Thoughts on Rush Poker and My Pokerstars Microstakes Bankroll Project

I have been experimenting with various different games in the last few months, and one of these has been Full Tilt’s Rush Poker. One of the appeals to me is that you don’t need to bother with table selection, seat position, table breakups, and the main one, hands per hour is almost four times that of normal tables.

I started with 6 max, and I have to say that over 20k hands I just couldn’t get comfortable with it. I don’t know what it was, but I seemed to be getting raised off every flop, and whenever I shoved, I was crushed. I ran 5bi below equity over the small sample, which didn’t help, but I still never felt I had the control in many pots. There was tons of 5bet shoving in levelling wars with garbage like 89s in the bb versus the sb, for example. It felt far more aggressive than normal 6max, and I struggled with the lack of time to make decisions. I fired up some normal speed tables at same stakes, and I realised that was the problem. 6max is all about hand reading and selective aggression, bluffing is a big part of the game. I’m happy to accept I cannot do that without more time/reads/history to consider.

So I’m trying full ring. Here it’s a value-based game, where a more ABC style is fine, extracting the most from your strong hands and giving up more on your weaker ones, which means I don’t have to beat myself up about not being aggressive enough etc.

Turning now to Pokerstars, I am having a great time at the micro micros, trying to build up a bankroll there from $20, see my previous post on this here. I am just about to go up to $25nl as I am up to $700. I just stack 6 tables on my tiny laptop when I fancy a game.

Observations? $5nl is so straightforward I don’t think there is much to say, I played a very loose style, double barrelling a lot and seemingly picking up a ton of folds. I only ever 3 bet for value.
$10nl starts to see a bit of knowledgeable players, scattered between recreational and maniac players, who are either ubernits or aggro donks and its easy to adjust accordingly. Here a bit more selective agression, and try to avoid coin flips.

So I will keep going with it till I get to $50nl and then decide what I want to do, as I will then have decent bank rolls at both tilt and stars, and be able to make a judgement on which is the better site to play small stakes games 50nl up to 100nl.

Heres the graph so far, which is missing about the first 5k or so.

Folding KK Pre flop

Our poker education is never ending, but I know there are many who think folding Kings pre is a complete joke.

At 6max it's harder to ever fold 1oobb deep (200+bb deep it's a different story), although when a nit running at 14/12 UTG raises and you 3bet in the SB, and he shoves, there is only 3 hands he can have. KK, AK and AA. KK performs 39% to that range, factoring in card elimation. We are crushed. He is never bluffing.

If we include a wider range of QQ, (where flatting is the norm) we are 54%. So calling a jam is so very very likely for us to be way behind. And we think we have an edge in the game???? So let the flip go.

When we get to full ring the fold is even easier, and when we get deep stacked, it's a no brainer. The following example shows how easy it could be 250bb deep to stack even "competent" players, who will never ever ever fold KK pre.

Poker Stars NL Hold'em Cash Game, 9 Players

LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG+2: 263.40 BB
MP1: 141.20 BB
MP2: 257 BB
CO: 48.80 BB
Hero (BTN): 250 BB
SB: 100.40 BB
BB: 107.60 BB
UTG: 51.80 BB
UTG+1: 258.40 BB

Pre-Flop: K K dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG raises to 3BB, 3 folds, MP2 raises to 10BB, CO folds, Hero calls 10BB,
(utg is an unknown, 52bb deep, 3bettor is running 19/13 over 75 hands with no 3bets and 257bb deep. Its an easy cold call of the 3 bet. I want to keep in UTG assuming he is behind, and I do not want to fold out 3bettors hands I am ahead of.)

2 folds, UTG raises to 51.8BB and is All-In, MP2 raises to 257BB and is All-In, Hero folds
(I am certain at least one of these players, if not both, have AA.)

Flop: (115BB) 3 Q 3 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Turn: (115BB) Q (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: (115BB) 9 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: 115BB Pot (5.6BB Rake)
MP2 mucked K K and LOST (-51.8BB NET)
UTG showed A A and WON 109.4BB (+57.6BB NET)

Had I had AA on the button, I was winning the entire stack of my deep stacked friend. I mean, how much more obvious does it need to be when UTG shoves after a 3bet and a cold call???

