just what I have earned through poker this year. For it to be more than just a decent side income however, with that volume, of course I have to be beating 200nl by this time next year, with an eye on shots at 400nl and 1000nl. I need to ask myself whether I want to put that kind of pressure on me, given I work for myself, and don’t always want the distraction of poker, especially when things are going bad. I would also have to think about whether I need coaching or should I carry on with my own brand of betting.

The alternative approach is one of an immediate start of 200nl tomorrow and balling it to 400nl by March to be a reg there by May or June. I am certainly bank-rolled for it. And certainly I could have a heater at the right time, which is probably all you need to cement yourself at the limit. But I have also heard the transition form 200 to 400nl is the hardest, and losing 10 buy-ins trying doesn’t appeal to me, which could happen even if I played perfect poker, as we all know.

The fact of the matter is, I have only been playing online cash poker for a year, and feel I still have a lot to learn. I think, like all businesses, (and I think of poker as a business) we need to think in 5 year plans, and therefore there is more than enough time for me to reach mid stakes without having to risk much too quickly.

Away from Hold’em, I have recently added PLO 6max to my game, which will add discussion and extra dimension to my blog, once I have something to say.

Finally, through my email above I have had a few tentative requests for coaching, which I haven't so far taken up, as I wanted at least 250k hands under my belt. If further requests came in, I would think about it for limits up to 50nl probably, if anyone was still interested.

Well that’s it, enjoy 2010.

A guide to beating Micro and small stakes? Maybe.....

2009-12-29T21:47:00.011Z

Looking back over the past year, here are a few things I have learned about micro cash games. Don’t apply this to your average donkament poker unless you play really deep (and why play them anyway?) as much is different in that type of poker, having been through the sitngo and MTT route myself prior to cash.

1. Don’t play cash under-rolled.
It will tilt you when you lose. Your life will become fucked up.

2. Don’t tilt
This I can’t help you with, and I have realised it’s the most important thing, after bankroll management. Many otherwise good players simply cannot deal with running into bad variance, and end up losing far more than they need to. If your all time graph, over at least 100k hands is not smoothish, but instead very jaggedy and up and down, then I suspect you have this problem. Deal with it. Don’t watch videos by Jared, don’t read books, they can’t ultimately help you. Only you yourself can. So no advice. It would be wasted.

3. Don’t be a scaredy cat.
If you’re not prepared to put your stack on the line sometimes, play darts or snooker instead. You’re pissing it away. Its No-Limit for Christ sakes, which is positively made for bluffing, and where the boring maths geeks and nits play second fiddle to the real players, those who are prepared to gamble based on look and feel of boards and histories. But most importantly, stop always checking the river without the nuts. Learn to value bet.

4. Don’t be obsessed with winning.
Unfortunately most ignore or are simply unable to comprehend this very fundamental advice, which is very specific to poker.

5. Learn to hate your opponents without being in the slightest bit emotional.
And NEVER be emotional when a player who annoys you proceeds to bust you. Learn how to deal with this. But respect players while hating them, and switch off the hating after playing.

6. Don’t be a lazy student of the game.
Everyone watches training vids, reads books and the WSOP on the telly. That’s the easy part. The hard part is the analysis. I started to post examples on this blog, but that just scratches the surface. Its subjective and complicated, but you will learn. Work hard, or stop moaning when you lose.

7. Don’t cry about coolers and bad luck
Aside from the fact it’s boring, it fucks you up and tilts you.

8. Don’t be scared of making mistakes. Experiment. Think of it as an investment rather than a cost.

9. Don’t let yourself be run over
Although all good players 3bet, many play terribly post flop in these inflated pots. If you follow this blog you may know that much of my bankroll has been provided by the aggrodonks and the spewtards. They infest the low limits.. Although each has subtle differences, both will bully the hell out of you if you let them. And many do. Sometimes you just have to make a stand.

Here a 22/16/11%3bet aggrodonk bets my button steal for the 3rd time in around 5 attempts by me. I want to let him know he cant get away with that. So I call with a trash K4o with the aim of either taking it away from him on the turn, or losing my stack to him but letting him know that I will be calling him from now on every time, as he sees the trash I floated with.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

BB: $213.55 (213.6 bb)
MP: $59.05 (59.1 bb)
CO: $157.90 (157.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): $111.55 (111.6 bb)
SB: $165.10 (165.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with K 4
MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $3, SB folds, BB raises to $9, Hero calls $6

Flop: ($18.50) 9 7 2 (2 players)
BB bets $12, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($42.50) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $28, BB folds

Results: $42.50 pot ($2.10 rake)
Final Board: 9 7 2 2
Hero mucked K 4 (a pair of Twos) and won $40.40 ($19.40 net)

Needless to say he never 3bet me again for that session.

Hope that is of interest. Thanks for reading.

A Year Blogging - looking back

2009-12-15T23:24:00.009Z

I started this blog 1 year ago, and so I thought I would look back at both the content of my posts and how they evolved, whether I think I have actually improved and similar stuff.

Using money I had won through a freeroll and grinded up playing up to 10nl, I deposited $510 onto Fulltilt in November 2008. I have managed to grind that up to a tidy 5 figure bankroll, without ever having added to the initial deposit. So as far as the Chris Ferguson $10K Challenge goes, I proved it’s perfectly possible. Hurrah for that.

With regards the stakes I played, I went from 10nl to 25nl, back to 10nl then from 25nl to 50nl and up to 100nl. In February I invested in a HUD and tracking software, which didn’t really make a huge difference to either my play or my results, in hindsight. Throughout this time I played full ring and I experimented with playing up to 18 tables. I found this somewhat boring.

In order to combat this boredom, I decided to muck about in late spring with a bet fold experiment. As Pokerstars was doing a promotion players at the time, I hopped over to that site, where I used a separate bankroll that I had grinded up, from an initial $100 deposit, to around $1000 playing solely sitngoes, almost all at $5.50 buyin level. I played 100nl full ring. Although I ran badly, I realised that when you start doing daft things like repping a set on any low board without either the relevant experience, but more importantly, while playing 16 tables, it’s a losing mentality. I tried this for a month without any real progress.

During that time I noticed how dreadful the problem has become, especially on Stars, of 20bb mass tabling push bots, which makes poker for non 20bb'ers (be they regs, fish, tags, nits, lags, fullstakers, half stacker and so on) far more difficult, to just have a game of No Limit Holdem. I think its worth noting that here, it being a micro and small stakes problem. I posted an entry about my feelings here, and a particular vocal response was effected by the "shortstack heroes", Lorin and Travis here. Although the discussion was constructive (you need to read the comments with my response as well as their post), my opinion of the mindset of someone that wishes to mass table at 20bb is still somewhat low, to say the least, and in fact it depresses the hell out of me that a) so many people seem to want to do it, and b) the sites continue to allow 20bb mass tabling. What is as depressing is that these guys genuinely aspire to this kind of activity and therefore they are defo here to stay. Durrrrr recently gave an interesting interview on his thoughts on it, and where the real skill lies, which I found highly encouraging. Not to put the boot in to just shortstackers however, I do feel a similar disregard to the 24tabling full ring 100bb autohotkey Reg Stars/Fulltilt bots, although they are far, far easier to exploit than good shortstackers, and have kindly provided me with a healthy amount of my current bankroll.

At this time, therefore, I was becoming frustrated with poker, but thankfully, through some very formative sweats from a 6max player and fellow blogger whom I now consider a friend, I realised that this 6max format was the game for me, despite my good winrate when nitting it up at full ring playing 9-10 tables. I therefore left a profitable situation to pursue something I thought I would enjoy more.

Enjoy = happy
Happy>Poorer (maybe)
but …….long run?
Happy = rich person
Rich person>rich

I moved back down to 50nl and played 6max for the first time and ran well for my first month, cementing my loving relationship with semi-deep-stacked short handed no limit poker. (200bb is really where its at if you’re a skilled player in my view)

From July onwards I have played 6 max exclusively, with the odd fun stab at Heads Up, at 50nl and now up to 100nl, and over a large hand sample, 4 to 5 tabling, I run at just under 4ptbb/100. I am absolutely delighted with it. Especially since I think I still can improve much more.

Looking back through my posts, its funny to see some of my early ramblings and how I would probably do a lot of things differently with my limited experience over the year. But that’s the joy of the journey of blogging, and I am glad I have got this stuff down as a record. I also posted my thoughts on player types, which I may extend into a 2plus2 post shortly, as I have never posted anything of note on that forum, and yet which is read by so many microstakes bloggers.

As the year went on, I posted more on interesting spots and hand reading, and less on associated stuff such as software, poker sites and books. I hope to build on hand reading discussion in this blog next year too. I have deliberately avoided posting about non poker stuff such as sport or politics, and I have also tried to stick to micro stakes in terms of poker talk. Next year I hope to bring some discussion into small stakes up to 400nl.

I had one brutal day, in October, spread over 2 sessions, where I lost 14 buyins at 100nl. It took me 10k hands to get it back. It was devastating at the time, but I came out of it better, as I know I can now go through these swings and recover from these beats without too much hassle. The first time is always the worst in poker. (nevertheless I hope I never go through it again soon…)

In terms of people commenting on what I have posted, almost all of it has been constructive and informative which encourages my opinion that the vast majority of poker players at these stakes, and especially those who blog, are thoughtful, modest, generous and intelligent. You know who you are as you read this, and I hope you go far, there is still plenty of reacreational money to go around for all. Re the scummy haters and slaggers that do pop up in the online poker community, keep on doing it if you like, its water of a duck’s back to me, I assure you, and you’re the real losers.

I will post about where I hope to be this time next year under a separate post in the next few days, as I think this has gone on long enough, no? Hell, I might even post the graph for the past year…….

Making Laydowns?

2009-12-08T20:10:00.008Z

One of the things I don't think I have been that good at over my time playing poker, and where I still need some help, is knowing when to fold. I had a couple of hands recently where a little voice was screaming at me to fold, whilst my gamble side was saying call call call. Still not sure if I made good decisions so would be good to get some input.

HAND 1
villian is 19/18/4%3bet over 128 hands

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

UTG: $107.90 (107.9 bb)
MP: $101.50 (101.5 bb)
CO: $112.15 (112.2 bb)
BTN: $98.50 (98.5 bb)
SB: $110.55 (110.6 bb)
Hero (BB): $207.95 (208 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Q Q
UTG raises to $3.50, MP folds, CO folds, BTN calls $3.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $14.50, UTG raises to $38, BTN folds, Hero folds

Results: $33 pot
Final Board:
UTG mucked and won $33 ($18.50 net)
Here I squeeze, due to the loose passive who had called from the button, to avoid a 3way pot with Queens, and for value as I think I have the best hand. UTG thinks for a while, presses time, and then re-pops. My experience here is almost always a monster, yet I have seen many of the coaches say that, at 6max, always get it in with qq, as you are up against AK so many times. My thinking here, against a tightish, non spewy utg player, is more likely to be AA-KK, and a shove from AK but would be happy for comment. For example, if you factor in JJ it is correct to shove here.

HAND 2
villain is 32/25/8%3bet and one of the worst, most spewy aggrodonks at this limit, and who is a big loser over a decent hand sample.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details
CO: $207.90 (207.9 bb)
BTN: $129.65 (129.7 bb)
SB: $110.30 (110.3 bb)
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $446.15 (446.2 bb)
MP: $138.45 (138.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 9 9
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, BTN raises to $3, SB folds, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) 6 K J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($6.50) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5
So now I am a bit suspicious. This guy cbets 90% of the time, yet he checked the K high flop.

