Using the HUD and understanding stats

I am noticing my using the HUD stats that come with Holdem Manager less and less these days. In fact the only stat I place real attention to is VPIP. That makes the appeal of moving to sites that do not integrate into HEM data analysis and display somewhat more appealing.

That’s not to say I understand all those bloody stats. Truth of the matter is they bamboozle me. But when deciding whether to call his river shove on what could be a busted draw, relying on a HUD to help you is pretty risky actually. Am I really gonna make a decision based on his “won when went to showdown stat”? I wouldn’t know what it should be.

I know there are vids and discussions out there explaining what is optimal ranges for these stats, but I am not going to base a decision solely on them. Would it sway me at all in the above example? Would it make 10% difference, 20%…..?

There’s no right answer here but my instinct is certainly to try to move away from relying on a HUD

I certainly find that cards appear less important in 6max, where the game has more of a rhythm to it. I know a guy’s going to 3bet me in the blinds before he has even done it often, and sometimes I have made my mind up about what I am going to do when an inevitable bet comes, regardless of my own cards. Stats I use here are STEAL, CONT BET and 3BET, and this is the other end of the HUD that still helps me. There’s a Zen like tranquillity when you have this state of mind, where getting stacked doesn’t seem to have any bearing in proceedings…….although I promise it doesn’t happen to me often! (being in a Zen like state that is, I get stacked all the time..)

June 2009 review

Another weird month, where I continued to experiment with aspects of my game, and for the first time since turning to cash game, tried out 6max in place of full ring.

With regards to full ring, the line is too up and down for my liking, due to I think my pushing spots too much, due to a little impatience. At these stakes and game type, it's just a case of waiting patiently, as folks WILL gladly give you their stacks. But as with all aspects of poker, just because you know the right play, it doesn't mean you actually take it.

Anyway here is the FR graph

Definitely beginning to tire of full ring, at this limit at least. I think to take full advantage of the slowness of it, 16-24 tabling is definitely the answer for me, and I just don’t want to play poker like a robot. I have already questioned the motivation for short stacking, and I am beginning to think that FR multi-tabling beyond 6-8 tables is a similarly bland way to eke out a crust, which loses all the dimensions of no-limit I find enjoyable.

I also think these monthly graphs are not much use, reading the grinders blogs who can go through +100k hands break even stretches, for me a yearly graph showing 350k hands would be able to even out variance and show my correct win rate. But even that is on the thin side, where 1million hands seems to be the sample to note.

I assume that the higher stakes you play, and the deeper stacks you also play, the less hands you need to play as the skill level increases. I think??

Onward to 6max and although a smallish sample I found it more suited to my style of play.

There seem to be more spots to bluff and represent, whereas at FR these guys always have what I ‘ m repping.

And here is the 6max graph.

As you can see, it's been an enjoyable foray.

In summary, for both FR and 6max, for under £30k hands it’s a decent little profit for both games, before rakeback, but for the upcoming month I intend to remain around the 50 or 100nl to continue to learn 6max and check out how the variance might bite.

March 2009 Review

After continuing to run bad through the start of March, I kept discipline and didn’t spew, as I think I did in February. By the second week my results improved and at the end of week 2 I decided to try 4 tabling 100nl. I played very conservatively as I am a bit soft, but by the end of the month, 8 tabling comfortably, I have found the increased level to suit my style.

I only managed 20k hands for some reason (last month I played 27k). I played 10k hands at 50nl for 6.2ptbb/100 and 10k hands at 100nl for 5.9ptbb/100. I tightened up my game considerably (4% less VPIP) and increased my agression factor.

Here is my graph….

I hope I ran reasonably average although I only had 1 flush over flush and 1 set over set coolers at 100nl. My aces held up against kings, and I made 3 terrible calls where I was busted by a)set v my AA deep-stacked on flop b)quads v my flush c)made stupid play where I had 97s v set in a 3 bet pot with me in position.

winnings $1862

rakeback $250

Overall $2012

Looking beck at what I said at last months review;I exceeded my goal of 3ptbb/100 for 50nl, although I did not do a whole month at that level.

Goals for April

I shall try Pokerstars 100nl in April. Add 2-4 new tables for 10-12 tabling and integrate AHK. 4ptbb/100 hands. (is 6pt/100 sustainable? Or have I just been lucky?)

Approach to Multi-tabling

I think of myself as a winning person. I am confident about the majority of the things I do. I am not arrogant, I just believe in my abilities, and I work hard at things I put my mind to. I think everyone should have this ethic. My approach to poker typifies this. I think I am able to win. So if I am not winning, for whatever reason, I go crazy and work my ass of to figure out how that is, and do something about it. I certainly don’t put it down to bad luck, as we all have equal doses of good and bad luck.

With that in mind I am faced with an interesting choice. I am certainly good enough I think to aim for a 24 tabling rakeback pro approach to the game which will net me a safe income over the next year if I choose to go that way. (At present I play 800 hands per day after I finish working. I work for myself by the way, and the aim would be to up this to 2400 hands and ultimately 4800 by playing 4 hours per day, 2hours very early in the morning v USAdonks, 2hours in evening v Eurodonks)

I also believe however I am good enough to go beyond the 200nl ceiling (eventually) and play at 1000nl and beyond. (note I have never even played beyond 100nl so I am happy to have someone enlighten me)

But I do not think I can do both. In order to reach 1000nl, HUDS AHK and all the other little tools we use become more and more redundant as the thinking becomes more advanced. To 24 table, you have to have a robotic approach to the game, which certainly plateaus at 200nl in my view.

So I am not sure over these coming months to aim for a 24 table unambitious but (I hope) relatively safe approach to the game as I take it more seriously, or continue to 6-8 table and learn my game and the players more thoroughly, and move through the levels and take shots.

The danger of setting up for supernova et al is, having read other’s blogs, it appears to become a kind of obsession, be it 24 tabling, achieving bonuses, or bigger and bigger hand volumes. But are these guys getting better?

Food for thought…….