Bet your strong hands or lose money

One of the very first books I read when I started out in poker suggested that everyone plays quads optimally, and there wasn't much point in talking about it therefore. I don’t think I agree.

Like all our flopped unbreakable nut hands (OK, there's still a str. flush there), we want to extract the maximum, and that’s all we need to focus on, as we cannot lose the hand. Extracting the maximum involves reading the board, and relating it to your opponents possible range of cards.

In this hand I raise 77 and flop the nuts against an aggressive and tricky opponent playing 25/21 who never likes to fold to cbets (0 out of 5 times), and by the turn, I have him drawing dead. The crucial thing of this post is that I opt not to slow play on the drawing stages of the board, which is the mistake I see so often at small stakes (the flop and turn).

Full Tilt, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $121.70
MP: $98.50
CO: $110.90
BTN: $108.90
Hero (SB): $110.40
BB: $167.20

Pre-Flop: 7 7 dealt to Hero (SB)
4 folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2
pretty standard

Flop: ($6) 7 7 6 (2 Players)
Hero bets $4, BB calls $4
Fantastic flop for me. Yes I have flopped the monster, but even better, against a good player with him in position on a super wet board. That means he will be aware that his perceived range (his actual cards are irrelevant) in the small blind has hit this flop and will hopefully play accordingly. Perceived ranged (what he thinks I think he has) will consist of mid cards such as 45ss, 78ss, 78o, 89ss, 89o, any 7, pocket 6s, gut shots with overs, any pocket pair, slow played preflop monsters v sb, a floated Ace high with overkicker and any spade draw. The fact that the majority of his hands will in fact have missed is irrelevant. This guy likes to take pots down in position, and he will love to bluff when his perceived range hits. To slow play here would thus be a huge mistake. To check raise here would be an even bigger mistake. (You would fold out his air bluffs)
His perceived range is a massive 25% that could float this flop
AA,JJ-22,A2s+,KQs,K7s,Q7s,J7s,T7s+,97s+,87s,73s+,64s+,A7o,K7o,Q7o,J7o,T7o+,97o+,87o,74o+
WE SIMPLY HAVE TO BET....

Turn: ($14) 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $9, BB calls $9
No change from the above, although by now it looks like he does actually have a draw or is slow playing an unlikely monster like 66. 45o and 45ss got there too. We now also have gutshots with a pair which were called with the 6 on the flop (eg 64)

River: ($32) K (2 Players)
Here is where we have to change tack. River is a huge brick, none of the draws got there. We need to check to let all the busted draws bet, let any K bet, and any of his floated air bluffs bet.

Hero checks, BB bets $15, Hero raises to $32, BB raises to $151.20 and is All-In, Hero calls $62.40 and is All-In
So we opt for a small CR to rep something like AK that is Raise/Folding with plenty fold equity to open the door for his bluff shove repping the 7 and the 66, which he kindly does for us, as he out-levels himself.

Results: $220.80 Pot ($3 Rake)
Hero showed 7 7 and WON $217.80 (+$107.90 NET)
BB showed 9 8 and LOST (-$109.40 NET)

Whilst there is a case for occasional slow play of these juicy monster flops, (super dry boards where its pretty clear he/you has missed might be one, playing against certain maniacs OOP is another) in general you need to be doing all you can to enable all the money to go in, which involves betting the correct amounts and thinking of ranges.

The fact that they will be folding much of the time is no reason to slow play. I hope this example shows why.

The Poker Blueprint review

Before I start, I should say, I don’t know anything much about the either of the authors of The Poker BluePrint. Aaron Davies asked me to review the book through this blog. I have never studied the popular, but pricey e-books such as “Let There Be Range” and “Exploiting Regulars” which this book sort of relates to, in that Tri Nguyen was involved in those .

Initially, I struggled to figure out whether “The Poker Blueprint” was for an online beginner, an intermediate player still down at the 10nl to25nl stakes, or aiming at the 100nl grinder trying to make a go of 200nl to 400nl . I think it is aimed at the 100 to 200nl area, but really, I couldn’t be sure. It’s important because we play differently at different stakes. For example, I would never 3 bet bluff below a certain level, and I would change my isolating raises too, depending on stakes.

The authors introduce us to the concept of aspiration of the Learner as opposed to the Grinder. I would have liked to see some more explanation of this, (through card examples eg a “learners” approach to AK versus the auto all-in grinder), as it’s an important point for players, giving an experimentation aspect which is essential to progress, and which few are able/prepared to do.