River: ($16.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $12.50, BTN raises to $121.65 and is all-in, Hero folds
I can't see anything here beyond QT, KK and JJ. It's a common thing amongst losing players to slowplay monsters, especially ones like this guy, who just plays the notion of being able to bet people of hands, without considering what they may have. It's also a common thing for same losing players to shove all-in-overbet at some point, but usually the river, because they think it looks like a bluff and they will get called, when they have the mortal nuts.

It turns into a pretty easy fold for me, because I do not think he is nearly good enough to know how to elicit a call from me, and the action just reeks of a monster. But, please tell me otherwise, grateful for any comment.

Results: $41.50 pot ($2.05 rake)
Final Board: 6 K J 9 5
BTN mucked and won $39.45 ($18.95 net)

Funny chat box stuff

2009-12-02T09:39:00.005Z

I know many guys swear by the chat box "off" option, to avoid tilting when a drooler gets mouthy, but I think it's worth it always on, just to see the gloriously funny bits of conversation that come up during a session.

Thought I'd share this with you. I was not involved in the hand, but it went as follows:
CO raise, SB 3bet, BB cold call, CO 4bet, SB fold, BB call (he was a fish btw....)

flop is rags, BB check, CO bets 2/3 pot,BB call
turn is rag, BB check CO all in, BB call
CO had AA, BB had KKand is busted for around 130bb (pot was 270bb total roughly).
As he is sitting there, busto, BB says

CHARGERFANINBM: go f ur self
CHARGERFANINBM: like i did not know u had aces

Beautiful.

November results

2009-11-30T21:22:00.003Z

Yeah, well, everyone wants to see everyone elses' graph, so here is mine.

I havn't been able to get the volume I want due to other things going on. Really not much point in posting a graph with less than 20k hands but.......

Actually quite happy with most of my decisions though, 1 or 2 silly mistakes but less and less as I carry on at 6max. Rakeback and bonuses take it to around $1100 at 4ptbb/100.

Really want to get 25k hands minimum in for the last month of the year if I possibly can.

Calling all-ins v Pushing all-in

2009-11-28T13:36:00.012Z

We had an interesting discussion regarding All-in EV in my post a few days ago here, and that it doesn't take account of fold equity. I played a relevant hand today where I thought some of the ideas may make my own thinking a little clearer of how I act in these pots, with regard to FE.

Villian is a standard aggrodonk running at 35/25 with 11%3bet, and (naturally) a big loser at both 50nl and 100nl over a large sample.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

Hero (MP): $133.20 (133.2 bb)
CO: $25.70 (25.7 bb)
BTN: $17.50 (17.5 bb)
SB: $103.45 (103.5 bb)
BB: $135.80 (135.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with 6 6
Hero raises to $3.50, CO folds, BTN calls $3.50, SB folds, BB calls $2.50

Flop: ($11) 3 7 6 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, BTN folds, BB raises to $25, Hero raises to $129.70 and is all-in, BB calls $104.70

When he raises, I think he thinks he is committing himself to the hand. No preflop 3bet from him seems to me almost certainly to be either an unlikely set, or much more likely, a draw, due to the nature of the board. So lets think about things from his scenario for 1 moment. What could I have, that I shove over his check raise? Well I am going to be generous to him and include in my range overpairs from AA-JJ, which, on a bad day for me, I may indeed shove here. I could also have 77-66,33,AcJc,AcTc,9c8c,5c4c. Against this range he is 36% (see the spoiler below if you want to know what he had) and the pot odds are offering him 39%. But we were 135bb deep at the start of the hand. Similarly, and usually, I may be just folding the overpairs, which only gives him 26% equity. Would you call here?

Now lets switch that around. Lets say he donk bets 8bb, I raise 25bb, and he shoves 104bb over the top. Now factoring in the fold equity it becomes a far more reasonable play. Because I must include all sorts of mega combo draws and the 77 that crushes me in his range, making me only 54%. I still always call here against this particular opponent, but I am feeling sick.

But back to the scenario, him calling the allin with such mediocre equity, especially at these limits, seems pretty spewy, especially when you take account of the type of opponent I am (a shove from me usually means something, especially to even aggro-donk regs such as him)

Finally, by building the pot with the CR, when he is deep, he is just setting himself up for difficult decisions on later streets.

Turn: ($270.40) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($270.40) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Results: $270.40 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 3 7 6 5 5
Hero showed 6 6 (a full house, Sixes full of Fives) and won $267.40 ($134.20 net)
BB showed Q K (a flush, King high) and lost (-$133.20 net)

Nothing wrong with being a calling station sometimes

2009-11-23T19:03:00.003Z

I wanted to post an example of where 3betting is sub optimal. and where you should always try to make a strategy for how you want to play the hand, based on reads and situation. So here we wake up with QQ from BB versus a TAG player on the tight/nit side of things. Now I guess the vast majority of regs 3bet here. Personally I think they do this for 2 reasons, a) they can't hand read very well, and they know it and b) they have read everywhere that you cannot play out of position without the lead.

So with QQ here, the mouse hovers over the 3bet pot button (if it exists) in auto mode. But we really need to think. Villain is 18/14 and raising 3bb from cutoff. He has a 100%cbet. He's 4betting AK, AA-KK for sure which, as a range, crushes us, and MAYBE flatting JJ-TT but he might even fold these. All other hands he is folding. Why on earth therefore would you want to 3bet him therefore???

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details
MP: $124.90 (124.9 bb)
CO: $140.90 (140.9 bb)
BTN: $34.50 (34.5 bb)
SB: $50.35 (50.4 bb)
Hero (BB): $101.50 (101.5 bb)
UTG: $66.50 (66.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Q Q
2 folds, CO raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $2

We make a decision at the start of the hand how we want to play it (extracting max value through opponents mistakes after concealing our strength), and we stick to that throughout the hand without info to suggest we should be beat.

Flop: ($6.50) 6 5 J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $4, Hero calls $4

Plan is to check call all streets, as villain spazzes once he is in the pot, as previously mentioned with cbet. If he checks the turn, we bet all cards on the river no matter what. (I would even bet if an A rivers, but I leave that to you to decide why I would do that)

Turn: ($14.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $10, Hero calls $10

Keeping to the plan. 8-9 beats us now, as do the sets, and absolutely no reason on Gods earth to raise therefore.

River: ($34.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $42, Hero calls $42

Whoops..........
So the mother of all scare cards comes, and he overbets the pot. Would YOU bet like that if you made the straight? Or would you value bet to get a call from a weaker hand such as 2pair? 9-10 is the nuts, and if he does have this, then it's a very, very advanced play. I don't often see a tighty raising mid connecting cards from the cut-off, and he is always checking those on the river to such a draw/set heavy board, if by chance he has indeed made 2 pair. Meanwhile our plan was to check call to extract max value using his spazzy betting, and nothing indicates that we should deviate from that. We beat 22-44, 8-9, 99,TT, all broadway and any Ax hand, as well factoring in our suspicion on his overbet, so I have to carry on with the hand.

Results: $118.50 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 6 5 J 7 8
CO showed K T (high card King) and lost (-$59 net)
Hero showed Q Q (a pair of Queens) and won $115.50 ($56.50 net)

Sure sometimes they draw out on you, and sometimes you need to re-evaluate post flop, but you will not learn to play cards and start to become able to hand read if you cannot stop auto-3betting and learning post flop strategy. And so you'll never move up.

The EV Graph-Line, Losers, Whiners and Winners

2009-11-20T00:24:00.005Z

Hi there
I really never understand people posting their boring whines about running below EV. The EV line in tracking software such as PT and HEM indicates when you get your money in good, as a favourite. It’s like posting all your AA hands that were crushed by KK all-in pre-flop. Yawn…....

Anyone that whines about being unlucky has "loser" written all over them in my mind, and who probably persuades themselves eventually into seeing monsters under the bed, gorging on their bad-beat-jackpot stories and continuing their boring downward spiralling vicious circle and compounding their bad luck.

Lets just think about it for a second…….

Conversely, of course you can only run above EV when you consistently get your money in bad....makes sense no? getting your money in bad is baaaaad. Getting your money in good (ie at least 51%, but usually at least 68% upwards) means you can only be sucked out on. You can’t give the bad beat.

If you want to whine about running below EV you should see my graph, it is mouth-watering how much I should have won, a healthy 4-figure sum over the past 50k hands at my little micro limits. But I am still winning. And I still consistently get my money in good.

That’s poker is it not? And I am happy with it that way. Because I think I have an edge in poker, and that horrid EV line proves it, as does the upward winnings line over a healthy hand sample.

And you should be happy too.

I have no problems saying I think I am an excellent player, who can progress far in the game by the way. Because I believe that. And if I didn’t, I wouldn’t be playing No-Limit. Especially No-Limit, self-belief is everything, as you can’t hide behind the maths as much as you can in Limit (unless you short-stack, and you know my thoughts on that fucked-up strategy). In order to beat the psychology of the game, knowing you have an edge on even the better players is part of avoiding fear and instead making them fear you. I aspire to become better at No-limit because I honestly believe it makes me a better, stronger person.

So forget about the EV line. And Instead........?

Hate them, kill them off. And you’ll win. No friends at the tables.

Key to success at micros: part 2

2009-11-15T11:49:00.014Z

I spoke about the importance at microstakes of winning the maximum from your strong hands by value betting (discussed in part 1 here), but the other essential thing for a winning player at 100nl and below is losing the minimum with your second best (yet still strong) hands. Of course these concepts are relevant at all stakes, but simply being aware of these 2 ideas alone will shoot up your winrate massively, even if you ignore everything else, at microstakes.

Of course we are talking about reading the board texture v your opponents range when facing a raise with our premium pair/TPTK type holding on a wet flop, and that has been discussed to death elsewhere. Instead I would discuss situations where getting it all in when you have the nuts, or near to it, would hold little value as you simply fold out hands that you crush. But when you have a very very strong yet non nut hand when facing action, yes you are going to lose some money sometimes, it's inevitable, but hand reading and common sense can at least save you losing your whole stack.

As usual an example to discuss: Villain is 18/14 straightforward tagnit with unbernit tendencies.
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

UTG: $100 (100 bb)
MP: $109.90 (109.9 bb)
Hero (CO): $100 (100 bb)
BTN: $36.10 (36.1 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
BB: $194.30 (194.3 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with J T
UTG folds, MP raises to $3.50, Hero calls $3.50, 3 folds
Silly to 3bet here, as the only hands that call have me beat, as do those that 4bet. His range is skewed toward AK AQ and big pairs, which JTs does well against.

Flop: ($8.50) Q 2 9 (2 players)
MP bets $6.50, Hero calls $6.50
We flop the draw. Based on his range, he could have TPTK, air (with AK) or a set. If a K flops and he has AK we are stacking him, with his ubernit tendencies. So I figure I have the odds to call.

Turn: ($21.50) 8 (2 players)
MP bets $14, Hero calls $14
We hit, and he keeps betting. Here is where we really need to re-examine what he could actually have here. Figures to be a combo draw with the FD, one of the other JT hands, or even naked AQ. A raise here on the turn would be correct, except this type of player stacks off lightly I think. So as he is likely to fire a final barrel, he will have to call my min raise on the river.

River: ($49.50) 2 (2 players)
MP bets $42, Hero calls $42
And here is where the point of the post really kicks in. A bad river card and a big bet from him looks like its either a set filled up or a flush. So our raising the river turns into a call.

