The EV Graph-Line, Losers, Whiners and Winners

Hi there
I really never understand people posting their boring whines about running below EV. The EV line in tracking software such as PT and HEM indicates when you get your money in good, as a favourite. It’s like posting all your AA hands that were crushed by KK all-in pre-flop. Yawn…....

Anyone that whines about being unlucky has "loser" written all over them in my mind, and who probably persuades themselves eventually into seeing monsters under the bed, gorging on their bad-beat-jackpot stories and continuing their boring downward spiralling vicious circle and compounding their bad luck.

Lets just think about it for a second…….

Conversely, of course you can only run above EV when you consistently get your money in bad....makes sense no? getting your money in bad is baaaaad. Getting your money in good (ie at least 51%, but usually at least 68% upwards) means you can only be sucked out on. You can’t give the bad beat.

If you want to whine about running below EV you should see my graph, it is mouth-watering how much I should have won, a healthy 4-figure sum over the past 50k hands at my little micro limits. But I am still winning. And I still consistently get my money in good.

That’s poker is it not? And I am happy with it that way. Because I think I have an edge in poker, and that horrid EV line proves it, as does the upward winnings line over a healthy hand sample.

And you should be happy too.

I have no problems saying I think I am an excellent player, who can progress far in the game by the way. Because I believe that. And if I didn’t, I wouldn’t be playing No-Limit. Especially No-Limit, self-belief is everything, as you can’t hide behind the maths as much as you can in Limit (unless you short-stack, and you know my thoughts on that fucked-up strategy). In order to beat the psychology of the game, knowing you have an edge on even the better players is part of avoiding fear and instead making them fear you. I aspire to become better at No-limit because I honestly believe it makes me a better, stronger person.

So forget about the EV line. And Instead........?

Hate them, kill them off. And you’ll win. No friends at the tables.

Notes on The Red Line

Today was my first day playing poker for 10 days as I have been out of the country. It's gonna be a low volume month, which is crap.

Anyway I thought I would mention the red line graph on HEM since I have seen it discussed on numerous micro blogs.

Frankly, I couldn't care less about it. I rarely look at the showdown/nonshowdown winnings graph, because I only look at things that can help me, and that can't help me.

Why? Paying too much attention to a balanced red line will fuck with your head and make you play sub-optimally. One of the main aspects the a "good" redline demonstrates is an understanding of fold equity. If you are reading this blog, you are likely playing at stakes on or under 100nl, and if so, its showdown winnings and blind stealing that are the order of the day. I would say the adjustment in fold equity between 25nl-100nl is relatively small, whereas the adjustment between 100nl to 200 and on to 400nl is massive comparatively.

Playing your opponents cards, value betting with the best hand and folding with the worst of it is the way of it 100nl and below, not trying to push top pair lovers off their "marginal" holding.

Playing a 32/25/10%3bet style will get tons of folds and a nice red line, but I have yet to see a big winner playing these stats at 100nl. You will win lots of small pots, but lose a significant amount of big pots, which combine to make a losing player.

I like to summarise with a hand as usual, and here we bust a top-pair-loving opponent by playing optimally against his stupid overvalue-top-pair style.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details
MP: $84.90 (84.9 bb)
CO: $211.35 (211.4 bb)
BTN: $120.45 (120.5 bb)
Hero (SB): $100 (100 bb)
BB: $108.65 (108.7 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 4 A

MP calls $1, 2 folds, Hero completes, BB checks
Flop: ($3) 2 9 5 (3 players)
Hero bets $2, BB folds, MP raises to $6, Hero calls $4

We lead out the flop with a semi-bluff with a combo draw, to build the pot.When it's raised, we can guess what he has. Most likely the overpair or TP. Many players (redline lovers) will 3bet-shove here with the combo draw, but against this typical 100nl station's range, we are flipping, when you factor in the unlikely sets. He is never ever laying down an overpair, or top pair. There is no fold equity. So why flip?

Turn: ($15) 3 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $10, Hero raises to $45, MP calls $35
We just call the flop 3bet and chase our draw, which we hit and he will still pay us off when we hit, which he duly does here, as we check raise him, although I am surprised to see just how lightly he calls.

River: ($105) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $48 and is all-in, MP calls $32.90 and is all-in

Results: $170.80 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 2 9 5 3 Q
MP mucked 9 J (a pair of Nines) and lost (-$84.90 net)
Hero showed 4 A (a straight, Ace to Five) and won $167.80 ($82.90 net)

We risk an additional 4bb on the flop (and possibly another check call 8bb on the turn if it bricks) to get exactly the same result as if we risked 90bb by shoving on 50% equity.

Forget about the red line. Seriously, there is too much else out there to master at these limits. Once you do master them, it's move up time to optimize your win rate, and THEN start looking at fold equity. But if you can get players to lay down decent hands at 100nl, your throwing money away. Because you should have moved up at that point......your crushing.

