suckout? Me? I don't think so

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker! The WBCOOP is a free online Poker tournament open to all Bloggers, so register on WBCOOP to play.

Registration code: 904254

An interesting hand came up where many may feel I sucked out and/or played it bad, including the other players at my table at the time, judging by the comments. But I don't think so. What do you think?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

Hero (BB): $138.10 (138.1 bb)
UTG: $127.60 (127.6 bb)
MP: $103.65 (103.7 bb)
CO: $151.30 (151.3 bb)
BTN: $140.25 (140.3 bb)
SB: $95 (95 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with T T
2 folds, CO raises to $3.50, BTN calls $3.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $15.50, CO calls $12, BTN calls $12

I squeeze TT, sometimes I just flat, it just depends. But, after my 3bet, when I get a caller and an overcaller, then their ranges (both standard regs who are capable of folding, and of making semi-bluffs) become quite polarised to 99-QQ type pocket pairs to the original raiser and speculative hands like JTs and baby pairs to the overcaller.

Flop: ($47) 2 6 5 (3 players)
Hero bets $41,
I have to represent AA here and I need to do this with a very big bet, which will fold out JJ-QQ.

CO folds, BTN raises to $124.75 and is all-in, Hero calls $81.60 and is all-in

Original raiser folds, but overcaller shoves his full stack, which is a further 120bb. So he has a set....

But does he?
Would you just shove a set against a guy who clearly has a lot behind and likely overpair? My guess is a thinking player wouldn't.

Believe me I tanked this for a while, but finally decided to call. I will give the full analysis of why after the result below.

Turn: ($292.20) Q (2 players, 2 are all-in)
River: ($292.20) 2 (2 players, 2 are all-in)

Results: $292.20 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: 2 6 5 Q 2

Hero showed T T (two pairs, Tens and Twos) and won $289.20 ($151.10 net)
BTN showed 5 6 (two pairs, Sixes and Fives) and lost (-$138.10 net)

Why did I decide to call? Well the pot was laying me 28% due to the large amount of money that had gone in. Even ignoring an unlikely but possible (say 10%) total bluff, given his overcalling range with the possiblity of so many semi-bluff type combo draws, I reckon my equity is actually around 52%. I also have a club to take away one of those possible combo outs. And even if you just go by what he actually had, (2pair) I still had 30% equity so was about the right price (just..) for a call.

Gritting your teeth and calling is not great, but as long as you use your precious timebank seconds to think through what he could be doing that with, rather than blind hope, logic can really help you.

In this case therefore, I don't think i sucked out, in fact I actually made a good call. And most importantly, before you criticise the size of my bet on the flop, note that in the chat box after, as my TT was shown down, the original raiser who timed down, but finally folded to my pot cbet, on the flop, did indeed have JJ, and I achieved what I was setting out to do, by repping AA.

Charitable Poker

It never fails to surprise me when I see some of the card combos people are prepared to play online, especially when you realise it's all for real money. I just wonder how some of these droolers actually manage to dress themselves in the morning, never mind them being able to figure out the process of how to deposit money on a poker site. Some seem positively determined to just give their money to you, and it makes me wonder if they wouldn't get a little more satisfaction by donating this cash to some kind of charity or worthwhile cause, even going up to a random person in the street and handing them $100 would get a startled and happy reaction from them, which is surely superior to donating within the faceless environment of an online poker room.

As an example I illustrate with this hand. The worrying thing is, this type of thing isn't that unusual.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details
CO: $160.50 (160.5 bb)
BTN: $30.20 (30.2 bb)
SB: $204 (204 bb)
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
MP: $80.10 (80.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with A A
MP calls $1, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, Hero raises to $7, MP calls $6

Flop: ($14.50) Q T 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $10, MP calls $10

Turn: ($34.50) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $16, MP calls $16

River: ($66.50) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $54, MP calls $47.10 and is all-in

Results: $160.70 pot ($3 rake)
Final Board: Q T 9 Q 7
Hero showed A A (two pairs, Aces and Queens) and won $157.70 ($77.60 net)
MP mucked 5 A (a pair of Queens) and lost (-$80.10 net)

He called the flop, turn and all-in on river with no pair and no draw, giving his stack to the BankofMBB, which I can assure you, is not a charity.

Looking forward...2010 and 2009 graph

One of my first posts here shows what my aims for 2009 were. I think I managed to just about get there.