Results: $133.50 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: Q 2 9 8 2
MP showed J T (a flush, Queen high) and won $130.50 ($64.50 net)
Hero mucked J T (a straight, Eight to Queen) and lost (-$66 net)

Although he had the same hand as me, I saved myself 30bb by not shoving the nuts (folding out his weaker hands and losing value) on the flop, instead with a view to getting it all in by the river, based on his betting patterns. When the unlikely flush/fullhouse card came, if we raise on the river, we only get called by hands that beat us, so we call, and lose the minimum. You can see by his stupid river bet that he was definitely going broke, had I had a set which had filled up, which was entirely possible. I should also consider a fold here, but I think it was more than 30% likely that he could have just an overpair.TP hand. I agree that a fold should be argued here and I could have found it. My real excuse was that I only noticed the backdoor flush card, and not the board pairing as well, A truly terrible card.

Finally, I would not have played a set like this. I would certainly have raised his flop cont bet to get the money in as an 75% favourite v his range, as I am more vulnerable and there are more scare cards for him too on such a wet board with 2 cards to come.

October results

2009-11-02T22:53:00.006Z

Only 12k hands this month and that wasn't enough to even out the variance. A truly awful single day over 2 sessions saw me losing 14buyins. Every horror under the sun hit me that day, and it was truly amazing just how bad you can run sometimes. I got it back to 3buyins below even over the next 8k hands playing nitty (em.....read minimise-tilt) poker before another 2 bad sessions at the weekend left me 8buyins down for the end of the month. Add back rakeback and some weird (but welcome) bonuses that FT ran and I guess I am 4buyins down for the month.

There is no point in posting the graph, its too few hands and its just one massive vertical down line followed by a steady upward and then a small downer at the end. I have been very busy with work projects and next few months is going to be as busy. I need to be getting +30k hands per month minimum to start to get a true reflection of win rate (or loss rate) or start aiming for 3month reviews instead of monthly ones if I only manage circa 10k. God, though, I really want at least 25k to get at least some momentum....

What to take from it? 14 buyins? Looking through the HHs of the session, I just not sure if I would have done much different. I dont want this blog to turn into the typical micro-whine=bad beat-i-run-sooo-bad-blog. Prob need some second opinion from a friendly patient soul. And...well, I have few losing sessions, but I occasionally have a big losing sessions followed by lots of smaller winning ones. I never have massive (ie +5buyin type) winning sessions.

My second losing month at poker since starting this heavenly game. Yuk.

Notes on The Red Line

2009-10-27T17:40:00.010Z

Today was my first day playing poker for 10 days as I have been out of the country. It's gonna be a low volume month, which is crap.

Anyway I thought I would mention the red line graph on HEM since I have seen it discussed on numerous micro blogs.

Frankly, I couldn't care less about it. I rarely look at the showdown/nonshowdown winnings graph, because I only look at things that can help me, and that can't help me.

Why? Paying too much attention to a balanced red line will fuck with your head and make you play sub-optimally. One of the main aspects the a "good" redline demonstrates is an understanding of fold equity. If you are reading this blog, you are likely playing at stakes on or under 100nl, and if so, its showdown winnings and blind stealing that are the order of the day. I would say the adjustment in fold equity between 25nl-100nl is relatively small, whereas the adjustment between 100nl to 200 and on to 400nl is massive comparatively.

Playing your opponents cards, value betting with the best hand and folding with the worst of it is the way of it 100nl and below, not trying to push top pair lovers off their "marginal" holding.

Playing a 32/25/10%3bet style will get tons of folds and a nice red line, but I have yet to see a big winner playing these stats at 100nl. You will win lots of small pots, but lose a significant amount of big pots, which combine to make a losing player.

I like to summarise with a hand as usual, and here we bust a top-pair-loving opponent by playing optimally against his stupid overvalue-top-pair style.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details
MP: $84.90 (84.9 bb)
CO: $211.35 (211.4 bb)
BTN: $120.45 (120.5 bb)
Hero (SB): $100 (100 bb)
BB: $108.65 (108.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 4 A

MP calls $1, 2 folds, Hero completes, BB checks
Flop: ($3) 2 9 5 (3 players)
Hero bets $2, BB folds, MP raises to $6, Hero calls $4

We lead out the flop with a semi-bluff with a combo draw, to build the pot.When it's raised, we can guess what he has. Most likely the overpair or TP. Many players (redline lovers) will 3bet-shove here with the combo draw, but against this typical 100nl station's range, we are flipping, when you factor in the unlikely sets. He is never ever laying down an overpair, or top pair. There is no fold equity. So why flip?

Turn: ($15) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $10, Hero raises to $45, MP calls $35
We just call the flop 3bet and chase our draw, which we hit and he will still pay us off when we hit, which he duly does here, as we check raise him, although I am surprised to see just how lightly he calls.

River: ($105) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $48 and is all-in, MP calls $32.90 and is all-in

Results: $170.80 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 2 9 5 3 Q
MP mucked 9 J (a pair of Nines) and lost (-$84.90 net)
Hero showed 4 A (a straight, Ace to Five) and won $167.80 ($82.90 net)

We risk an additional 4bb on the flop (and possibly another check call 8bb on the turn if it bricks) to get exactly the same result as if we risked 90bb by shoving on 50% equity.

Forget about the red line. Seriously, there is too much else out there to master at these limits. Once you do master them, it's move up time to optimize your win rate, and THEN start looking at fold equity. But if you can get players to lay down decent hands at 100nl, your throwing money away. Because you should have moved up at that point......your crushing.

Full tilt v shortstackers

2009-10-15T19:34:00.009+01:00

As you may know if you follow my blog, I have little patience for the shortstacking community. I have noticed that the game slows when they sit, and the fact is, it remains a very difficult strategy to play against. I think it actually discourages people from playing more at the poker sites.

There's no real point in trying to get a ss to "change" into a 50bb+ player. From his point of view, why should he? If that's where they get their return, no amount of argument in the name of "respect to the game" or "deep stack skill" will make the slightest difference to them.

But I have an idea. If Fulltilt made it that each player can only buy in for 1 20bb at a time, and any other table he buys into has to be 50bb, 2 things would happen.

1. We would all enjoy playing a little turn and river poker a little more often
2. All the players from other sites (who don't shortstack as a strategy) would positively FLOCK to Full tilt. Because, quite simply, shortstackers ruin it for everyone else, and who wants to have players around who do that at a site.

In fact, I have heard that Fulltilt are seriously considering this. I doubt it has anything to do with their "love" of "proper" poker (ie point 1 above) and more to do with the commercial aspects of point 2.

I just hope it happens.

Here is an example of optimal play against a shortstacker. I play whats called a back-raise, where I float preflop to induce the squeeze from the bb shortstack donk, who duly obliges with his crappy K9o shove. He suksout and immediately leaves the table.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

MP: $121.60 (121.6 bb)
CO: $157.35 (157.4 bb)
BTN: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (SB): $145.40 (145.4 bb)
BB: $20 (20 bb)
UTG: $299.75 (299.8 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with A Q
3 folds, BTN raises to $2, Hero calls $1.50, BB raises to $20 and is all-in, BTN folds, Hero calls $18
Flop: ($42) K 6 3 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: ($42) J (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($42) 3 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $42 pot ($2.10 rake)
Final Board: K 6 3 J 3
Hero showed A Q (a pair of Threes) and lost (-$20 net)
BB showed 9 K (two pairs, Kings and Threes) and won $39.90 ($19.90 net)

Words cannot express my feelings toward this monkey and his strategy, they really make me puke when I induce them to spew and they still luck out, and run. What can you do......?

Key to Success at the micros?

2009-10-11T12:31:00.006+01:00

I don't think there is any great secret to win at 100nl and below. Actually I would say it's simply down to one thing, extracting maximum value with your key hands. Forget about the pre flop all ins, the set over set type cooler/heater, and having your aces cracked, missing with AK etc. It happens to us all, as I have said before. But your winrate will show a marked increase if you are able to get that additional 10bb or so when you know you have the best of it, and play accordingly versus the particular player type.

To illustrate this I want to post a hand that I think I played badly in this respect, where I lost value by lazy hand reading. Villain here is a 10/7 ubernit in the blinds over 42 hands, never having 3bet so far.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

SB: $168.20 (168.2 bb)
BB: $172.60 (172.6 bb)
UTG: $147.70 (147.7 bb)
MP: $111.45 (111.5 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $100 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
3 folds, Hero raises to $3, SB folds, BB calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) Q T Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB calls $3
Nice to flop quads, sad to flop it against an ubernit. Nevertheless I always cont bet here, and I think many players always make the mistake of checking here. Just look at the board, one of the wettest out there. If ubernit has 22-99 I doubt he will put much more into the pot, so as well to take it down right there and move on. However, as he clearly only 3bets KK-AA, AK, we must think about what else he might have. A myriad of Broadway combinations also comes to mind, with gutshot and open-ender possibilities, as well as bottom pair ATs type hands. We want to entice these to call. But the other important reason to bet here is because I am also always going to fire a small bet with air, as well as the nuts. Ubernit times for a bit, then calls.

Turn: ($12.50) A (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $7, BB raises to $22, Hero calls $15
Ok, so here is my first mistake. When I was raised here, I was so busy licking my lips, I didn't actually narrow down his range. What would CR me here? AT? unlikely, check call more from this guy, Axclubs? possible I guess. KJ? very very likely. TT very very likely. So at this point I SHOULD have been thinking about how to extract maximum value on this hands, as AT is putting nothing more into the pot, and only Axclubs will give up on river if it misses. So a simple min raise would have done the job, where he will either call for deception (in his eyes), shove, or insta fold (the least likely).

River: ($56.50) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $34, BB calls $34
River bricks, and I make my final and most important mistake. He is either check folding his weak hand, or check calling with a boat or a straight, and the check seems more to lean toward the straight. Either way a bet close to pot would have done it, and he still would have called. And had I min-3bet-raised the turn, a 2/3 pot bet on the river would have got all the money in.

Results: $124.50 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: Q T Q A 7
BB mucked K J (a straight, Ten to Ace) and lost (-$62 net)
Hero showed Q Q (four of a kind, Queens) and won $121.50 ($59.50 net)

So here, through lazy play sparked by the fun of flopping quads, made me lose somewhere in the reason of 30-40bbs.

This is an extreme example, which I use because I had the absolute nuts on the flop, therefore every bet was always going to be a pure value bet, but this applies equally to your tptk hands where you think you have your opponent outkicked, and of course there is far more skill to that, in terms of hand reading and self confidence, but nevertheless, that is where your win rate will be at.

comments now enabled

2009-10-08T14:46:00.002+01:00

I stupidly turned off my comments options when I played about with the html template here. Was wondering why no one ever commented on anything.

All is hopefully working now.

Nothing much more interesting to say I'm afraid.....

Why play donkaments

2009-10-06T17:56:00.001+01:00

I have read in various mid to high stakes blogs (Steve Holden for example) about the swingy life of a Tournie pro. Clarkatroid posted an entry after his WSOP main event exit, and the whole thing makes me shudder.

To invest hours, if not days in some MTT, live or online, with a massive player pool, just to be in site of the final table, but then to have to gamble for your whole pile on a coinflip. Or to have some baseball cap brat runner-runner suckout on you with his all-in shove bluff as that dork did against Greg Raymor in 2006 when they were down to 25 players. Online or live it just isn't for me unless I did them for fun, or had some stake thing. (and I have won my share, both in sitngos and in MTTs)

Now I also invest hours in grinding cash, but when some little dogfart overshoves his pocket 4s v my 4bet AA and suksout on me, as happened to me today, as he is dragging the chips toward him in that smug little smile with a "ty ty" in the chatbox , at least I know I am still likely to get my money back from him, and some more, with the edge I have on the little gobshite. When same happens in a donkament I can only pack up and go away feeling like death. Plus, I can avoid getting it in on just a coinflip for full stacks if I so desire.