Hud Robot part 2 and the Professor

Just read back over my post profiling the Hud Robot as a player type and I stupidly forgot to mention their favourite player.

Silly me. Pretty obvious really, in case you haven't already gathered......

ITS HOWARD LEDERER STUPID!!

And talking of the man himself, I think he can safely kiss any remaining credibility of being the "professor" of poker goodbye after his recent performance on Poker After Dark with Dwan, Ivy, Zigmund et al. Not sure if you saw it, but it was the biggest illustration I have seen yet as to how the game has been totally changed in the last 2 years. Notwithstanding that, even Hellmuth was prepared to mix it up a bit with Dwan at the last cash game there, but Lederer, on losing his AA to a set for 200bb ($100k) in one of the first hands (overplayed in true ubernit style), Lederer rebought, shut up shop and folded hand after hand for the remaining entire week of poker. I have no idea what he was thinking, but he must surely have been aware that the poker world was watching. And with another $20k of blinds and antes away, he confirmed to me that cash poker deep stacked leaves you nowhere to hide.

Clearly playing scared money, what he thought he was doing there, or hoped to prove, is beyond me, and aside from his awful ring game, he demonstrated one of the biggest errors any novice player can ever make, that of poor game selection.

The Hud Robot

There are a few people out there who, at some time in their life, had their imaginations removed by a quick painless operation that they may no longer remember how it happened. These people exist on a diet of mediocrity and over-logic. When these same people find poker, they in turn find themselves obsessing to such huge amounts over their other organ -their HUD.

Welcome to the world of the HUD Robot.

We all love our Huds, and we all use them a bit. The HUD Robot however, likes to have 3 rows of stats as the minimum, but I have seen screenshots of guys with 5 before. PT was good, but Holdem Manager was heaven, especially with the 3bet stats that came in.

As such, the critical things of no limit (the "look and feel" of deep stack play) which no HUD can teach you, pass these poor souls by. When facing a CR on a wet board therefore, their poor little HUD can't cope, and in this unfortunate vacuum of statistical information, they panic, as they have to make a decision ON THEIR OWN, which, due to the panic, usually means a wrong decision.

The HUD robot will usually be, in the outside world, a good reliable right hand man to the boss of a company, loyally carrying out same boss's directions in good worker ant fashion, as he is not comfortable making decisions on his own.

The Hud Robot also adores books by Sklansky, especially those like NLT&P where plenty of mathematics are written out for him to examine and "copy".

How to spot a HUD Robot? A bit tricky at first. Standard prelfop ranges and bet sizes, together with conventional play post flop, and long pauses at each betting round as they check their pop ups. (Nb the timing tell is only relevant once you have checked the amount of tables they are playing). This type rarely, if ever, value bet thin as their knowledge of stats means they are paranoid of never having the nuts, and the possibility that their opponnent could have just that. So the check on the end of a runner runner flush board with them having a 2 pair or a set is usually a good tell of their tendencies.

How to play a HUD Robot? Simple, really...just mix it up and fire into him when you hit your unlikely hand, his HUD won't tell him to fold. Confused, he will make the wrong decision usually.

Playing Spewtards

Here is some more musings on my little mini series of player types at the 6max micros.

The main difference between the aggro donks and the spewtards is the all-in button.

Whereas the aggros are capable of finally make a laydown after the 4 or 5bet missile comes in, the spewtards, on the contrary, feel they are so committed by then, that its cross fingers and hope hope hope.

Spewtards think they can push anyone of TP by CRAI with, well.......nothing. Aside from never thinking about the opposite player, and whether he has adjusted to the spewtard's glaring tendencies, they usually pick spots where said opponent is sitting on the near nuts, set, straight etc, probably the hand they are trying to rep. Tags will also call their oop all-in turn shoves (the spewtard will have cr'd the low flop, which the TAG will have called) with just overpairs, cos.....well....... it's a spewtard after all.

Be quick with your note taking on the Spewtard, because they don't hang around when they get busted. Some immediately go to another table where they can CR shove with renewed vigour until they get looked up again.

The spewtard can be identified with LAG preflop stats and a high CR% on flop and turn. They also tend to proliferate at sites where the all in button sits conveniently close to the bet slider. (I owe thanks to full tilt for the many double ups as a result of their software being suited to the spewtard tendencies)

When I am running card dead, and just sitting there folding and folding, spewtards can make an otherwise boring session into an extremely entertaining and funny hour or so, seeing them getting busted time after time.

I will post a typical hand history that illustrates the Spewtard next post.

Full Tilt update and HUD

Full Tilt have updated their software, and I am not impressed.