What about the LAGS, what about the retards.....blah blah. I think you need a very good reason to call an all in in this spot, and that would include reads on 4betting and shoves over 300+ hands. In absence of that info......

Thoughts on bluffing and "history"

You have to bluff.

If you don't, its likely you can only be a break even player at the tables, unless you are consistently lucky, which I am not. Bluffing works best when you play deep stacked. 100bb deep or less, and they are usually OK about getting it in with TPGK. Most of you reading this will no doubt be content getting it all in pre flop with AK on a coin flip. I have blogged about this previously in detail if you care to look. I find it bizarre that everyone is delighted to be getting it in with 47% equity preflop, but nevertheless, that's the way it seems to be. Why not just play roulette and stick it all on red?

So making big bluffs at 100bb deep is risky, you are usually getting called.

Here I lose a big pot making a bluff 250bb deep, but bluffing at deep stacked poker carries investment value that can pay us off later on.

NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players

LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

BB: 100 BB
UTG: 215.20 BB
Hero (CO): 263.20 BB
BTN: 101 BB
SB: 255.40 BB

Pre-Flop: 6 3 dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG raises to 4BB, Hero calls 4BB, 3 folds
UTG is a tight nit 17/14 who only cbets when he has something.

Flop: (9.4BB) 2 5 J (2 Players)
UTG bets 6BB, Hero raises to 19BB, UTG calls 13BB
With my gutshot, and such a dry board, with is both deep, I make my mind up to bluff. I am aiming to get AJ+ to fold by the river. I do have a tiny amount of implied odds should I hit my gutshot, plus a decent amount of fold equity from AK/AQ, and mid pocket pairs.

Turn: (47.4BB) 6 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets 32BB, UTG calls 32BB
One could check here, as the 6 hits my hand for showdown value, but I am still sure I am beat, and think a big barrel can get a fold. It's clear he has a single pair hand, as a set is not check calling that turn usually.

River: (111.4BB) 2 (2 Players)
UTG checks, Hero bets 92BB, UTG calls 92BB
In for a penny.......

Results: 295.4BB Pot (14.4BB Rake)
UTG showed Q Q and WON 281BB (+134BB NET)
Hero showed 6 3 and LOST (-147BB NET)
I know, I know, he's a station, but man, how can you call there with QQ, I scream at the screen. Deep down, though, I think I am just an idiot.

So that was the bluffing bit, now to the "history" bit........

NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

SB: 125 BB
BB: 62.50 BB
UTG: 434.75 BB
Hero (CO): 319.50 BB
BTN: 317 BB

Pre-Flop: 8 6 dealt to Hero (CO)
UTG raises to 5BB, Hero calls 5BB, BTN calls 5BB, 2 folds
So same scenario as before, I float off the aforementioned Mr Nit calling stations dumb UTG over-raise, with a hand just right for such an occasion, cracking his big pairs and getting paid off with his handsome stack.

Flop: (16.75BB) 7 A 9 (3 Players)
UTG bets 11BB, Hero calls 11BB, BTN folds
I have 34% against his range here, plus the implied odds, which are huge, so an easy call.

Turn: (38.75BB) 2 (2 Players)
UTG bets 25.75BB, Hero calls 25.75BB
I pick up the flush draw, to give me 9 more outs, and I am up against at least AK, AQ, AAA, 999, 777. I have 30% against this range, so it's an ok call, but I am really only calling this bet, because of my image as a bluffer.

River: (90.25BB) T (2 Players)
UTG bets 60BB, Hero raises to 277.75BB and is All-In, UTG calls 217.75BB
Oh beautiful Ten, the nut card. Station bets 2/3 pot, and my bluffing from our previous encounter now pays dividends, as I overshove jam the pot in a pretty bluffy way, very much expecting a call from his second best hands.

Results: 645.75BB Pot (32BB Rake)
UTG showed K A and LOST (-319.5BB NET)
Hero showed 8 6 and WON 613.75BB (+294.25BB NET)
In the previous bluff, I lost 147bb repping a set which he was incable of believing, here I rep a straight, and he is equally as non believing, and I make win a 645bb pot, and make a profit from my bluffing investment of 176bb. On a side note, really scary that someone would pay a bet like that off. Guy called me a moron in the chat.

Guess I'm not an idiot after all.