Tournies are fun, until you realise as you bubble you could actually win, and then the defeat hurts when that coinflip goes to them. Now I know all about $EV versus tEV, but nevertheless, I'll stick to cash thanks.

September Results and Graph - 100nl 6max

2009-09-30T17:51:00.009+01:00

So here is my graph for September. I didn’t play in August, save for a few hundred hands as I was away.

I ran at just below 3ptbb/100, all at 100nl 6max, and which I cannot complain about, especially since it’s the first time I have played this level. (Well, I have done100nl at Full Ring, of course, and ok, 21k isn’t the biggest sample ever, so I am not taking too much from it). I started off 4tabling, adding another 2 tables in the final couple of days of the month.

One of the features of my graphs are certainly that I usually have a somewhat jaggedy line. I suspect (read I know) this means I play a somewhat high variance style, with a reasonably high standard deviation. (being 41.85BigBets) This tends to be the case when I move up to a higher level. Why? …..Well it may sound crazy but I just sometimes call regs down light at a new level, simply to see what they have. It’s information, quite simply, that I think of as an investment, to help me get a decent picture of some of the ranges, and the feel for the approx % of bluffing. The more I play therefore, the more I can trust my reads and thus the less I pay people off. As far as I know I have never heard of anyone doing that in medium size pots at the micros. Maybe I am wrong…

I also LAG it up at a new level, and tighten up bit by bit over maybe 15-25k hands to find a sweet spot, which is contrary to the way most move up I guess.

From memory, I only had 1 big sukout, when I donk called a good player who had me crushed with kk v my tt all in on the turn when I just didn't believe him, and I caught my 2 outer. whoops. I had my fair share of brutal beats, some of which occurred all at once, at 5khands on the graph, and it’s certain that a thick skin is required to play 6max as you move up, being that you see so many more flops than at FR.

I don’t think you should ever stay at a level if you do not have a good feeling that at sometime in the future you will be able to consistently beat it. I think I can comfortably beat 100nl 6max, but not without another load of hands under my belt. A 20-30k hand break-even stretch is perfectly possible for all players, so next month does not need to be a winning month, and break even is fine, as I posted previously here, talking about the rakeback pro.

So adding on rakeback and 2 nice FT bonuses, totalling around $550, I am ok with just under $1720 for the month and my new level.

Obviously I have tons and tons to learn, and I will keep working away at my game, and any comments are always very welcome.

Hud Robot part 2 and the Professor

2009-09-29T10:22:00.001+01:00

Just read back over my post profiling the Hud Robot as a player type and I stupidly forgot to mention their favourite player.

Silly me. Pretty obvious really, in case you haven't already gathered......

ITS HOWARD LEDERER STUPID!!

And talking of the man himself, I think he can safely kiss any remaining credibility of being the "professor" of poker goodbye after his recent performance on Poker After Dark with Dwan, Ivy, Zigmund et al. Not sure if you saw it, but it was the biggest illustration I have seen yet as to how the game has been totally changed in the last 2 years. Notwithstanding that, even Hellmuth was prepared to mix it up a bit with Dwan at the last cash game there, but Lederer, on losing his AA to a set for 200bb ($100k) in one of the first hands (overplayed in true ubernit style), Lederer rebought, shut up shop and folded hand after hand for the remaining entire week of poker. I have no idea what he was thinking, but he must surely have been aware that the poker world was watching. And with another $20k of blinds and antes away, he confirmed to me that cash poker deep stacked leaves you nowhere to hide.

Clearly playing scared money, what he thought he was doing there, or hoped to prove, is beyond me, and aside from his awful ring game, he demonstrated one of the biggest errors any novice player can ever make, that of poor game selection.

The Hud Robot

2009-09-27T12:45:00.001+01:00

There are a few people out there who, at some time in their life, had their imaginations removed by a quick painless operation that they may no longer remember how it happened. These people exist on a diet of mediocrity and over-logic. When these same people find poker, they in turn find themselves obsessing to such huge amounts over their other organ -their HUD.

Welcome to the world of the HUD Robot.

We all love our Huds, and we all use them a bit. The HUD Robot however, likes to have 3 rows of stats as the minimum, but I have seen screenshots of guys with 5 before. PT was good, but Holdem Manager was heaven, especially with the 3bet stats that came in.

As such, the critical things of no limit (the "look and feel" of deep stack play) which no HUD can teach you, pass these poor souls by. When facing a CR on a wet board therefore, their poor little HUD can't cope, and in this unfortunate vacuum of statistical information, they panic, as they have to make a decision ON THEIR OWN, which, due to the panic, usually means a wrong decision.

The HUD robot will usually be, in the outside world, a good reliable right hand man to the boss of a company, loyally carrying out same boss's directions in good worker ant fashion, as he is not comfortable making decisions on his own.

The Hud Robot also adores books by Sklansky, especially those like NLT&P where plenty of mathematics are written out for him to examine and "copy".

How to spot a HUD Robot? A bit tricky at first. Standard prelfop ranges and bet sizes, together with conventional play post flop, and long pauses at each betting round as they check their pop ups. (Nb the timing tell is only relevant once you have checked the amount of tables they are playing). This type rarely, if ever, value bet thin as their knowledge of stats means they are paranoid of never having the nuts, and the possibility that their opponnent could have just that. So the check on the end of a runner runner flush board with them having a 2 pair or a set is usually a good tell of their tendencies.

How to play a HUD Robot? Simple, really...just mix it up and fire into him when you hit your unlikely hand, his HUD won't tell him to fold. Confused, he will make the wrong decision usually.

Calling stations and Implied odds at 100nl 6max

2009-09-25T09:29:00.007+01:00

I would say you can safely separate the players at this level into various player types, with the exception of a tiny percentage of excellent players who remain unpredictable.

But one of the most common things present across the player types divide is that of an inability to lay down either strong draws when they know they are beat and have no odds, and, more commonly, made hands that are far from the nuts. It is these 2 things for me at least, that make the variance and frustrations worth it over the long run at this level.

I have no idea when it actually markedly changes (ie 200nl, 400nl?) but at 100 any pair is good for even many of the regs to just call down with, or even raise. 2 pair is the nuts to many, and an overpair.....better than sex for the ubernits in particular. Whilst that is frustrating for a player like me who never likes to give up when I know someone is weak (and they still call my barrels down) it pays off handsomely in the long run.

I leave you with this hand. Villain is a 36/18 standard fish typical at this level.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

CO: $179.50 (179.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $152.55 (152.6 bb)
SB: $200.50 (200.5 bb)
BB: $229 (229 bb)
UTG: $109.45 (109.5 bb)
MP: $100 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 9 A

UTG raises to $3.50, 2 folds, Hero calls $3.50, SB folds, BB calls $2.50
I am calling the utg raiser here because he is a total lagfish and I think he can give me plenty of value on the right flop. BB (villain) calls which is no surprise as he calls 40% from BB.

Flop: ($11) 5 4 9 (3 players)
BB bets $16, UTG folds, Hero calls $16
Big bet on flop smells of a set, 2 pair or flush. Flush is likely as these fish will call from blinds with any 2 suited always. He could even be doing it with something like J9, t9 to get rid of the draws. Like many slightly aggro fish, he has donkbet of 22%. Folding is out of the question because of the stack sizes and the implied odds. Smaller stacks would make it hard to continue, depending on reads.

Turn: ($43) K (2 players)
BB bets $15, Hero calls $15.
Straightforward here. He either has a flush or he doesn't. If he doesn't he is snap folding to a raise, but by simply calling we allow him to bluff a final shell on the river.

River: ($73) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $118.05 and is all-in, BB calls $118.05
Nothing changed here, he either had a flush or he didn't. My logic, as per the start of this post, was that he would never ever be capable of laying down the Qs, Js, maybe even the Ts, and all of which are entirely within his range. so an overbet shove was obvious for snap fold or snap call.

Results: $309.10 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 5 4 9 K 8
Hero showed 9 A (a flush, Ace high) and won $306.10 ($153.55 net)
BB mucked J 6 (a flush, King high) and lost (-$152.55 net)

Like I said, keep pushin at them, but in small pots. You will lose some to the stations, aggros and donks, but same guys will pay you off in the pots that really matter.

Love Hate Relationship with Poker

2009-09-21T10:53:00.001+01:00

Yesterday was maybe the first time I really doubted whether I could cut it as a poker player. I had one of those sessions where everything went against me. I then looked at my stats and thought, WTF am I doing, as I lost 3buyins. I didn’t play bad, in fact there was only 1 or 2 decisions out of the 1000 hands I would play differently, but it was more the frustration of not being able to get over the variance. And I wasn’t sure if there was something obvious that I wasn’t doing, that I should be doing.

I cant be bothered with the after effects of poker after one of those inevitable sessions, I can’t stop thinking about it later in the day, and it stops me focusing on other stuff. As it was I went out with a good friend of mine, had a few drinks, and made a decision to play once I got home. So I got back home, fired up 6 tables at 1am, and won 4 buyins within around 600 hands. I am not saying that’s a good thing, but the fact was I knew I wouldn’t be able to be cool with poker again until I had tried to get the money back. And I think that isn’t such a good thing, despite the fact I now am sure I now have an edge at 100nl 6max.

Phew….

Poker is the biggest headfuck ever. You can learn the best moves ever, but if you can’t deal with the swings (and I am not saying I can yet) I doubt you will progress.

Twoplustwo haters part 2

2009-09-17T02:09:00.002+01:00

I think the 2p2 forum does offer some fantastic resource and helps the Internet player in particular on the daily grind. Some examples would be rakeback info, hand postings, strategy, scripting info.

There are however, a few things you need to keep in mind when reading/and/or posting the threads:

On the msnl threads, some of the strategy postings are plain nonsense. Take most with a pinch of salt. Read this for example of just a plain stupid post, and note how he backtracks a few posts later, as it's examined further here.

NEVER read the small stakes and/or mid stakes forum and then try to apply it to micro stakes. It won't work. An example is 4betting. If you think 3betting has gone crazy at msnl, just look at 400nl. 4betting is the new 3betting there. I would be certain if you 4bet light at msnl you will pay very dearly. (I know myself, I tried it unsuccessfully in April with a bet/fold strategy at 100nl, see my posts for that month if you are interested). If you are thinking on some high level and your opponent is only looking at his cards, or in love with top pair, you will just suffer from Fancy Play Syndrome and lose EV.

Don't think because the haters slag off a post, they are right. It is a sad trend, but there is a strong lobby of Cardrunner type slags who think they are the nuts, and everyone else outside their 21-year-old-dropoutiscool-college-brat-all-about-me-I-dont-give-a-fuck are just fish (That's their downfall by the way). They cannot think for themselves, and need some Stox winning mid stakes baller to show them how its done, and they blindly follow this line, without ever making their own ideas. Look how they lay into this guys tight/passive strategy ideas at 10nl here. He's thinking out of the box. Right or wrong, that is to be commended in a forum. (NB I noted this before here)

Finally, any Internet forum that encourages discussion always allows in the positively loathsome scum that have no use on earth and should just be taken round the back and executed. I leave you with this as an example, a guy who thinks its cool to reveal personal financial and private address details of Daniel Negreanu, just because "he doesn't like him".
http://archives1.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=0&Number=10186458&page=0&fpart=1&vc=1&nt=11
What is scary is how easy it is to post this utter shite, even if it is not accurate.