We then go on to moving up stakes. Aaron and Tri talk about taking shots at 30buyins, taking shots to learn from better players, moving down when losing 3 buyins and Risk v Reward. Whilst I don’t think there is a science to taking shots, I do believe that luck plays a big part in how we end up a “reg” at a certain stake. However, what isn’t discussed, and therefore which renders the argument a little hollow, is that of variance versus volume. It’s frankly the most important topic for shot taking, as it has a significant effect on both bankroll and psychology.

We are then onto Maths and Hand Ranges – with a simplified introduction, probability and odds including the concept of implied odds, I don’t get the point of wasting words on this, given every poker book on the planet goes over it, Harrington style. More should have been spent on hand range analysis, as that is where micro players struggle.

Fold Equity is a concept rarely discussed in books, and it’s a big shame this is not elaborated further, as its one of the most important things in 3 and 4 bet pots, but more importantly, in post flop 6max games in particular. Odds charts are shown, and again, I personally never quite get that in a book that is looking beyond a beginners audience, we all know it already.

Expected value is discussed, and ranges become all important here. Revising ranges based on betting patterns on later streets is not discussed.

A reasonable preflop 3 betting strategy is discussed along with a positional adjustment, and balancing our big hands, with our speculative ones. The preflop opening range is better, as the writer uses poker stove to illustrate ranges and percentages, which is a more advanced and original format for exampling preflop strategy, as we get some logic behind the suggested play.

Postflop strategy is where I feel this text does show some excellent strategy for an aspiring player, where the cbet, paired flops, and checking behind are all usefully illustrated.

No tilt discussion, which again is critical for plays moving from 10nl recreation and upwards. It must be discussed, surely??? This, and the aforementioned variance, are the 2 most important factors in becoming successful at online play in my view, more important in fact than poker skills themselves, which can be learned and honed at one’s own pace. But not with tilt issues, or negative variance, which ultimately translate into the bad beat jackpot mentality which can destroy an otherwise promising player.

Would I recommend it? Well the fact is, there simply isn’t anything much else out there at the moment in a consolidated volume for the aspiring microstakes online player. Ed Millars E-book is the obvious comparison, but it’s coming from a different perspective (primarily from a live low stakes player), and a slightly different era. It’s $37.00 as far as I know , easy to read and interesting.

Formula @6max = Being Humble!

I am not sure if there is an easy formula for beating the low stakes online game, but it is true there is a lot to be made if you follow one path in particular. If we can avoid Fancy Play Syndrome, and stay disciplined, and most importantly......we avoid being bothered about being bluffed. I would call this being humble, where you take the ego out of the situation (but not the player, as I think ego is important in poker). I don’t see how you can make at least modest money out of the game at these stakes following this mantra. And perhaps that is the formula.

I played a pot the other day which I thought illustrated just how even supposedly knowledgeable players sometimes just cannot bring themselves to fold in big pots (in small pots, often they will give up, that’s why stabbing at the pot is so profitable if you know which ones to go for) . The thought of being bluffed, even semi bluffed, where they even probably know deep down they are either crushed, or flipping a coin for the remainder of their stacks, is just too much for them. It's important to note these players, as these are the ones where the very over-rated concept of implied odds actually does come into play. And they exist in abundance at 100nl.

Here we have an UTG raiser who I have a note as to being a bit of a regfish, who offers good implied odds when he has a hand such as Aces, and he runs at 17/14 with 73% cont bet.

Mr Rock calls in mid position, running at 14/12 with a 5% 3bet. Probably set mining….

My trash K4s suddenly starts to offer great odds, as we think about how easy it is to play post flop with this, and yet how well concealed it is against these two.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details
BTN: $132.20 (132.2 bb)
Hero (SB): $122.85 (122.9 bb)
BB: $101.25 (101.3 bb)
UTG: $123.65 (123.7 bb)
MP: $100 (100 bb)
CO: $103.95 (104 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is SB with 3 K
UTG raises to $3, MP folds, CO calls $3, BTN calls $3, Hero calls $2.50, BB calls $2

Flop: ($15) 9 J 3 (5 players)

Flop comes down giving me a pair and a flush draw. I am not in love with getting it in with these type of hands, but when Mr rock calls the continuation bet, I don’t think he has a set. Looks to me like some kind of draw, or maybe a weak Jack, say JTs. I think if I can rep a set here, I can get 2 folds much of the time, and if not at least heads up with Mr UTG holding at least a big pair where I have 47% EV.