Pokerstars Microstakes

I transferred all my money off Pokerstars 18 months ago after a failed attempt at full ring mass tabling. Out of sheer boredom one evening before going to bed I had a look at the site and checked out some of the Isilder1 stuff. Then I noticed I have 30k of FPPs just sitting there. So I go and buy a $20 bonus token and fire up 2 tables of 200bb 6max 5nl tables.

I forgot just how great the software is there and had a blast playing these stakes for an hour. Crazy plays, 5 way pots, calling all-ins with bottom pairs v maniacs, all good.

So I think I will have some fun with this on my tiny laptop in front of the telly or whatever, and see if I can grind it up. I haven’t really blogged about stakes below 50nl but I think I can actually learn a lot there, which I hope to share here. I intend to use it for experimenting with different formats, providing I don’t busto. 20bi and I move up, if I get as far as 25nl I need 50bi, and anymore is wishful thinking. To make it worthwhile, I will only be playing the deep tables, preferable with antes, for 250bb.

Meanwhile I hope to get something organised where I can play my regular stakes at FTP within the next week or so. I really want to make a serious attempt at poker this year, and to do that, I need to get away from variance, and therefore I need to get closer to 50k months, and I am nowhere near that.

This year's poker, and is it getting harder?

This is normally the time to be publishing my thoughts on my years poker, and putting up a nice graph. This is where I was last year, see here. I had really high ambitions this time last year for a successful year, and to move up stakes. I was playing between 30 to 40k hands minimum per month last year, but this year its been 3 or 4k!!! This has been due to becoming very busy in my own business, which in turn has stopped my ability to spend a couple of hours each day playing. So there really is no point in doing a review of my year because of that. It's been disappointing, as I really would have liked to take a shot. Maybe 2011?

This year I have read a lot of posts on others' blogs about how the games are getting harder. Lots of moaning from established players who maybe made a lot through the "party" years as they call it, when the online boom started, who say its all drying up, and everyone knows what they are doing at the tables now . ...Seems a lot of sour grapes to me. Some of these dudes think they have some kind of right to other peoples money. Maybe they are just average players after all.

I don't think the games are getting harder per say, but I do think they are getting stupidly aggressive. Like super stupid. Many competent players at 6max in blind v blind, or 3betting v button will now be content to get into raising wars and all in pre with just baby pocket pairs, and other such their stupid obsession with fold equity giving them no option but to call a shove once they have built up a large pot pre and the odds they are offered. Post flop there is just a ton of non believing going on, which is shifting down from higher stakes I guess. All of these things combined make it harder to dip in and out of the games, as the aggressive dynamic takes some getting used to. The alternative is to move down stakes. My own strategy has been to reduce my bluffing and increase my value betting, as well as just 3betting for value, and just forget about 3bet bluffing.

I just haven't played enough to know how I am doing myself, but one thing I have noticed at 100nl is how the many of the regular players seem utterly incapable of folding. There is definitely a time for making bluffs at these limits, but aside from the "stab-and-give-up-pots", you need to be prepared to barrel your whole stack by the river to get a fold, and it's not my favourite situation.

Here is a hand to sum up, which contains all of the points above, where I am playing a competent experienced player , and where so much value lies.

LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $252.10
Hero (BTN): $282.95
SB: $100.50
BB: $77.25

Pre-Flop: 8 8 dealt to Hero (BTN)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $2.50, SB raises to $9, BB folds, Hero calls $6.50
Standard Reg stats with 11% 3bet , most of it in the blinds. I would actually fold sometimes in this spot, but not against an 11% range and the now fashionable double barrelling stats, with me in position. I can play quite close to optimally with my position. (Folding to any broadway, bet folding all other flops, or check/calling/folding, depending on the usual stuff)

Flop: ($19) 8 5 4 (2 Players)
SB bets $10, Hero calls $10
I flop the set. All the decision making now is about how to extract his stack.

Turn: ($39) 6 (2 Players)
SB bets $22, Hero calls $22
Villian repping the overpair.