The Serial Shortstacker

2009-09-09T11:28:00.005+01:00

Low self esteem? Do you hate the world? Think its a dog-eat-dog world and you just got to look after numero uno? Scared to raise those pocket 2s? Well, if so, finally here's a post just for you, and following on from my Player Types mini-series.

Risking the wrath of the small but very vicious army of Small stackers out there, I decided to give my thoughts on what are, surely, the most detested of player types. The Serial Shortstacker. "Hey," I hear them scream, "that's not a player type, that's a STRATEGY".

Well, that would be right, except I didn't call the player type the short stacker, I called him the SERIAL SSr. Yes, unlike the other min buy-in money types that play at the micros, who do indeed tend to just donate their 20bb before going to bed for a bit of fun, or the scared money types, or the guys who might try it at a new level to get a feel, the serialSS actually ENJOYS the strategy, and positively aspires to play this way regularly.

Now although everyone else hates them, and they are aware of that, the Serial SS has to come to terms with this. They have a contempt for the bigger pool deeper stack players who, they know, indeed, positively loath them. So they deal with this by building a virtual wall in their minds to cope their unpopularity by in turn loathing every single poker player (probably everyone in the world full stop) other than themselves, which presumably goes with their general phsyche. . They avoid the insults, having received so many of them, by turning off their chat boxes, so don't waste your time expressing your frustration each time they push with their 33 and hold up v your AK, or they stop-and-go and catch on the river v your hero call when you were ahead . Just think of summer roses, karma, and Bhudda whilst gritting your teeth. That way you don't play into their hands, and end up donking money to them or the rest of the table. Donking money away is bad of course, but donking money to the SerialShortstacker is plain criminal.

The SerialSS relies entirely on you not noticing, (or forgetting about) their transparent strategy. And it works, as long as you get bored and play into their predictable limp reraise (sometimes they do this by min raising too). Just limp along with them, and fit fold the flop. Don't worry, if you hit 2 pair, they will gladly give you their measly 20bb as they stop-and-go the flop after their limp reraise didn't work. Never, ever call with a speculative holding against these numpties, you never have the odds. Put them all in withAk-AQ, JJ-TT, flat call their raise with AA-QQ, and throw the rest v their open raise.

The SerialSS will have you believe that his is a fine, complex and thoughtful strategy, full of deep thinking and many variables. The fact that none of them have ever seen a turn card with money behind in their miserable lives escapes them. They are so used to thinking about things entirely from their own perspective that they have no desire to delve into the higher level concepts of no-limit deep stack (no need to hand read after all). ........."And why should I", I hear them shout. ........Why indeed.

Cmon guys, lets keep the discipline up so we can stop paying them off and rid ourselves of this pox once and for all. My solution to the Serial shortstackers would be to make them play at tables where the MAX buyin would be 20bb, but the min buy in would be 5bb. Let them hone their skills there, with their own kind (who they also hate, by the way).

The Serial shortstacker has no favourite player (other then themselves obviously, but who they also sub-conciously detest) as no "known" players have become "good" and arrived at high stakes by playing their crappy, hugely selfish SS strategy.

Ps - playing these types is actually quite difficult, and my brief strategy notes above for playable hands are just that, so please do not rely on them for game theory, as there is far more too it. The aim of this post is simply to briefly "reflect" about them . In fact, adjusting to a 20bb stack when they do come to your tables comes much more down to maths and less to psychology (and thus very different/simpler than deep stack philosophy). I am serious about wanting to beat this type as the games would be better as a result, and there is good information out there pertaining to open raising with them still to act, calling their raises, and such, and thinking in relation to the remaining stacks. Please use it. However the very best strategy is simply to find games without them.

Don't bluff me you swine

2009-09-06T18:30:00.006+01:00

There's a fine line between the pay-off-wizard and the "I don't-believe-you" line, and it's usually the difference between good and bad hand reading. I haven't posted that much on hand reading but thought I would try a bit of analysis.

Most important thing here (as with all hand reading exercises) is our opponent. This guy runs at 26/13 with a 15% CR and defends 50% of his blinds over a smallish hand sample, and has 3% 3bet. Aggression factor here I always ignore as I need minimum 1k hands for it to make any sense. Next factor is stack sizes, and we are both 130bb+ deep.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

BB: $191.10 (191.1 bb)
UTG: $118.05 (118.1 bb)
Hero (MP): $137.70 (137.7 bb)
CO: $121.65 (121.7 bb)
BTN: $116.30 (116.3 bb)
SB: $69.85 (69.9 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with T K

UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls $2.50
A slightly loose raise in EP, not something I usually do, but for some reason I did here.

Flop: ($7.50) K J J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB raises to $18, Hero calls $13

So here is where the hand begins. Now I am about to fold here, but then I look at my position. I raised from UTG+1 and he knows this. He has a 3% 3bet which suggests his range is AK, AA-JJ. I can therefore eliminate these from his holding. I am also eliminating any J as these passivy guys always slow play their monsters. Hopefully, this could put him on AQspades, QTspades, QT, or possibly the nut flush or even naked baby flush draw. I think KQ is somewhat unlikely here, as, aside from him worrying about me having AK being the EP raiser, passives like this tend to check call all streets with TP, or do a spazzy min raise, for what they think is value. But KQ is still a possibility. Finally, in the tiny possibility he does in fact have a J, I can get his entire stack if a K comes, as I don't think these guys can get away from a boat. Weighing it up, therefore I change my mind and call.

Turn: ($43.50) 3 (2 players)
BB bets $27, Hero calls $27
Hmmm, I am still not happy, but even a dude like this knows not to let me draw, if in fact he does have the KQ and he thinks it's me who is drawing. So my line on the flop has to continue. His betting line just doesn't make sense to me (too small), unless he has precisely KJ and is valuetowning me, or is still semi bluffing with a strong draw.

River: ($97.50) Q (2 players)

BB checks, Hero checks
I am snap checking here 100% of the time. If he had fired the 3rd barrell I probably would have to call, given my decisions on flop and turn but I'm not sure, and I am hating myself at this point I am sure.

Results: $97.50 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: K J J 3 Q
BB showed 6 6 (two pairs, Jacks and Sixes) and lost (-$48.50 net)
Hero showed T K (two pairs, Kings and Jacks) and won $94.50 ($46 net)

In summary, I guess I never thought about the underpair, and he would have won the pot on the turn if any A, 9 or spade had come up, so I can't really fault his bluff as it fooled me. But his mistake was trying to bluff on a broadway flop v an EP raiser (it hits so much of my range), compounded by too small a bet on the turn, when in truth he should have just given up.

My thoughts on the rakeback pro, and taking shots

2009-09-02T19:16:00.003+01:00

There seems to be a general dislike of being labelled a rakeback pro, it being taken as an insult by many players.

I have absolutely no problem if I were breaking even at the tables, and making a profit through rakeback, especially at higher levels. As a part time player at 100nl, you only need 25k hands to get some $750 of rakeback per month, and as you move to 200nl it gets an even more chunky figure. If you take that line, (ie I dont mind 0BB/100) ESPECIALLY when taking shots at higher levels, you do one of the most important things in poker, you take the pressure off yourself. Less pressure = better decisions. Better decisions = +EV. Sure if you are playing 25nl or below, it's a bit tougher to get by on rakeback (actually you should just forget about rakeback and keep playing and learning), but the play should be proportionally softer, so shot taking is less of a big deal.

Long term playing at a particular level just breaking even will inevitably lead to a better understanding of the game, and eventually improve. You might hit a heater straightaway, you might hit a downer, but being happy with just break even initalially is cool for a long term plan of improvement. Something that helped my No-limit skills was playing PLO and Horse Sitngos, which I played purely as a fun excersise with no real aim to win, just aiming not to lose.

Fact of the matter is, many posters only post winning results and winning graphs for reviews, and just tend to post losing hands or sessions. It's those dudes that are kidding themselves. If you are not obssessed with the graph line, tilt is less of an issue, and playing is just more enjoyable.

Remember, Full stacked 100bb micro no limit is hard. It takes a lot of patience, experimenting and experience. Good poker looks far into the future.

calling 3bets using player types

2009-08-31T11:32:00.003+01:00

In my previous post I talked about the 3bet and how much value is being lost in my view by its (over) application. I argued that keeping pots small and extracting value is more +EV than 100% 3bet/fold strategy. But what to do when tight people 3bet you, and you have to decide what to do. Well, I tend not to pay so much attention to stats, and much more to the type of player I am up against, our history, and my cards in relation to my position. A speculative hand such as sc or low pp is only good for me if I have position and I think my opponent will overplay his hand, as many do in 3bet pots. and I VERY rarely call a 3bet with 22-66.

So here is a hand to sum up. Villain is a mixture between an ubernit and a spewtard, who has only ever 3bet with a premium hand, but will go to showdown with it 100% of time. He is the perfect dude to therefore play a speculative hand in position with a view to busting his fat arse (he's got a huge stack). I have already called his 3bet once, and lost a few bb trying to make him fold by repping a flush, and regarding levelling, I know he knows he's not to believe me when I flat call from stealing position. I know I am way behind here therefore, and I know he thinks he's ahead. So this Villain is 18/16 with a 6.4% 3bet and, importantly, a huge WTSD%.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 4 Players

Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

Hero (CO): $115.55 (115.6 bb)
BTN: $178.30 (178.3 bb)
SB: $332.45 (332.5 bb)
BB: $187.50 (187.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is CO with 9 T
Hero raises to $3.50, BTN folds, SB raises to $11.50, BB folds, Hero calls $8. I am in the habit of occasionally calling in position, only if I think villain has a preflop monster. T9s is no good against something like AQ or 66 as villain will rarely be prepared to play for stacks post flop, but great against AA-QQ.

Flop: ($24) 5 8 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $15, SB raises to $35, Hero raises to $104.05 and is all-in, SB calls $69.05
here I am happy in the knowledge that my opponent almost certainly has the overpair or possibly an unlikely AK. I am 56% versus his 44% range and I am definitely playing for stacks, as I understand I have no fold equity. I wouldn't have called without the intention of playing for stacks in a marginal spot otherwise. the only hand I am worried about is JJ, which is 51% against my 49%, as I have lost a few outs, and the AKhh which still leaves me with good equity. Note I have discounted sets from his range as I think he is set mining with these (which is a poor play in his situation, but I still think he plays that way). Even with a set, I am still 42% .

Turn: ($232.10) 5 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($232.10) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $232.10 pot ($2.00 rake)
Final Board: 5 8 7 5 Q
Hero showed 9 T (a flush, Ten high) and won $230.10 ($114.55 net)
SB showed J J (two pairs, Jacks and Fives) and lost (-$115.55 net)

Please note my winnings here are not 232 bb. I need to subtract the 30bb I spent on an earlier hand finding out about this particular player. Why would I play for stacks with no fold equity in a flip situation ?(actually I am marginally ahead, but forget about that for now) Well, because of this dudes desire to commit when in a hand, I would continue to search him out, to continue to aim for the huge implied odds he offers, in order to recoup the "purchase cost" of my 30bb. I would also aim to avoid coinflip spots with no fold equity against him in the future, and therefore, for example, mix up by just flat calling with a hand like AA, or set mining maybe.

Final thing to note is I understand a lot players may not agree with this line. In a previous post, Lorin Yelle provided some input in why he believes I could make a mistake, as well as over valuing implied odds, so please read that for further analysis, keeping in mind that is a full ring situation, whereas this is 6max, where flipping is more common obviously. There is no need to play these type of hands at 1006max in 3bet pots, but with good reads, there is money to be made.

Hope this isn't too spewy a line.

OK so its back to playing poker in September.