Hero checks, BB checks, UTG bets $10, CO calls $10, BTN folds, Hero raises to $55, BB folds, UTG raises to $120.65 and is all-in, CO calls $90.95 and is all-in, Hero calls $64.85 and is all-in.

I make a small mistake, however.....my check raise is too big, thanks to Full Tilt's Pot button, as I nearly time out from playing other tables and press it quickly.

Then...BANG..... first one, then the next shoves all in, and with 25% equity versus what I presume are their likely sets, or 1 set/overpair and 1 nut flush draw, with pot odds of 18%, I have no choice but to call off the remainder of my stack.

Turn: ($355.65) 3 (3 players, 3 are all-in)
River: ($355.65) K (3 players, 3 are all-in)
Results: $355.65 pot ($3.00 rake)
Final Board: 9 J 3 3 K
Hero showed 3 K (a full house, Threes full of Kings) and won $352.65 ($229.80 net)
UTG showed K J (two pairs, Kings and Jacks) and lost (-$122.85 net)
CO showed Q T (a straight, Nine to King) and lost (-$103.95 net)

And here is the point of my post. What we see when the cards turn over on the flop is my actually having a huge 44% equity against some retarded plays. The lack of discipline that sees players who clearly know the game, and yet continue to shove their money in with terrible equity on the tiny premise that they might be being bluffed (although I have to question sanity of the QTs rock overcaller who must realise he has at best only 6 outs with the diamond draw on the flop) makes these games entirely beatable…… provided you maintain discipline when you are put in the same spots.

If you can mentally calculate your equity in these bigger pots, you just cannot go wrong.

Forthcoming book review and…. Don’t Tilt because I’m coming after you if you do…

First off, I am just finishing off the latest from Aaron Davis, "The Poker Blueprint" which is a rare book in that it includes thoughts about microstakes online cash poker, and I will post shortly my review of it on this blog.

2nd , and I make no apologies for stating the complete and utter obvious, and because it’s such a huuuuuuuge big thing, please please avoid tilting if you possibly can. I tend to avoid prescriptive advice in this blog, (happy to leave that to others) and keep any advice here more as descriptive.. Except for tilt.

Because tilt, it’s the biggest killer of bankrolls, even more destructive than plain ole baaaad play for all but the very worst players, so a) don’t do it, and b) so I’m gonna talk about it a bit more.

Tilt is like an addiction….no matter how bad it is, no matter how bad you know you have it, no matter what people tell you, you can only fix it if you actually want to do it yourself. Until you make that step, doom will ensue. Tilt isn’t like not being able to fold AA on a 678 non rainbow 4 way flop facing a reraise. After a certain amount of hands, a little bit of reading, and a smidgeon of common sense, only the aforementioned uber baaad players continue to get it in with that.

No...Tilt is a red mist that affects otherwise talented and knowledgeable players, and raises its head at you as you think you begin to realise all the injustices of the universe, and how they point themselves toward your sorry little poker world. Your boat was cracked by quads 1 time too many matey, and now its time to fucking whine. And since no one can hear this whining, its time to do it through the bad beat jackpot scenario of simply proving your own thesis by example (eg 3 betting any two cards). The illogic of it is irrelevant, because you are gorging on the drug of tiiiiiiilt. And with one bad beat after another, the pure fix of it spurs you on to more and more horrendous plays, pronounced even more in the unforgiving NL environment that we play.

Now I have said before here, and I will repeat, no one can help you with this addiction, so forget about watching fancy vids, finding some formulaic book or whining in the forums. Just like any self-abuse, therapy begins with your own secret soul, the place where no one else goes, and thus only you can fix. That first step, the hardest, the most intimate, the least understood, only your solitary naked self, without your mum, your friends, or doctor, can make it with you.

Now the purpose of my post is not to help you manage your crappy tilt problems, because, as I said above, I CANT DO THAT, ONLY YOU CAN.

No, the purpose of this post, and the beauty of the mercenary, selfish, cruel world of poker, is to help you to take advantage of others’ tilt, and thus take their money.