River: ($83) 3 (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero bets $241.95 and is All-In, SB calls $59.50 and is All-In
The only likely 7 he can have here is pocket 7s (I was going busto to 67s no matter what happened), so he either has a hand like AK which will check fold, or the overpair, which might call a shove, and will certainly call a smaller value bet. Having done the maths on how often you need to get a call on the river with an overbet to make it profitable, (the equation hinges on how often you think your opponent with call you ...X%...) the x% calling range has become so high now at 6max, that its a no contest to jam the pot here.
Results: $202 Pot ($2 Rake)
Hero showed 8 8 and WON $200 (+$99.50 NET)
SB mucked 9 9 and LOST (-$100 NET)

Table bullies, maths and baby pairs

I normally just up-sticks and find another table when I have a non-spewy aggro donk (meaning, most likely one of the better 100nl players at 6max) seated on my left, but when there's some bad players at same table sitting to left, you just got to hang around sometimes.

That can lead to some interesting table dynamics, which in turn can lead to some high variance pots. As I have a pretty robust bankroll for these stakes, I don't have a problem with adjusting my play to their ranges and betting styles, and the history that develops between us through 100 or more hands, normally too small a sample to make anything clear pre or post based on stats alone.

Here I wake up with AQo in the cut off, and even before I raise, I am almost sure the Mr aggro on the button will 3bet. He has a 15% 3bet, but more importantly, over 283 hands, almost all of that has been against me. I have 4 betted him once, where he folded, but the other six or seven times in this session, I have folded. It's what I do I guess.

Here I 4bet to just under one sixth of my stack, as we are playing 140bb effective stacks. I have decided a while back, once we became deep, that there will be no 4bet bluffs from me against him, it's just too likely that he can outplay me if he decides to call or whatever. In other words, unless I am certain he has me crushed, I probably am going with the hand.

Instead of folding, or flatting my 25bb, he insta shoves, which really surprises me. I time bank and finally call all-in.

Pre-Flop: A Q dealt to Hero (CO)
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, BTN raises to $10.50, 2 folds, Hero raises to $25, BTN raises to $199 and is All-In, Hero calls $109.40 and is All-In

The first thing to note here is that hands like AA-QQ I don't believe would normally do that this deep, in position, from a good player. They would think about it first.....,and if including card reduction therefore I think its only around 15% of the time. I would have 24% in that scenario

That leaves AK or a bluff/crazy play with baby pair. He has folded to only one 4bet previously, out of 3 in total. I used to play deep stacks at full ring, and it was rare to see a shove from a good player with AK at 200bb. I would rarely do it. But AK is a possibility, say 15% likely. I would have 27% in that scenario.

So here is where the history comes in. I have set up a "3bet in position" stat on my hud, which showes how often a player 3bets in position. I am amazed to see that over the 200 or so hands we have played at the table, he 3bets my raise from any position a staggering 38%. To assign a proper range to that is difficult, but I think it will be pretty wide, as good aggro players understand fold equity very well against a positional player like me, and I also 4bet-fold too. I think he might do any pair 22-TT, suited connectors and gappers, some Axs hands, and a few random bluffs like JTo, 64o. This is a 13% range, wide because of our history as noted, and his aggodonkishness. I have 58% to this range, and I think its 70% certain he is playing like that based on the above.

our expected value might be something like this therefore:

$EV=15%(24%x270) x 15%(27%x270) x 70% (58% x270) = $130.48

I am getting actual pot odds of 40% to call all in (pot is 162bb, 110bb for me to call) , it costs me $11o and my $EV is $130.48. I think its profitable and a decent call, even though it's a situation I would normally try to avoid even arising.

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter
Hero (CO): $134.40
BTN: $199
SB: $100
BB: $101.50
UTG: $73
MP: $26.75

Flop: ($270.30) Q T 7 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Turn: ($270.30) 6 (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
River: ($270.30) J (2 Players - 1 is All-In)
Results: $270.30 Pot ($3 Rake)

Hero showed A Q and WON $267.30 (+$132.90 NET)
BTN showed 9 9 and LOST (-$134.40 NET)

Let me know if you think I spewed, or if you think my maths is out, which it could well be. Of course I didn't do these sums at the time, but I do away from the tables, and therefore decisions like this do become easier with a 30 seconds of thinking.

Finally, and most importantly, let me emphasise that calling an all in with 110bb behind with only 25bb invested is, normally a terrible play, and an auto fold. With 75bb behind, without history, I'm still considering a fold, although my 4bet would have been smaller.