3bet obsession is a losing strategy

2009-08-29T15:10:00.008+01:00

I have been playing ring games seriously for nearly 10months now. I started at 5nl and really did do the whole bank roll thing, and now I am seriously overrolled for 100nl as per the standard "rules" posted by those in the know. So I am no authority on the game as yet, but I have been through the grind.

I have notice a spot where there is such big money that is there for the taking, that I would advise all newish micros like me to concentrate on the 3bet pot. The whole 3bet thing has just gotten silly amongst a fairly large proportion of micro players, from 50nl upwards. Below 50nl I really would play fit or fold in any 3bet situation, fitting only with premiums. But at 50nl upwards, otherwise good players display a massive leak in their games by a stupid obsession with 3betting and 100% contbet follow through without thinking through the most profitable line. If you can get your head round this, you can be come a VERY profitable player, with a minimum amount of post flop skill in my view.

When 3betting, you need to think about why you are doing it, and this is where their leaks start. If its a bluff, think why, and what to do if called. If its for value, think why, and what to do by the turn. If its because you don't believe your opponent, well....that ain't enough. There's loads more to say about this, but I know I am a winning player with a (comparatively) low 3bet %, and I am happy for that. The simple fact is, if I believe I am ahead of my opponent, and I think he will keep betting into me post flop, but fold if I 3bet, then I am simply calling. OOP there are a few more things to think about, but you are losing a ton of value by auto 3betting premiums 100% of the time and balancing with 3bet bluffs 20-30% of time. A ton.

Now don't convince yourself that this is metagame and all that baloney. If you have 5k hands on your villain, and a load of history then maybe. But at the micros, with players moving up or down and, depending on your site, a huge player pool, there is no metagame. Furthermore, there are just to many players who will never fold with any piece of any flop, so forget metagame.

There just seems to be this fear amongst many thinking players at these micros to play a bit of real poker. I have argued this in previous posts about short stacking, as a strategy too. Now, if you are happy with a high 3bet (with the intention of getting your opponent to fold) strategy, (and I am CONVINCED you want them to fold, despite what you might argue) and you are winning, than that is fine by me. But I don't believe this playing type will be able to go above 200nl without getting completely slaughtered. And unless you wanna be a multi tabling or shstacking robot, that's where any pro or semi pro ambition has to be at. The hard truth is, you need to learn to play post flop, and building big pots pre against random opponents is not, therefore, where its at.

The Ubernit

2009-08-27T18:16:00.004+01:00

As I have been away for most of the month, I have not been able to play much poker, so no brag (or cry-baby) graph this month as too little volume. I may in fact stop posting monthly graphs as I am not sure if they help or hinder. We’ll see. Thought I might have some more fun with my thoughts on player types instead. So…..

Mr Ubernit

Hey, we’ve all done it, so no denials.

Stared down at AA from UTG after ages of folding, licked our lips as we consider our sexy graph after this hand, raise the appropriate amount, and wait for those fish to come on board. Actually the only one who calls is that pesky LAG from the button. Well, who cares, its time to teach that guy a lesson, and me and my bullets are here to do just that.

Flop is all low cards. Grrrreat. Continuation bet time. Great again, he calls. Turn another low card, bet again. What? He min raises. That git is trying to bluff me. Well not this time buddy you say, as you hit the All-in button. The rest is a blur, as all you remember is seeing the mountain of chips shipping in the other direction. WHAT A BAD BEAT……..

This is usually one’s early hard lessons in cash games deep stacked (so that’s why they short stack…NB I will be adding the SerialShortstacker to my player types soon, although I am a bit scared of the wrath I might get from that particular community when I do, yikes) and after a few times we learn to lose less than the maximum and start to get better. The skill in these pots is losing the minimum, cos you will always lose a fair chunk of your stack.

The ubernit cannot learn this lesson, and loses stack after stack with his premiums, and never gets paid off with his sets. He runs at somewhere around 11/4 at full ring and at 14/8 at 6max. when the ubernit raises, he turns his cards face up (AA-JJ, AK and maybe AQ if late pos) I have seen some even limp JJ treating it as a set mine or check call on low cards. TT downwards is open limp. When the ubernit calls a raise he has JJ and below, or poss AK-AQ. The ubernit wont 3bet QQ from the blinds at FR,and only 3bets JJ+ at 6max from blinds, never bluffing. When the ubernit calls on any board he has either an overpair or a set. If an ubernit hits a straight or flush, it’s always by accident.

Ubernits never ever use the chat boxes.

Ubernits usually come from some weird city or country that noone has ever heard of, and have really unimaginative screen names like Karl66 or Wjke.

Ubernits always play with a full stack, and insta rebuy when busted.(which is often)

Watch as all but the superdonks insta fold when the ubernit raises any flop or turn.

The implied odds that we so romanticise about exist in abundance against the ubernit, and calling with any pp or suited connector is where its at against them, because if you hit you are getting their stack. I even call sometimes with something like a3o, knowing if I hit A3x with them on AK-AQ they are giving me their stack, and they are snap check folding with KK. If I don’t hit the 2 pair, even on an A rag flop, it’s me who is insta folding.
One word of warning, never ever EVER try to bluff the ubernit. I speak from bitter experience.

I have many many nice examples of this player type in action if anyone wants me to post them.

My fav type of player by far.

The ChatDonk

2009-08-18T00:27:00.003+01:00

Following on from the other player types in earlier posts (the aggrodonk and the spewtard) one player type that doesn't get a mention much is the Chatdonk. I guess this type disappears as you move up the stakes ladder but at the micros they hang around, filling the chat boxes with complete nonsense.

Chatdonks have 2 clear characteristics, the first is that they are unaware of the complexities of NL cash (that is...they are very predictable players who think they are the nuts because they have read Harrington, as opposed to out and out pure fish, and I certainly think I still am getting to grips with this with relates to my own play) but the second is they THINK they are the dogs bollocks (that is.....very unpredictable sharks just waiting to get properly rolled for 1000nl if the rest of us idiots would just stop cracking their aces with 75s)

Chat donks go crazy with their typing when the following things happen....

a) they win a big pot (and everyone else at the table starts to yawn). Here they become uber nice guys and go into the ins and outs of the hand and seem all together ecstatic with life.
b) they lose a pot due to "bad" play by another player. Here they drone on and on about the donks and how you can never beat them, and how could you call and.......blah blah blah.

chatdonks berate others for bad play, not getting the fact that it's this very aspect of poker (bad play by one's opponents) that gives us our profit. No doubt chatdonks think that if everyone played optimally then they would magically become winning players.

Chatdonks make the complete recreational fish think twice before continuing to rebuy when busted. Or hit and run if they double up. By being continually berated the fish starts to actually think more, and will decide to quit while he's ahead, taking the dead money from the table. Its for this final ultimate crime that makes chatdonks complete and utter donks.

Because chatonks are so ABC Harrington, who tend to fear monsters under the bed (covering up their inadequacies by talking nonsense the whole time) a simple check-raise, or double-float-all-in-whentheycheckriver, will often take away the pot from them, regardless of their holding. Sets or above is what they will require to call you.

Their favourite player is Phil Hellmuth.

Finally, ChatDonks usually have a really annoying screen name.......

Dealing with bad beats

2009-08-16T12:46:00.008+01:00

I really like to catch up with lots of poker blogs, and I love knowing there is a hidden community out there like me, struggling with this beautiful game. Especially just now as I am out of the country and not playing poker.

One thing that tends to make me switch off from some blogs is the bad beat seekers. I fail to see the point in droning on about the cooler hands. If you get it all in pre with AA v KK and get busted, the only reason to discuss that might be if it happened, like, 4 times in one session and how you might deal with that phsycologicaly.

Its just a fact of life that KK cracks AA around 20% of the time. It's as uninteresting as talking about suffering set over set as it is talking about it when you have the over set, or when your aces actually hold up. No one cares, because it has happened to all of us, and it will happen again and again and there is nothing we can do about it. Whining about it whether to others or yourself when you go to bed (or whatever) will start to induce tilt, and put you on a one way ticket to the bad beat jackpot heaven, where you can unchill out with your other high blood pressured bad beat seekers.

What we want to see and read is situations with variables (and set v set, or AA v KK in 3 bet pot has virtually no variables, as the money is going in no matter what). We are talking meta game preflop 4betting, and turn and river play for example. Some players opt for 1 way and others for another, either can be right, and either can change depending on players and histories. Here is where the beauty, the Zen, lies.

In conclusion it's absolutely clear to me, and something I have rarely seen highlighted, that the better you are the more badbeats you will have inflicted on you, and the less sukouts you will inflict on others. Its the only downside of near optimal play.

Finally I would like to thank Matthew Pitt (Yorkshire Pud) for his review of my blog here.

Playing Spewtards

2009-08-08T20:27:00.012+01:00

Here is some more musings on my little mini series of player types at the 6max micros.

The main difference between the aggro donks and the spewtards is the all-in button.

Whereas the aggros are capable of finally make a laydown after the 4 or 5bet missile comes in, the spewtards, on the contrary, feel they are so committed by then, that its cross fingers and hope hope hope.

Spewtards think they can push anyone of TP by CRAI with, well.......nothing. Aside from never thinking about the opposite player, and whether he has adjusted to the spewtard's glaring tendencies, they usually pick spots where said opponent is sitting on the near nuts, set, straight etc, probably the hand they are trying to rep. Tags will also call their oop all-in turn shoves (the spewtard will have cr'd the low flop, which the TAG will have called) with just overpairs, cos.....well....... it's a spewtard after all.

Be quick with your note taking on the Spewtard, because they don't hang around when they get busted. Some immediately go to another table where they can CR shove with renewed vigour until they get looked up again.

The spewtard can be identified with LAG preflop stats and a high CR% on flop and turn. They also tend to proliferate at sites where the all in button sits conveniently close to the bet slider. (I owe thanks to full tilt for the many double ups as a result of their software being suited to the spewtard tendencies)

When I am running card dead, and just sitting there folding and folding, spewtards can make an otherwise boring session into an extremely entertaining and funny hour or so, seeing them getting busted time after time.

I will post a typical hand history that illustrates the Spewtard next post.

100k hands at 50nl

2009-08-08T20:10:00.003+01:00

Having played this number of hands I am gonna move back up to 100nl and play 6max there this month.

100k hands may not seem a lot to some, buts its a big deal to me, and I think you can see from the graph how my play improved as I became more comfortable with the level.

I am fully prepared to lose a bit at 100nl 6max, but here's to the next 100k hands there.

Playing Aggro Donks Part 2

2009-08-04T09:14:00.007+01:00

This is part 2 on my thoughts on the overagrro donks who think they are so baller at 50nl 6max. See my previous post for aggro donks part 1.

Another thing the Aggro donk can't help himself over is the battle of the blinds. If he is in the bb and sb limps, he loves to raise regardless of his holdings, cos that's what they do in the CR videos. He doesn't think back to what happened before, or whether it's a typical thing from his opponent, he does it because "that's what aggressive players do, and aggression pays".

When I have one of these types on my left, from the sb I may limp, (it's usually the only time I ever do) with, say a pp or Ahigh or good SC, and either repop him big preflop or cr the flop. watch them time down and fold, hollywooding their big laydown.

I keep the chat box switched on, because some aggro donks love to express how good they are at poker (not), by slagging off another player. If they get beaten, the other play got lucky, etc etc. They like to needle players Mike Matusow style, completely lacking in any class or dignity.

Checking some of the typical aggro donks data, quite often they are moving down from a higher level, (prob after having been crushed there) and have a low opinion of the lowly opposition at said limits.

