January 08, 2010

suckout? Me? I don't think so

Online Poker

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Registration code: 904254

An interesting hand came up where many may feel I sucked out and/or played it bad, including the other players at my table at the time, judging by the comments. But I don't think so. What do you think?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

Hero (BB): $138.10 (138.1 bb)
UTG: $127.60 (127.6 bb)
MP: $103.65 (103.7 bb)
CO: $151.30 (151.3 bb)
BTN: $140.25 (140.3 bb)
SB: $95 (95 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with T of hearts T of clubs
2 folds, CO raises to $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $15.50, CO calls $12, BTN calls $12
I squeeze TT, sometimes I just flat, it just depends. But, after my 3bet, when I get a caller and an overcaller, then their ranges (both standard regs who are capable of folding, and of making semi-bluffs) become quite polarised to 99-QQ type pocket pairs to the original raiser and speculative hands like JTs and baby pairs to the overcaller.

Flop: ($47) 2 of clubs 6 of hearts 5 of clubs (3 players)
Hero bets $41,
I have to represent AA here and I need to do this with a very big bet, which will fold out JJ-QQ.

CO folds, BTN raises to $124.75 and is all-in, Hero calls $81.60 and is all-in
Original raiser folds, but overcaller shoves his full stack, which is a further 120bb. So he has a set....

But does he?
Would you just shove a set against a guy who clearly has a lot behind and likely overpair? My guess is a thinking player wouldn't.

Believe me I tanked this for a while, but finally decided to call. I will give the full analysis of why after the result below.
Turn: ($292.20) Q of clubs (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($292.20) 2 of spades (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $292.20 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 2 of clubs 6 of hearts 5 of clubs Q of clubs 2 of spades

Hero showed T of hearts T of clubs (two pairs, Tens and Twos) and won $289.20 ($151.10 net)
BTN showed 5 of diamonds 6 of diamonds (two pairs, Sixes and Fives) and lost (-$138.10 net)

Why did I decide to call? Well the pot was laying me 28% due to the large amount of money that had gone in. Even ignoring an unlikely but possible (say 10%) total bluff, given his overcalling range with the possiblity of so many semi-bluff type combo draws, I reckon my equity is actually around 52%. I also have a club to take away one of those possible combo outs. And even if you just go by what he actually had, (2pair) I still had 30% equity so was about the right price (just..) for a call.

Gritting your teeth and calling is not great, but as long as you use your precious timebank seconds to think through what he could be doing that with, rather than blind hope, logic can really help you.

In this case therefore, I don't think i sucked out, in fact I actually made a good call. And most importantly, before you criticise the size of my bet on the flop, note that in the chat box after, as my TT was shown down, the original raiser who timed down, but finally folded to my pot cbet, on the flop, did indeed have JJ, and I achieved what I was setting out to do, by repping AA.


  1. Very interesting because in cash games I take this villain's line a lot pre-flop with SCs when someone squeezes behind, and I likewise come over the top on the flop when I hit the miracle two pair. I hadn't thought too much about how the equity of the guy with the overpair actually works out. Maybe I'll start flatting and shoving turns with 2p here more often to rep the set. That's certainly the more conservative / stronger line I'd usually take in a SnG....

  2. When I see a almost pot sized bet in a 3 bet pot unless they are unusually aggressive, I think villains are almost always repping an overpair and want a fold. I guess just over half pot CBets are standard in 3bet pots? I like your bet size in this case because you force them to make a decision rather than giving them an opportunity to make a 'cheap' float or semi-bluff raise. And you fold out hands like JJ/TT. Facing this bet I probably need something like QQ+ to consider continuing. I guess his range is Ax clubs, 78s, & a set. I probably wouldn't put 65 in his range. Isn't calling a 3bet with 65s a bit fishy?

  3. if only 65s in 100bb its a bit marginal, but we were both a bit depper, and he did have the odds. In my view neither me nor him made a mistale in the hand, and the fact that i scooped the pot is irrelevant. the only player who nade a "mistake" was the folder, but even that was totally understandable the way it played out. its the beauty of no limit. in limit, or with a shortstacker mentality, that thought process just is not possible

  4. Well, what range of suited connectors isn't fishy? 65s+ ~= JTs- in this spot as far as villain is concerned if MBB's range is mostly QQ+. TPGK is perceptively no good, so it's just a question of whether you hit the flop hard or you don't -- 2p, trips, flush or straight draw. A higher range is actually worse because you might hit the str8 draw while opponent hits a set and opponent otherwise could have blockers, so lower suited connectors have slightly better odds of hitting and getting there.

  5. wow, that's why I follow your blog...
    you're comments make it al seem to logic.
    some blogs are realy full with crap but your's is an inspiration!
    Thank you for sharing your knowledge...
    hope my english is a bit understandable.

  6. Another good post, whole blog was a good read tbh.

    Although I noticed recently you commented on early posts you made quite negativley mate? Why? Has your thought process adjusted, alot of your early stuff hit the nail on the head IMO and your thought process during the hands you post is exceptional, even where challenged you take it on board and give respectful explanations.

    Glad I linked you. Read mine by all means but it's a bit of this and that, so nothing nearly as focused as yours.

    Have you had a peruse of RtR (Raise the River)btw, it's a friendly forum and your experiences Micro to Low/Mid stakes, combined with your insight you would be a welcomed addition. What forums do you go on?