Example of tilt coming up. 1st hand I am just observing, having folded, but mister big time nit playing 12/9 over 200 hands gets had by a loose fish who calls his 3bet with AJ and sucks out v said ubernit's AK….loose fish proceeds to leave the table to a torrent of abuse by stacked ubernit. We were only 3 handed and now we are heads up, me and the angry ubernit. Seems like someone might want to do some chip donating....

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 2 Players
Hero (BTN): $134.15 (134.2 bb)
BB: $94.55 (94.6 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with 6 K
I am raising any 2 against this guy.
Hero raises to $3, BB raises to $10, Hero calls $7

Ubernit insta 3bets. Its only the second time he's done it in 87 hands. It's got tilt written all over it and I know he wants to extract revenge on me, the git that's been stealing his small blind for 15 orbits. K6o would be thrown away quickly v an uberbit even with my button, and heads up. Normally I would let his likely AK have it and carry on stealing. But it looks like he is tilted, probably with a weaker holding, and frankly, my cards no longer matter, but my being in position after the flop is everything.

Flop: ($20) J 7 8 (2 players)
BB bets $15, Hero raises to $124.15 and is all-in, BB folds

Great flop for me. No broadway cards.Tilted nit insta bets, no pause, no thought, just click. But I think his range is in fact any 2 cards from his timing tell. And facing an all in bet, there are only 3 hands he can have in my view that he can continue with, AJ, QQ, KK and AA. Even tilted nits don't make spite all-in calls with bottom or middle pair in 3 bet pots, and my shove is going to show a nice profit in the long run against an opponent cursing in the chat box about his terrible opponents.

Results: $50 pot ($0.50 rake)
Final Board: J 7 8
Hero mucked 6 K (high card King) and won $49.50 ($24.50 net)
Happy days..

Reconstructing my game, and "calling to re-evaluate"

These last few weeks I have not wanted to grind at poker. I have hardly played at all. One of my resolutions as I went into the new year was to try to re-structure some things (read leaks) in my game in preparation of moving up a level. That has been my current motivation, and firing up 6 tables everyday just hasn't been there. When I have done it, things haven't gone well, and all my own fault, which is not cool.

One of the things I have been looking at is making a decision on a hand, based on reads and sticking with that. The dreaded “Calling to re-evaluate” to be avoided at all costs.

So when facing a raise on the flop after cbetting with a strong hand, if you are going to call, and the inevitable scare card comes on the turn, you should already know what you are going to do in said scenario.

Here I raise with 88 and a decent aggro reg (33/27/18%3bet) floats my raise on the button. Now its worth noting here that mr aggro reg 3bets a massive 28% from the button over 296 hands. And he calls a raise on the button with 20% of his hands. So thats 48%......half his hands ,he plays from the button. That is simply spewtastic and we can begin to think about his range there. Any ace, any broadway with a king, and suited connectors and gappers are a 3bet I think. Why did I choose that range, and not, say, pocket pairs? Maybe you can guess yourself.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

BTN: $116.20 (116.2 bb)
SB: $117.40 (117.4 bb)
BB: $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $71.35 (71.4 bb)
Hero (MP): $106.25 (106.3 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with 8 8
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, CO folds, BTN calls $3.50, SB folds, BB folds

Flop: ($8.50) 2 7 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN raises to $14, Hero calls $9

Now I am raised on a drawy flop when I hit my set. I need to decide now whether I think he has the FD or a set, or some combo, or just a pure bluff. Do I shove with the current nuts, or call, or what???..............Well..........Ax of spades I think would 3bet preflop 100pc of the time based on my read. So I need to decide if this guy would raise a naked draw here, there being straight and flush possibilities on board, and one which he wouldn’t have 3bet on his button. And I can’t see it. I just can’t.

Turn: ($36.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets $20, Hero raises to $88.75 and is all-in, BTN folds

So when the nasty 3rd spade comes, I have already decided what to do, because I still believe I have the near nuts to his range. So my check is for value - to induce his bet, and the check raise all in is to eliminate him sucking out with any silly flush on the river.

Results: $76.50 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 2 7 8 5
Hero mucked 8 8 (three of a kind, Eights) and won $73.50 ($36 net)

And finally, sure my read could sometimes be wrong (actually you should be able to deduce from my thinking he actually has a very narrow range), but I still have 23% EV on the turn against any flush which got there, plus a decent amount of fold equity against a straight and a thinking player.