July results

2009-08-01T16:58:00.003+01:00

Here's the graph for my play in July. It was all at 50nl 6max, and I had a great time. I experimented with different aspects of my game. I played highball v the aggrodonks (see previous post) and tried out some limping along v the superdonks (as opposed to isolating) with somehands (pp and conectors) to see how it works.

I do think I could have had a slightly higher winrate, but for my trying out different plays.

Variance was against me for some of the month, and please note the 10bi loss at the 1st session of the month, which put the pressure on me from the off.

With rakeback and a FT bonus, it was decent enough for me for 50nl. Next month its time to try out 100nl 6max.

Playing Aggro Donks

2009-07-28T21:27:00.015+01:00

Man, I used to get tired of playing against the nit regs at full ring (was I one too???), but at 6max it's the aggro donks that seem to think they're the thang and proliferate there. Quite incapable of playing post flop, obsessed with keeping their vpip/pfr stats as close as possible to each other, they think it's uncool to flat call preflop, and instead you can hear them saying "duhhhhhh......it's 3bet or fold with this small pocket pair. Can't set mine at 6max.....duhhhh" Flush draw? Oh.....Check raise all in regardless of the other guys holding, "fold equity" they say.

Post flop they have no dynamic, and its double barreling or folding etc etc. Hand reading isn't in the aggro donk's vocabulary, neither is varied bet sizing. They range from around 21/20 to 34/29 but always have a very high 3bet% and a lowish cont bet after 3betting (suggest you find that stat offline). If you can catch on, and be prepared for a somewhat higher variance style of play, they will pay you off handsomely.

The aggro donk can never understand why he can't get above or even reach 200nl, as they whine in the forums, but its because they can't play proper poker. They take tournament pre and post flop strategies and apply them blindly to cash.

I used to avoid locking horns with them, and did just fine, but as the month closes I have been experimenting with a higher variance style of play before I move back up to 100nl and try 6 max there. It's more out of curiousity to see what exactly they are playing with. It's brought my win rate down a bit, but who cares.

Here's a typical hand.
Aggro donk has position on me and I have been playing pretty tight at that particular table. His stats are 25/23 with a 13.2% 3bet stat, classic aggro profile.

$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players

Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

BB: $56.05 (112.1 bb)
Hero (MP1): $145.35 (290.7 bb)
MP2: $63.15 (126.3 bb)
CO: $16.50 (33 bb)
BTN: $88.20 (176.4 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP1 with Q J
sometimes I will throw this UTg but as I have been very quiet with a low VPIP, this is an excellent way to open

Hero raises to $1.50, MP2 raises to $5, 3 folds, Hero raises to $14.50, MP2 calls $9.50

MP2 aggro donk 3bets me, and I decide to rep AA-KK and 4bet, he's been 3betting everyone relentlessly, and guess he will have to fold unless he has JJ-AA, AK, in which case he will definitely shove (I hope) and I can fold. He surprises me by flat calling. The only hands that might do that are TT-QQ and maybe AK-AQ. JJ and QQ are unlikely (although possible) due to my holding and the fact that JJ-QQ are still like AA to aggro donks. I am very unhappy that he called however, as I have a weakish holding OOP. I just wanted him to fold.....

Flop: ($29.50) 4 3 J (2 players)
Hero bets $18, MP2 raises to $48.65 and is all-in, Hero calls $30.65
Good flop for me, especially as I am surish he doesn't have JJ-QQ. TT more likely now, but AKs diamond very possible too in which case we are flipping. I am calling his all in 3bet.
Turn: ($126.80) 7 (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: ($126.80) Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results: $126.80 pot ($3.00 rake)

Hero showed Q J (two pairs, Queens and Jacks) and won $123.80 ($60.65 net)
MP2 showed 9 8 (high card Queen) and lost (-$63.15 net)

Aggro donk proceeds to complain in chat box how I could possibly 4bet there and what was I playing at, completely ignoring the fact that he 3bet bluffed with 98s from an UTG raiser (not the end of the world I guess, but still daft) and THEN called a 4bet with 98s against what looked like AA-KK.

They can't help themselves.

If he had just flat called pre, and 3bet my cont bet, I would have folded, even with TP, on such a bad draw board, as we were both deep and I wasn't committed, and was out of pos.

Edit: see aggro donks part 2 here

Best Time to Play at Microstakes

2009-07-26T21:39:00.008+01:00

I played a meg session last night after I got home from my sister's barbecue. Its not something I normally do, and in fact I have only played twice before, late on a Saturday night.

The play felt more like 10nl than 50nl and it was an orgy of horrendous plays over horrendous plays. unfortunately I never ran particularly well but I still took 3 buy ins without having to think much. I would suggest if ever you wished to take a shot at a higher level, and had the stomach to take some weird bad beats by people playing Any Two Cards, 12midnight and onwards GMT is the time to do it.

I would also say I had had a good few glasses of wine, and played more laggy than I would normally, which is never optimal when surrounded my loose maniacs, when ABC TAG is the way.

Running bad/good or just natural variance

2009-07-21T17:03:00.006+01:00

I still consider myself a new player, do they call it noob??, as I think, from reading 2p2 and the like, you really need around 500k hands to start to know when you are playing well online (live and/or mid/high stakes is different) and when you are just getting lucky. Then it also figures that the reverse is also true, that you need to know when you are playing badly versus when things are just going against you, ie variance. I think that ingrained knowledge can only come from experience, and that in turn can help you stay away from tilt. The feeling of thinking the world is against you is what it can be like to a new player, and can really bum you up. The knowledge that this is part of the game, has happened to you before, and that as long as you keep playing your game things will turn around is invaluable, and is the key to avoid tilt, and staying cool.

Given that many small stakes winning players play up to 30k hands per week, through the year they may have dips and troughs in their graphs that can last 50k or more hands, and that would last over a whole month worth of a small volume player, its really important to keep perspective on your own mini swings.

Full Tilt update and HUD

2009-07-13T19:41:00.007+01:00

Full Tilt have updated their software, and I am not impressed.

Aside from the bugs within the new re-player, my AHK scripts no longer work, and they have stopped allowing observed hands to be viewed within the HUD, unless you are actually active and posting. (Fair enough I suppose, although I have never understood the whole data mining thing, it only takes about 50 hands or so to determine the basics of how someone plays, and do we really have any more time to dissect their leaks? If we play against them very often, we get that info anyway?). I just like the idea of seeing players stats who are already in my (legit) database. It's somewhat contradictory to my last post where I noted that I use the HUD less and less, but the VPIP/PFR stats are pretty vital for multi-tabling.

So still playing 6-max and staying down at 50nl for the month. Its been a bit swingy this week, but I am still confident in the game structure and player standard, which still continues to amaze me with the amount of strange plays/CR-all-in-with-air and such.

I will end the post with this hand, up against a 32/3 guy who fell into the typical bad player trap, slow play your big (but very vulnerable) hands, let your opponents catch up and have you crushed, and only then get it all in. Note we are playing 200bbs as I had just doubled up, as had he. No check raise on the flop, and note also the staged re-raising on the river. I mean, what else could I have had??

$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players

Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

BB: $99.80 (199.6 bb)
UTG: $44 (88 bb)
MP: $37.75 (75.5 bb)
CO: $50 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $97.15 (194.3 bb)
SB: $50 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with Q A
2 folds, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) T 5 A (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $3.45, Hero calls $3.45, BB calls $3.45

Turn: ($15.10) 9 (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero checks
For my part, I am taking a small risk here giving the free card with the nuts 3 way, but I have position. I am in a difficult spot if board pairs as I won't want to build a big pot probably.

River: ($15.10) J (3 players)
BB bets $15.10, CO folds, Hero raises to $41.50, BB raises to $67.90, Hero raises to $92.20 and is all-in, BB calls $24.30

Results: $199.50 pot ($3.00 rake)

BB mucked T T (three of a kind, Tens) and lost (-$97.15 net)
Hero showed Q A (a flush, Ace high) and won $196.50 ($99.35 net)

Using the HUD and understanding stats

2009-07-06T23:23:00.006+01:00

I am noticing my using the HUD stats that come with Holdem Manager less and less these days. In fact the only stat I place real attention to is VPIP. That makes the appeal of moving to sites that do not integrate into HEM data analysis and display somewhat more appealing.

That’s not to say I understand all those bloody stats. Truth of the matter is they bamboozle me. But when deciding whether to call his river shove on what could be a busted draw, relying on a HUD to help you is pretty risky actually. Am I really gonna make a decision based on his “won when went to showdown stat”? I wouldn’t know what it should be.

I know there are vids and discussions out there explaining what is optimal ranges for these stats, but I am not going to base a decision solely on them. Would it sway me at all in the above example? Would it make 10% difference, 20%…..?

There’s no right answer here but my instinct is certainly to try to move away from relying on a HUD

I certainly find that cards appear less important in 6max, where the game has more of a rhythm to it. I know a guy’s going to 3bet me in the blinds before he has even done it often, and sometimes I have made my mind up about what I am going to do when an inevitable bet comes, regardless of my own cards. Stats I use here are STEAL, CONT BET and 3BET, and this is the other end of the HUD that still helps me. There’s a Zen like tranquillity when you have this state of mind, where getting stacked doesn’t seem to have any bearing in proceedings…….although I promise it doesn’t happen to me often! (being in a Zen like state that is, I get stacked all the time..)

June 2009 review

2009-06-30T23:18:00.012+01:00

Another weird month, where I continued to experiment with aspects of my game, and for the first time since turning to cash game, tried out 6max in place of full ring.

With regards to full ring, the line is too up and down for my liking, due to I think my pushing spots too much, due to a little impatience. At these stakes and game type, it's just a case of waiting patiently, as folks WILL gladly give you their stacks. But as with all aspects of poker, just because you know the right play, it doesn't mean you actually take it.

Anyway here is the FR graph

Definitely beginning to tire of full ring, at this limit at least. I think to take full advantage of the slowness of it, 16-24 tabling is definitely the answer for me, and I just don’t want to play poker like a robot. I have already questioned the motivation for short stacking, and I am beginning to think that FR multi-tabling beyond 6-8 tables is a similarly bland way to eke out a crust, which loses all the dimensions of no-limit I find enjoyable.

I also think these monthly graphs are not much use, reading the grinders blogs who can go through +100k hands break even stretches, for me a yearly graph showing 350k hands would be able to even out variance and show my correct win rate. But even that is on the thin side, where 1million hands seems to be the sample to note.

I assume that the higher stakes you play, and the deeper stacks you also play, the less hands you need to play as the skill level increases. I think??

Onward to 6max and although a smallish sample I found it more suited to my style of play.

There seem to be more spots to bluff and represent, whereas at FR these guys always have what I ‘ m repping.

And here is the 6max graph.

As you can see, it's been an enjoyable foray.

In summary, for both FR and 6max, for under £30k hands it’s a decent little profit for both games, before rakeback, but for the upcoming month I intend to remain around the 50 or 100nl to continue to learn 6max and check out how the variance might bite.

Adventure into 6max

2009-06-28T22:08:00.005+01:00

Thanks to a conversation with "havin a laff" I decided to have a go at 6max towards the end of this month. A couple of reasons for this:

-I have never tried it seriously before

-I am getting reeeeally bored sitting watching the set miners at FR and find I start stealing with trashier hands each orbit.

-As many have read in previous posts, I hate the short stackers that populate the FR tables, but I guess their "strategy" doesn't work for 6max as there appears to be far fewer of them.

To do this I dropped down a level to 50nl and am mucking around with 4 tabling at present. I have no idea whether the rakeback is better or is cancelled out by paying more blinds, but I am sure I will find out. So far I have played around 300o hands.

