There's a fine line between the pay-off-wizard and the "I don't-believe-you" line, and it's usually the difference between good and bad hand reading. I haven't posted that much on hand reading but thought I would try a bit of analysis.
Most important thing here (as with all hand reading exercises) is our opponent. This guy runs at 26/13 with a 15% CR and defends 50% of his blinds over a smallish hand sample, and has 3% 3bet. Aggression factor here I always ignore as I need minimum 1k hands for it to make any sense. Next factor is stack sizes, and we are both 130bb+ deep.
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details
BB: $191.10 (191.1 bb)
UTG: $118.05 (118.1 bb)
Hero (MP): $137.70 (137.7 bb)
CO: $121.65 (121.7 bb)
BTN: $116.30 (116.3 bb)
SB: $69.85 (69.9 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with T
K
UTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls $2.50
A slightly loose raise in EP, not something I usually do, but for some reason I did here.
Flop: ($7.50) K
J J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB raises to $18, Hero calls $13
So here is where the hand begins. Now I am about to fold here, but then I look at my position. I raised from UTG+1 and he knows this. He has a 3% 3bet which suggests his range is AK, AA-JJ. I can therefore eliminate these from his holding. I am also eliminating any J as these passivy guys always slow play their monsters. Hopefully, this could put him on AQspades, QTspades, QT, or possibly the nut flush or even naked baby flush draw. I think KQ is somewhat unlikely here, as, aside from him worrying about me having AK being the EP raiser, passives like this tend to check call all streets with TP, or do a spazzy min raise, for what they think is value. But KQ is still a possibility. Finally, in the tiny possibility he does in fact have a J, I can get his entire stack if a K comes, as I don't think these guys can get away from a boat. Weighing it up, therefore I change my mind and call.
Turn: ($43.50) 3
(2 players)
BB bets $27, Hero calls $27
Hmmm, I am still not happy, but even a dude like this knows not to let me draw, if in fact he does have the KQ and he thinks it's me who is drawing. So my line on the flop has to continue. His betting line just doesn't make sense to me (too small), unless he has precisely KJ and is valuetowning me, or is still semi bluffing with a strong draw.
River: ($97.50) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks
I am snap checking here 100% of the time. If he had fired the 3rd barrell I probably would have to call, given my decisions on flop and turn but I'm not sure, and I am hating myself at this point I am sure.
Results: $97.50 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: K
J
J 3
Q
BB showed 6 6 (two pairs, Jacks and Sixes) and lost (-$48.50 net)
Hero showed T K (two pairs, Kings and Jacks) and won $94.50 ($46 net)
In summary, I guess I never thought about the underpair, and he would have won the pot on the turn if any A, 9 or spade had come up, so I can't really fault his bluff as it fooled me. But his mistake was trying to bluff on a broadway flop v an EP raiser (it hits so much of my range), compounded by too small a bet on the turn, when in truth he should have just given up.
Most important thing here (as with all hand reading exercises) is our opponent. This guy runs at 26/13 with a 15% CR and defends 50% of his blinds over a smallish hand sample, and has 3% 3bet. Aggression factor here I always ignore as I need minimum 1k hands for it to make any sense. Next factor is stack sizes, and we are both 130bb+ deep.
$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details
BB: $191.10 (191.1 bb)
UTG: $118.05 (118.1 bb)
Hero (MP): $137.70 (137.7 bb)
CO: $121.65 (121.7 bb)
BTN: $116.30 (116.3 bb)
SB: $69.85 (69.9 bb)
Pre-Flop: Hero is MP with T
KUTG folds, Hero raises to $3.50, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, BB calls $2.50
A slightly loose raise in EP, not something I usually do, but for some reason I did here.
Flop: ($7.50) K
J J (2 players)BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB raises to $18, Hero calls $13
So here is where the hand begins. Now I am about to fold here, but then I look at my position. I raised from UTG+1 and he knows this. He has a 3% 3bet which suggests his range is AK, AA-JJ. I can therefore eliminate these from his holding. I am also eliminating any J as these passivy guys always slow play their monsters. Hopefully, this could put him on AQspades, QTspades, QT, or possibly the nut flush or even naked baby flush draw. I think KQ is somewhat unlikely here, as, aside from him worrying about me having AK being the EP raiser, passives like this tend to check call all streets with TP, or do a spazzy min raise, for what they think is value. But KQ is still a possibility. Finally, in the tiny possibility he does in fact have a J, I can get his entire stack if a K comes, as I don't think these guys can get away from a boat. Weighing it up, therefore I change my mind and call.
Turn: ($43.50) 3
(2 players)BB bets $27, Hero calls $27
Hmmm, I am still not happy, but even a dude like this knows not to let me draw, if in fact he does have the KQ and he thinks it's me who is drawing. So my line on the flop has to continue. His betting line just doesn't make sense to me (too small), unless he has precisely KJ and is valuetowning me, or is still semi bluffing with a strong draw.
River: ($97.50) Q
(2 players)BB checks, Hero checks
I am snap checking here 100% of the time. If he had fired the 3rd barrell I probably would have to call, given my decisions on flop and turn but I'm not sure, and I am hating myself at this point I am sure.
Results: $97.50 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: K
J
J 3
QBB showed 6
6 (two pairs, Jacks and Sixes) and lost (-$48.50 net)Hero showed T
K (two pairs, Kings and Jacks) and won $94.50 ($46 net)In summary, I guess I never thought about the underpair, and he would have won the pot on the turn if any A, 9 or spade had come up, so I can't really fault his bluff as it fooled me. But his mistake was trying to bluff on a broadway flop v an EP raiser (it hits so much of my range), compounded by too small a bet on the turn, when in truth he should have just given up.
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