I looked into the Pokerstars VPP thing, but in order to take advantage of it fully, you need to have a lot of volume. After a bit of experimenting with multi-tabling and AHK, I realised I still had so much to learn in just playing the game, so went back to playing 4-6 tables on a rakeback site where volume and rakeback are not related.

The big question we all ask ourselves is whether we are good enough to make a living from the game. As you can see from the graph below, there is no doubt I can beat the game just now, up to 100nl, as the majority of that sample is 100nl, both full ring and 6 max. I currently play around 15 hours a week at poker, seeing 20k hands per month. Some could actually live on just what I have earned through poker this year. For it to be more than just a decent side income however, with that volume, of course I have to be beating 200nl by this time next year, with an eye on shots at 400nl and 1000nl. I need to ask myself whether I want to put that kind of pressure on me, given I work for myself, and don’t always want the distraction of poker, especially when things are going bad. I would also have to think about whether I need coaching or should I carry on with my own brand of betting.

The alternative approach is one of an immediate start of 200nl tomorrow and balling it to 400nl by March to be a reg there by May or June. I am certainly bank-rolled for it. And certainly I could have a heater at the right time, which is probably all you need to cement yourself at the limit. But I have also heard the transition form 200 to 400nl is the hardest, and losing 10 buy-ins trying doesn’t appeal to me, which could happen even if I played perfect poker, as we all know.

The fact of the matter is, I have only been playing online cash poker for a year, and feel I still have a lot to learn. I think, like all businesses, (and I think of poker as a business) we need to think in 5 year plans, and therefore there is more than enough time for me to reach mid stakes without having to risk much too quickly.

Away from Hold’em, I have recently added PLO 6max to my game, which will add discussion and extra dimension to my blog, once I have something to say.

Finally, through my email above I have had a few tentative requests for coaching, which I haven't so far taken up, as I wanted at least 250k hands under my belt. If further requests came in, I would think about it for limits up to 50nl probably, if anyone was still interested.

Well that’s it, enjoy 2010.

A guide to beating Micro and small stakes? Maybe.....

Looking back over the past year, here are a few things I have learned about micro cash games. Don’t apply this to your average donkament poker unless you play really deep (and why play them anyway?) as much is different in that type of poker, having been through the sitngo and MTT route myself prior to cash.

1. Don’t play cash under-rolled.
It will tilt you when you lose. Your life will become fucked up.

2. Don’t tilt
This I can’t help you with, and I have realised it’s the most important thing, after bankroll management. Many otherwise good players simply cannot deal with running into bad variance, and end up losing far more than they need to. If your all time graph, over at least 100k hands is not smoothish, but instead very jaggedy and up and down, then I suspect you have this problem. Deal with it. Don’t watch videos by Jared, don’t read books, they can’t ultimately help you. Only you yourself can. So no advice. It would be wasted.

3. Don’t be a scaredy cat.
If you’re not prepared to put your stack on the line sometimes, play darts or snooker instead. You’re pissing it away. Its No-Limit for Christ sakes, which is positively made for bluffing, and where the boring maths geeks and nits play second fiddle to the real players, those who are prepared to gamble based on look and feel of boards and histories. But most importantly, stop always checking the river without the nuts. Learn to value bet.

4. Don’t be obsessed with winning.
Unfortunately most ignore or are simply unable to comprehend this very fundamental advice, which is very specific to poker.

5. Learn to hate your opponents without being in the slightest bit emotional.
And NEVER be emotional when a player who annoys you proceeds to bust you. Learn how to deal with this. But respect players while hating them, and switch off the hating after playing.

6. Don’t be a lazy student of the game.
Everyone watches training vids, reads books and the WSOP on the telly. That’s the easy part. The hard part is the analysis. I started to post examples on this blog, but that just scratches the surface. Its subjective and complicated, but you will learn. Work hard, or stop moaning when you lose.

7. Don’t cry about coolers and bad luck
Aside from the fact it’s boring, it fucks you up and tilts you.

8. Don’t be scared of making mistakes. Experiment. Think of it as an investment rather than a cost.

9. Don’t let yourself be run over
Although all good players 3bet, many play terribly post flop in these inflated pots. If you follow this blog you may know that much of my bankroll has been provided by the aggrodonks and the spewtards. They infest the low limits.. Although each has subtle differences, both will bully the hell out of you if you let them. And many do. Sometimes you just have to make a stand.