Ulimate Bet advice wanted, and Scum at the tables

2009-06-26T09:32:00.008+01:00

Don’t know if there is anyone out there who could advise me on whether it is worth making the switch to Ultimate Bet from Fulltilt, but I am interested in their bonuses and have heard that the 100nl games are ok, although there are not many of them. Any comments greatly appreciated.

One other thing, I had the misfortune to sit at a table with one of the most repulsive individuals I have ever seen at FT the other day. This guy squeezed with trash, and then berated a guy who busted him playing perfectly decent poker in my view. Calling him all the names under the sun. He proceeded to pick on the guy 3betting him relentlessly and finally they got it all in with 2 high pairs preflop, his KK holding up against the others JJ (I think).

He proceeded to laugh in the chat box, and be a general piece of shit, after busting a player.

I looked him up and he's a big grinder, he had moved down from 400nl so clearly thought he was slumming it, above us micro players, and that the bet sizing wasn’t as important, due to the move down. He should know better.

It depresses me so much to see these classless lowlife hiding behind their keyboards thinking they can behave like trash. I would love to give his screen name out, but have decided against it. He was from Germany though. Most online players are pretty cool, but these scum ruin it.

Is it worth turning off the chat box, as others suggest? Up till now I have followed it because I think there are so many tells from fish people babbling away.

Notes on isolating

2009-06-17T14:49:00.004+01:00

Seen it in videos, forums etc etc. that’s the way you play poker right??? You know the story, loosie call station limps, you look down at KJ in late position and raise, folds round to limper who calls. Flop comes 67T, he checks, you bet and he calls. Turn is a brick, he checks, you check, river is an ace, he bets pot you fold, and start moaning about the fish.

I have read so many blogs of people complaining about how they can’t beat the “donks” who keep calling them down light. If you’re gonna take this line, I think you have to take it on fully. The only way you can make it work for you, in my view, is if your prepared to play a very aggressive game. KJ is a weak holding, especially in full ring. BUT ITS NOT CARDS THAT MATTER. It’s position.

Which means using your position, and being prepared to triple barrel if necessary. And with that, being prepared for a high variance/up-and-down graph. But certainly not checking the turn (in the example above)

I was 3bet by someone today holding AKs, and they didn’t fire on the flop, nor the turn, nor the river. With my button J9s I caught a 9 on a Q69 board to win the checked board. But he only needed to fire 1 shell to make me fold (I am playing the J9s to bust the guy, not to pick up a pair). But he didn’t, and instead mouthed off to me in the chat box about how loose and lucky I was and shouldn’t have called his 3bet (he's the big blind), and how he could never beat “the donks”, of which I was one.

We play with 100BB+ for a reason, chips are a weapon. If someone’s going to call three streets on a weak holding then its tough, but if you take the isolate or 3bet bluff line, at least you have to be prepared for a bit of double or treble barrelling. Put them to the test, smash them over the head with your chips and make them let go. Otherwise ignore those cool Stox/cardunners sharks, play ABC and stop moaning.

More notes on Short stacking betting strategy at 100nl

2009-06-10T11:00:00.004+01:00

I haven’t seen a great deal of strategy articles about how to tackle the push bot short stackers, and I haven’t been that inclined to experiment with them until recently. By the way I’ve still to hear a convincing argument for trying it, but, as many have said, its here to stay and we cant ignore it.

The fact is, the juiciest tables remain the normal buyin tables (as opposed to a minimum 50bb tables, populated by many regs) and its silly of me to ignore the easier play there.

Up till recently I have been a religious follower of raising the same amount every time from all positions. In that way, no one can ever know what hand you are holding. And I would play 67s utg post flop the same way as if I had AA. (I don’t always raise 67s utg by the way)

On the tables populated by 20bb push bots and 20bb fish, this may be a losing strategy. (in fact I don’t think its optimal full stop at 100nl and below, because I don’t think people care what you might have or are representing). The push bot guy is gonna shove whether you have put in 2bb or 4bb with his AQ/66+ or whatever it is that these guys love, and the fish are gonna call regardless. So it gives an initial pot control and lets you get away easy from the push. Mixing up 2bb AA with 2bb 65s and 4bb AA and 4bb 65s is fine, although you need players to hang around the table for at least 200 hands to get into that line.

I have also spent a lot more time considering continuation bets, both my own, and others. Its clear to me players with 90%+ cont bet are very exploitable. Perhaps at 25nl and below, the fit fold line they take makes c-betting 100% of the time really profitable, but I think the dynamic has definetly changed at 50nl+, where good players have woken up to it as a straightforward betting line. Another area where BB can be saved/gained. All the books I read religiously preached about the cont bet, but because of that precisely, the straightforward player makes himself very predictable. Betting strategy related to board texture is far more profitable (bet value, bet bluff, check for pot contol, check to induce, etc etc), rather than bet bet bet.

May 2009 graph

2009-06-07T12:08:00.008+01:00

Enclosed graph shows my limited play during last month. The lighter line shows my all-in EV and the heavy line shows my actual. Getting all in consistently as the favourite is all I can do. Happy with my play, just not sure if I am doing anything wrong. I would say this is not a load of AK v TT type of all ins, its my top set v J2s flush draws, rivered with quads type of bad beats. A difficult month, however, and my first ever losing month since starting playing online poker.

In general I didn't play great poker, making a few too many river calls when knowing I was likely beat, and I will focus on laydowns in June.

How not to play Poker

2009-06-06T20:22:00.003+01:00

You may have noticed from previous posts that I think I am a hot shot poker player.

Well, when playing deepstacks, and OOP, (that's out of position for you "non experts" unlike me) I thought I would share this example of car crash decision making (from me), so obviously I am not the expert I think I am. I honestly have no excuse for such horrendous play....

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players

Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

BTN: $103.05 (103.1 bb)
SB: $199.55 (199.6 bb)
BB: $156 (156 bb)
Hero (UTG+1): $198.50 (198.5 bb)
UTG+2: $123.15 (123.2 bb)
MP1: $105.40 (105.4 bb)
MP2: $221.25 (221.3 bb)
MP3: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $50 (50 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is UTG+1 with K Q

Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, MP2 calls $3, 3 folds, SB calls $2.50, BB calls $2

Flop: ($12) J T K (4 players)

SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $7, MP2 raises to $24, 2 folds, Hero calls $17

Turn: ($60) 9 (2 players)

Hero checks, MP2 bets $60, Hero raises to $120, MP2 raises to $194.25 and is all-in, Hero calls $51.50 and is all-in

River: ($403) 5 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $403 pot ($3 rake)

Hero showed K Q (a straight, Nine to King) and lost (-$198.50 net)

MP2 showed Q A (a straight, Ten to Ace) and won $400 ($201.50 net)

what can I say. He is probably writing in his blog about what a superdonk I am.

and he's right.

quick update from a sad bloke

2009-05-19T10:56:00.003+01:00

I haven't played much over the past weeks due to various stuff, hence little posting. I do tend to post more when I am winning, and post less when I am losing, due to my big ego, and sense of pride.

I can say that since starting playing online cash games some 7 months ago at 5nl and building up a healthy bankroll throughout those months, nothing has prepared me for the run I have had these weeks. I can't whine about it, just too boring, but I hope it comes to an end soon. As a wee taster, in the past 10k hands, I have had a full house no less than 5 times, and each time the opponent had quads, all for full stacks, AAv KK? busto etc.

As it has never happened to me before, I have no idea how long this can last, but so far its been running bad around 30k hands since the middle of April. Is that possible or am I kidding myself? Am I rubbish?

sigh.

I will talk about my bet fold experiment next post.

Where Semi Bluffs Take A Life Of Their Own

2009-04-25T20:15:00.007+01:00

Listening to a bit of Joni Mitchell just now, chilling out to Ladies of the Canyon, one of the loveliest 45 minutes of music I have experienced. So chilled = a bit of thinking poker blogging……

I am generally one to avoid high variance poker. If you think you have a bigger edge than others, I think its better to avoid flips (prefl with say AK or post flop, the all in 15outer flush/str8t draw check raise v nit/superdonk with the overpair/tpnk who is gonna call you) as you will get better spots and avoid the stress of high variance play. But I have talked about this before in previous posts. That said, I have been experimenting this month, and decided to try this high variance style. Its difficult to say if its been profitable as I truly have had the worst run I have had, and still having. But ignoring that, I have started to see some patterns emerging, where a small check raise, or 4bet or whatever will elicit the information you need by your opponents bets in his reply,

I use this hand as an example. Opponent is a winning player, playing 12/9 over a small hand sample, both of us 100bb.

Opponents MP 3bb raise is really difficult to pin down here, as I have no history, some players 4bb AA and 3bb speculative hands, few mix it up, but I never worry about the size of the raise at this stage. No way I am 3 betting here versus his very tight range, but type of player that offers great odds to set mine (as opposed to someone raising a far greater range).

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players

Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

BTN: $137.15 (137.2 bb)
Hero (SB): $106.50 (106.5 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $74 (74 bb)
UTG+1: $84 (84 bb)
MP1: $101.90 (101.9 bb)
MP2: $100 (100 bb)
MP3: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $112.95 (113 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 6 6

UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, MP1 raises to $3, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, BTN folds, Hero calls $2.50, BB folds

Flop: ($7) 5 4 2 (2 players)

Hero checks, MP1 bets $4, Hero raises to $11, MP1 raises to $18, Hero calls $7

Flop hits and I have a gutshot, plus quite possibly the best hand….time to find out. I check raise….and he does something that really throws me…he min 4bets me….it’s the worst possible thing he can do as he is almost giving me the correct odds for hitting my 6 outs plus my implied odds of stacking him. But worse it’s polarising his range to an overpair, 99-AA. AK-AQ offsuit I think is very unlikely as he would be mucking to a check raise. AK of clubs, well if he isn’t pushing with that then I am very surprised, so I am eliminating that. A set? He’s raising a bigger amount to charge me, surely??

Turn: ($43) 8 (2 players)

Hero checks, MP1 bets $15, Hero calls $15

Turn brings me a further 4 outs and I am thinking about giving up, but then he makes another mistake. I am checking and if he checks behind I am giving up as it is certain he has me beat. But he makes another mistake, he bets 1/3 the pot giving me 4-1 on a river with 10 outs plus the aforementioned implied odds. I eliminate the set possibility entirely. Therefore I am playing as if we are in a limit game and playing the odds, therefore I call, something I would never ever do normally on the turn without the near nuts.

River: ($73) 5 (2 players)

Hero bets $70.50 and is all-in, MP1 folds

River bricks. I am certain I am beat but we both have 70bbs behind and I know that he knows that I could very possible have a set, as I never call in the blinds without a holding that can improve, (I am 3betting all my “non improvables” like AA 80% of the time). In fact I only ever call from the blinds if I think I can stack one of the opponents who has position on me on later streets, and AA is not one of those.

Now I need to complete the “story” he has allowed me to make. I cannot call ANY bet here, unless its like 5bb etc, which it’s why I need to push all in, making a pot sized 70bb bet. No way I am doing this against a poor player, but against a good player, he is going to lay his overpair down at least 50% of the time, and make it impossible to make any attempt at bluffing an unlikely busted draw . I know I would……..

I would add the circumstances for making this play are as rare as actually hitting the set on the flop. Position, flop texture, player type, history etc…but making these plays I think is the only way you can learn no limit, and another of my motivations for playing full stack poker against other full stack players. I just love it. It also gives you that wafer edge against the break even players.

Any comments welcome on whether I have misread something.

Well Joni is finished and I am going to see my friend playing in a gig.