Reconstructing my game, and "calling to re-evaluate"

These last few weeks I have not wanted to grind at poker. I have hardly played at all. One of my resolutions as I went into the new year was to try to re-structure some things (read leaks) in my game in preparation of moving up a level. That has been my current motivation, and firing up 6 tables everyday just hasn't been there. When I have done it, things haven't gone well, and all my own fault, which is not cool.

One of the things I have been looking at is making a decision on a hand, based on reads and sticking with that. The dreaded “Calling to re-evaluate” to be avoided at all costs.

So when facing a raise on the flop after cbetting with a strong hand, if you are going to call, and the inevitable scare card comes on the turn, you should already know what you are going to do in said scenario.

Here I raise with 88 and a decent aggro reg (33/27/18%3bet) floats my raise on the button. Now its worth noting here that mr aggro reg 3bets a massive 28% from the button over 296 hands. And he calls a raise on the button with 20% of his hands. So thats 48%......half his hands ,he plays from the button. That is simply spewtastic and we can begin to think about his range there. Any ace, any broadway with a king, and suited connectors and gappers are a 3bet I think. Why did I choose that range, and not, say, pocket pairs? Maybe you can guess yourself.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

BTN: $116.20 (116.2 bb)
SB: $117.40 (117.4 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $71.35 (71.4 bb)
Hero (MP): $106.25 (106.3 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with 8 8
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, CO folds, BTN calls $3.50, SB folds, BB folds

Flop: ($8.50) 2 7 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN raises to $14, Hero calls $9

Now I am raised on a drawy flop when I hit my set. I need to decide now whether I think he has the FD or a set, or some combo, or just a pure bluff. Do I shove with the current nuts, or call, or what???..............Well..........Ax of spades I think would 3bet preflop 100pc of the time based on my read. So I need to decide if this guy would raise a naked draw here, there being straight and flush possibilities on board, and one which he wouldn’t have 3bet on his button. And I can’t see it. I just can’t.

Turn: ($36.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $20, Hero raises to $88.75 and is all-in, BTN folds

So when the nasty 3rd spade comes, I have already decided what to do, because I still believe I have the near nuts to his range. So my check is for value - to induce his bet, and the check raise all in is to eliminate him sucking out with any silly flush on the river.

Results: $76.50 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 2 7 8 5
Hero mucked 8 8 (three of a kind, Eights) and won $73.50 ($36 net)

And finally, sure my read could sometimes be wrong (actually you should be able to deduce from my thinking he actually has a very narrow range), but I still have 23% EV on the turn against any flush which got there, plus a decent amount of fold equity against a straight and a thinking player.