Aside from the bugs within the new re-player, my AHK scripts no longer work, and they have stopped allowing observed hands to be viewed within the HUD, unless you are actually active and posting. (Fair enough I suppose, although I have never understood the whole data mining thing, it only takes about 50 hands or so to determine the basics of how someone plays, and do we really have any more time to dissect their leaks? If we play against them very often, we get that info anyway?). I just like the idea of seeing players stats who are already in my (legit) database. It's somewhat contradictory to my last post where I noted that I use the HUD less and less, but the VPIP/PFR stats are pretty vital for multi-tabling.

So still playing 6-max and staying down at 50nl for the month. Its been a bit swingy this week, but I am still confident in the game structure and player standard, which still continues to amaze me with the amount of strange plays/CR-all-in-with-air and such.

I will end the post with this hand, up against a 32/3 guy who fell into the typical bad player trap, slow play your big (but very vulnerable) hands, let your opponents catch up and have you crushed, and only then get it all in. Note we are playing 200bbs as I had just doubled up, as had he. No check raise on the flop, and note also the staged re-raising on the river. I mean, what else could I have had??

$0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players

Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

BB: $99.80 (199.6 bb)
UTG: $44 (88 bb)
MP: $37.75 (75.5 bb)
CO: $50 (100 bb)
Hero (BTN): $97.15 (194.3 bb)
SB: $50 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with Q A
2 folds, CO raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.50, SB folds, BB calls $1

Flop: ($4.75) T 5 A (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $3.45, Hero calls $3.45, BB calls $3.45

Turn: ($15.10) 9 (3 players)
BB checks, CO checks, Hero checks
For my part, I am taking a small risk here giving the free card with the nuts 3 way, but I have position. I am in a difficult spot if board pairs as I won't want to build a big pot probably.

River: ($15.10) J (3 players)
BB bets $15.10, CO folds, Hero raises to $41.50, BB raises to $67.90, Hero raises to $92.20 and is all-in, BB calls $24.30

Results: $199.50 pot ($3.00 rake)

BB mucked T T (three of a kind, Tens) and lost (-$97.15 net)
Hero showed Q A (a flush, Ace high) and won $196.50 ($99.35 net)

Using the HUD and understanding stats

I am noticing my using the HUD stats that come with Holdem Manager less and less these days. In fact the only stat I place real attention to is VPIP. That makes the appeal of moving to sites that do not integrate into HEM data analysis and display somewhat more appealing.

That’s not to say I understand all those bloody stats. Truth of the matter is they bamboozle me. But when deciding whether to call his river shove on what could be a busted draw, relying on a HUD to help you is pretty risky actually. Am I really gonna make a decision based on his “won when went to showdown stat”? I wouldn’t know what it should be.

I know there are vids and discussions out there explaining what is optimal ranges for these stats, but I am not going to base a decision solely on them. Would it sway me at all in the above example? Would it make 10% difference, 20%…..?

There’s no right answer here but my instinct is certainly to try to move away from relying on a HUD

I certainly find that cards appear less important in 6max, where the game has more of a rhythm to it. I know a guy’s going to 3bet me in the blinds before he has even done it often, and sometimes I have made my mind up about what I am going to do when an inevitable bet comes, regardless of my own cards. Stats I use here are STEAL, CONT BET and 3BET, and this is the other end of the HUD that still helps me. There’s a Zen like tranquillity when you have this state of mind, where getting stacked doesn’t seem to have any bearing in proceedings…….although I promise it doesn’t happen to me often! (being in a Zen like state that is, I get stacked all the time..)

Pokerstars v Fulltilt

When I first started playing online, Pokerstars was where I played all my sitngos. When I moved to cash I wanted to try out bonuses and rakeback. So I signed up to Fulltilt. And I HATED IT. The software, the timeout features, the lobby everything. I persevered and spent the last 5 months there.

Well I have just spent a session at Pokersars which, although very profitable, was just not as I remembered it. I MISS FULLTILT!!!! The notes, the pot buttons and stuff. I think Holdem Manager sits better within their interface too.

Life is full of those contradictions isnt it??

I am sure it will take a few sessions and I will be just fine. Then I might go back to hating Fulltilt and loving Pokerstars????

Bad Beats at 50nl

2 things I decided not to dwell on in this blog:

1. No big long hand history descriptions and how I played the hand. Maybe I will change this, but when I read someone's poker blog, I can never usually be bothered looking at the hand histories, regardless of how they are presented.
2. No bad beat stories, or coolers or whatever. It happens to us all, so who cares.

That said, I have had my first experience of running bad at 50nl, where I have been making around 1-2 buy-ins per session up to that point. Got it all in v deep stack opponents within about 5 minutes of each other on the flop, being 80% favourite in both cases to see runner runner and thank you very much….down 5 buy-ins.

The point of this post is to see whether it affects me and how long I take to bounce back. Bad beats at 10nl or even 25nl just don’t seem as hard, despite my having a healthy bankroll for 50nl. It’s the first real hammering I have had for a long time.

So we shall see.

Meantime I am testing out Hold'em Manager version 1.07 and will report back with that too.