Here a 22/16/11%3bet aggrodonk bets my button steal for the 3rd time in around 5 attempts by me. I want to let him know he cant get away with that. So I call with a trash K4o with the aim of either taking it away from him on the turn, or losing my stack to him but letting him know that I will be calling him from now on every time, as he sees the trash I floated with.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

BB: $213.55 (213.6 bb)
MP: $59.05 (59.1 bb)
CO: $157.90 (157.9 bb)
Hero (BTN): $111.55 (111.6 bb)
SB: $165.10 (165.1 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with K 4
MP folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $3, SB folds, BB raises to $9, Hero calls $6

Flop: ($18.50) 9 7 2 (2 players)
BB bets $12, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($42.50) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $28, BB folds

Results: $42.50 pot ($2.10 rake)
Final Board: 9 7 2 2
Hero mucked K 4 (a pair of Twos) and won $40.40 ($19.40 net)

Needless to say he never 3bet me again for that session.


Hope that is of interest. Thanks for reading.

A Year Blogging - looking back

I started this blog 1 year ago, and so I thought I would look back at both the content of my posts and how they evolved, whether I think I have actually improved and similar stuff.

Using money I had won through a freeroll and grinded up playing up to 10nl, I deposited $510 onto Fulltilt in November 2008. I have managed to grind that up to a tidy 5 figure bankroll, without ever having added to the initial deposit. So as far as the Chris Ferguson $10K Challenge goes, I proved it’s perfectly possible. Hurrah for that.

With regards the stakes I played, I went from 10nl to 25nl, back to 10nl then from 25nl to 50nl and up to 100nl. In February I invested in a HUD and tracking software, which didn’t really make a huge difference to either my play or my results, in hindsight. Throughout this time I played full ring and I experimented with playing up to 18 tables. I found this somewhat boring.

In order to combat this boredom, I decided to muck about in late spring with a bet fold experiment. As Pokerstars was doing a promotion players at the time, I hopped over to that site, where I used a separate bankroll that I had grinded up, from an initial $100 deposit, to around $1000 playing solely sitngoes, almost all at $5.50 buyin level. I played 100nl full ring. Although I ran badly, I realised that when you start doing daft things like repping a set on any low board without either the relevant experience, but more importantly, while playing 16 tables, it’s a losing mentality. I tried this for a month without any real progress.

During that time I noticed how dreadful the problem has become, especially on Stars, of 20bb mass tabling push bots, which makes poker for non 20bb'ers (be they regs, fish, tags, nits, lags, fullstakers, half stacker and so on) far more difficult, to just have a game of No Limit Holdem. I think its worth noting that here, it being a micro and small stakes problem. I posted an entry about my feelings here, and a particular vocal response was effected by the "shortstack heroes", Lorin and Travis here. Although the discussion was constructive (you need to read the comments with my response as well as their post), my opinion of the mindset of someone that wishes to mass table at 20bb is still somewhat low, to say the least, and in fact it depresses the hell out of me that a) so many people seem to want to do it, and b) the sites continue to allow 20bb mass tabling. What is as depressing is that these guys genuinely aspire to this kind of activity and therefore they are defo here to stay. Durrrrr recently gave an interesting interview on his thoughts on it, and where the real skill lies, which I found highly encouraging. Not to put the boot in to just shortstackers however, I do feel a similar disregard to the 24tabling full ring 100bb autohotkey Reg Stars/Fulltilt bots, although they are far, far easier to exploit than good shortstackers, and have kindly provided me with a healthy amount of my current bankroll.

At this time, therefore, I was becoming frustrated with poker, but thankfully, through some very formative sweats from a 6max player and fellow blogger whom I now consider a friend, I realised that this 6max format was the game for me, despite my good winrate when nitting it up at full ring playing 9-10 tables. I therefore left a profitable situation to pursue something I thought I would enjoy more.

Enjoy = happy
Happy>Poorer (maybe)
but …….long run?
Happy = rich person
Rich person>rich

I moved back down to 50nl and played 6max for the first time and ran well for my first month, cementing my loving relationship with semi-deep-stacked short handed no limit poker. (200bb is really where its at if you’re a skilled player in my view)

From July onwards I have played 6 max exclusively, with the odd fun stab at Heads Up, at 50nl and now up to 100nl, and over a large hand sample, 4 to 5 tabling, I run at just under 4ptbb/100. I am absolutely delighted with it. Especially since I think I still can improve much more.

