January 25, 2011

Folding KK Pre flop

Our poker education is never ending, but I know there are many who think folding Kings pre is a complete joke.

At 6max it's harder to ever fold 1oobb deep (200+bb deep it's a different story), although when a nit running at 14/12 UTG raises and you 3bet in the SB, and he shoves, there is only 3 hands he can have. KK, AK and AA. KK performs 39% to that range, factoring in card elimation. We are crushed. He is never bluffing.

If we include a wider range of QQ, (where flatting is the norm) we are 54%. So calling a jam is so very very likely for us to be way behind. And we think we have an edge in the game???? So let the flip go.

When we get to full ring the fold is even easier, and when we get deep stacked, it's a no brainer. The following example shows how easy it could be 250bb deep to stack even "competent" players, who will never ever ever fold KK pre.

Poker Stars NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players

LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+2: 263.40 BB
MP1: 141.20 BB
MP2: 257 BB
CO: 48.80 BB
Hero (BTN): 250 BB
SB: 100.40 BB
BB: 107.60 BB
UTG: 51.80 BB
UTG+1: 258.40 BB

Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to 3BB, 3 folds, MP2 raises to 10BB, CO folds, Hero calls 10BB,
(utg is an unknown, 52bb deep, 3bettor is running 19/13 over 75 hands with no 3bets and 257bb deep. Its an easy cold call of the 3 bet. I want to keep in UTG assuming he is behind, and I do not want to fold out 3bettors hands I am ahead of.)

2 folds, UTG raises to 51.8BB and is All-In, MP2 raises to 257BB and is All-In, Hero folds
(I am certain at least one of these players, if not both, have AA.)

Flop: (115BB) 3 Q 3 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Turn: (115BB) Q (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: (115BB) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: 115BB Pot (5.6BB Rake)
MP2 mucked K K and LOST (-51.8BB NET)
UTG showed A A and WON 109.4BB (+57.6BB NET)

Had I had AA on the button, I was winning the entire stack of my deep stacked friend. I mean, how much more obvious does it need to be when UTG shoves after a 3bet and a cold call???

What about the LAGS, what about the retards.....blah blah. I think you need a very good reason to call an all in in this spot, and that would include reads on 4betting and shoves over 300+ hands. In absence of that info......

5 comments:

  1. I posted on RTR and got slated for THINKING about folding KK pre flop. Was sure he had aces...

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  2. yes. its not like i make a habit of it, but Im still waiting for someone to challenge the maths of it

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. You don't need to be sure he has AA to fold here. You're paying 240BB to win a 551.8BB pot, so actually you need to be sure he has a wide enough range for you to have 43.5% equity before you can call. That means AA, the other KK, and QQ 2/3rds of the time, or AA, the other KK, all AKs, and AKo 2/3rds of the time, or some other combination of QQ and AK that's enough to get you there.

    Good fold! :)

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  5. Stephen, I think there are many that would talk themselves into their having that range, in order to call.

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