Looking back through my posts, its funny to see some of my early ramblings and how I would probably do a lot of things differently with my limited experience over the year. But that’s the joy of the journey of blogging, and I am glad I have got this stuff down as a record. I also posted my thoughts on player types, which I may extend into a 2plus2 post shortly, as I have never posted anything of note on that forum, and yet which is read by so many microstakes bloggers.

As the year went on, I posted more on interesting spots and hand reading, and less on associated stuff such as software, poker sites and books. I hope to build on hand reading discussion in this blog next year too. I have deliberately avoided posting about non poker stuff such as sport or politics, and I have also tried to stick to micro stakes in terms of poker talk. Next year I hope to bring some discussion into small stakes up to 400nl.

I had one brutal day, in October, spread over 2 sessions, where I lost 14 buyins at 100nl. It took me 10k hands to get it back. It was devastating at the time, but I came out of it better, as I know I can now go through these swings and recover from these beats without too much hassle. The first time is always the worst in poker. (nevertheless I hope I never go through it again soon…)

In terms of people commenting on what I have posted, almost all of it has been constructive and informative which encourages my opinion that the vast majority of poker players at these stakes, and especially those who blog, are thoughtful, modest, generous and intelligent. You know who you are as you read this, and I hope you go far, there is still plenty of reacreational money to go around for all. Re the scummy haters and slaggers that do pop up in the online poker community, keep on doing it if you like, its water of a duck’s back to me, I assure you, and you’re the real losers.

I will post about where I hope to be this time next year under a separate post in the next few days, as I think this has gone on long enough, no? Hell, I might even post the graph for the past year…….

Making Laydowns?

One of the things I don't think I have been that good at over my time playing poker, and where I still need some help, is knowing when to fold. I had a couple of hands recently where a little voice was screaming at me to fold, whilst my gamble side was saying call call call. Still not sure if I made good decisions so would be good to get some input.

HAND 1
villian is 19/18/4%3bet over 128 hands

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details

UTG: $107.90 (107.9 bb)
MP: $101.50 (101.5 bb)
CO: $112.15 (112.2 bb)
BTN: $98.50 (98.5 bb)
SB: $110.55 (110.6 bb)
Hero (BB): $207.95 (208 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with Q Q
UTG raises to $3.50, MP folds, CO folds, BTN calls $3.50, SB folds, Hero raises to $14.50, UTG raises to $38, BTN folds, Hero folds

Results: $33 pot
Final Board:
UTG mucked and won $33 ($18.50 net)
Here I squeeze, due to the loose passive who had called from the button, to avoid a 3way pot with Queens, and for value as I think I have the best hand. UTG thinks for a while, presses time, and then re-pops. My experience here is almost always a monster, yet I have seen many of the coaches say that, at 6max, always get it in with qq, as you are up against AK so many times. My thinking here, against a tightish, non spewy utg player, is more likely to be AA-KK, and a shove from AK but would be happy for comment. For example, if you factor in JJ it is correct to shove here.

HAND 2
villain is 32/25/8%3bet and one of the worst, most spewy aggrodonks at this limit, and who is a big loser over a decent hand sample.

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
Poker Tools by Stoxpoker - Hand Details
CO: $207.90 (207.9 bb)
BTN: $129.65 (129.7 bb)
SB: $110.30 (110.3 bb)
Hero (BB): $100 (100 bb)
UTG: $446.15 (446.2 bb)
MP: $138.45 (138.5 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BB with 9 9
UTG folds, MP folds, CO folds, BTN raises to $3, SB folds, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) 6 K J (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN checks

Turn: ($6.50) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets $5, BTN calls $5
So now I am a bit suspicious. This guy cbets 90% of the time, yet he checked the K high flop.

River: ($16.50) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $12.50, BTN raises to $121.65 and is all-in, Hero folds
I can't see anything here beyond QT, KK and JJ. It's a common thing amongst losing players to slowplay monsters, especially ones like this guy, who just plays the notion of being able to bet people of hands, without considering what they may have. It's also a common thing for same losing players to shove all-in-overbet at some point, but usually the river, because they think it looks like a bluff and they will get called, when they have the mortal nuts.

It turns into a pretty easy fold for me, because I do not think he is nearly good enough to know how to elicit a call from me, and the action just reeks of a monster. But, please tell me otherwise, grateful for any comment.

Results: $41.50 pot ($2.05 rake)
Final Board: 6 K J 9 5
BTN mucked and won $39.45 ($18.95 net)